National Defence Committee on May 11th, 2009

[Ray Boughen, Conservative, Palliser, SK]

Thank you, Chair.

Let me add my voice to those of my colleagues in welcoming you here this afternoon, gentlemen.

Mr. Keating, the question for you is on climate change. How can we reverse or slow down climate change of the north? We know about CO₂ and emissions. From your perspective, what can slow down this process?

[John Keating]

I don't claim to be an expert on climate science, but I've listened to Dr. Steve MacLean, who is the president of the Canadian Space Agency. He says it's very important to have accurate weather models for climate change to understand what's going on. The dilemma is that those models are incomplete today.

One of those models, for example, assumes that the sun is a constant, which it clearly isn't. There are mechanisms to use space exploration to look at the sun, see what's happening with sunspots and radiation, and see what impact they may have on climate change.

Steve talked about the importance of identifying those things that need to be measured and finding more effective ways to do that. Satellites happen to be very good at some of those things, not just because you can look at space and the atmosphere, but because you can actually look at Earth in a very consistent manner, gather information from all of Earth, and bring it back to a central location consistently year after year.

I'm not a scientist who's sufficiently knowledgeable about which bits of information you want to gather, but the notion that spacecraft gather the information very consistently, reliably, and repeatedly, and put that into climate change models to enable us to make the right decisions is a very important one.

[Ray Boughen, Conservative, Palliser, SK]

Thank you.

Mr. Reimer, you talked about scientific research and desired methods. Can you expand on that for us?

[Chester Reimer]

Yes, I could.

Inuit are very eager to be part of the western scientific process. They're very eager to contribute their traditional knowledge, and they're also very eager to participate in what we often refer to as western science. I think the mechanisms are mostly process oriented. We're not just talking about hiring Inuit at the local level to go out and count fish. That may be one job for one person, but we're talking about using traditional knowledge that's been passed on from grandmother to grandfather to grandson to people who are living there today. Inuit observe animal migration patterns. They know if things have changed. They've been told by their great-grandparents that patterns change and animals disappear.

Connected a bit to your last question, we were told very recently, not even decades ago, that some things are changing. The animal migration patterns are changing. They were the first to tell us about climate change. Many people didn't listen. The mechanisms are: let's have greater partnerships, greater building relationships between academia, the member states of the eight countries, and especially Canada, and the traditional knowledge of indigenous peoples. But not only traditional knowledge—through their land claims processes and the land claim settlements, Inuit have created corporations and companies that are very willing to participate in other ways as well.

Thank you.

[Ray Boughen, Conservative, Palliser, SK]

Thank you.

Professor Coates, on reacting rather than formulating our own plans, could you let us know what you see would be required in formulating our own plans rather than accepting others?

[Dr. Kenneth Coates]

Yes. Quite frankly, it's a major change in mindset. I'm worried right now. The historian in me says that we're in a period of time where we're having these meetings and talking about Arctic sovereignty, but let's assume we have three years of really cold weather, the Russian exploration for oil off the Arctic sort of doesn't do very well, they back off their plans a little bit, and this issue goes back onto the back burner for another 20 years. That's what happened after the Manhattan, after the Polar Sea, after the Cold War, and after the Second World War. That is our pattern.

I think what we need to do is to actually look at how we incorporate the north—not just the Arctic but the north—into Canada as a whole. We need to just assume that regardless of what anybody else does, we have an obligation to know the north and control the north. We have an obligation to work with the local populations to make their lives as rich as we possibly can. That has not been our policy, and in fact we do tend to retreat south of the 49th parallel and to sort of wait and see what happens. That is of grave concern.

[The Chair, Conservative, Maxime Bernier]

Thank you very much.

Thank you, Mr. Boughen.

Mr. Paillé, you now have five minutes.

[Pascal-Pierre Paillé, Bloc, Louis-Hébert, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair. I will share my time with Mr. Bachand if there is enough left.

Thank you and welcome. I do not know if you had the chance to read the position of the Bloc Québécois leader. He sent an open letter to Le Devoir. From what I can tell, his views match some of yours. I will be happy to send you a copy of his letter.

I understand from what you said that maybe, in your view, the government lacks long-term vision where the Arctic is concerned. Is that a fair assessment of your comments?

[Dr. Kenneth Coates]

I would say that Canada lacks a long-term vision for the Arctic. This government has done a fair bit in the last little while, more than we've had in previous decades, to be sure. But I think the country is not quite sure what to do with the Arctic as a whole. I think it's a much broader issue than just whether this government, this time, this year has a particular plan in mind; it's whether we as a nation have truly understood what it means to be a circumpolar country.

[Pascal-Pierre Paillé, Bloc, Louis-Hébert, QC]

In your view, what will be the greatest challenge for the government when it comes to decisions that will have to be made?

[Dr. Kenneth Coates]

Is that for me or for...?

[Pascal-Pierre Paillé, Bloc, Louis-Hébert, QC]

My question is directed to either one of you.

[Chester Reimer]

One of the biggest decisions isn't about militarily protecting the Arctic. It is not about that. It is about potential environmental, social, and economic disaster in the Arctic. To avoid that, you have to work closely with the local communities. You have to protect the Arctic from tourism, so that it's done in an appropriate way. You have to protect it from industry, so that it's done in an appropriate way, and you have to protect it from bad government policy.

[Pascal-Pierre Paillé, Bloc, Louis-Hébert, QC]

I would like to ask one last question before yielding to Mr. Bachand.

Canada is huge. In northern Canada, are the challenges facing the government and the actions it must take different depending on whether we are talking about eastern or western Canada?

[Chester Reimer]

Is the question directed to me?

[Dr. Kenneth Coates]

These are very excellent and very challenging questions. There are huge differences, differences in the economic foundation, the oil and gas resources that go from northern Alberta up to the Beaufort Sea. We set very different agendas and very different possibilities than what there are in Labrador, for example. In Labrador and northern Quebec you have hydroelectric potential somewhat similar to what you have, say, in northern Manitoba. They're somewhat comparable issues. You also have issues of climate isolation, small population size--indigenous issues, generally.

The west has done a slightly better job of linking the north and the south: northern British Columbia, the Yukon, Alberta, up into Mackenzie, into northern Saskatchewan. I think the lines, for example, in Ontario are quite sharply drawn between southern Ontario and the north. So there are variations as you go across.

I think one of the issues for Canada, if I might, is that the provincial north and the territorial north together should be having a lot more discussions. There should be a lot more consideration of the common interests that link Labrador to the Yukon to the Northwest Territories to Nunavut.These things do not exist entirely within provincial structures.

One of the most interesting developments in this country is actually the winter cities movement, where communities that face similar climatic situations get together and share ideas. It's very successful. We should be doing that on a broader scale.

[The Chair, Conservative, Maxime Bernier]

There are 30 seconds left.

[Claude Bachand, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

Mr. Reimer, can you explain to me why, of the four Inuit territories, Nunavik, which is located in Quebec, is not included in Canada's Northern Strategy? Do you support this strategy? Are you trying to amend it? Do you require our assistance to do so?

[Chester Reimer]

The Inuit Circumpolar Council is not in agreement with defining the north in that way. It creates problems at the Arctic Council. It creates problems domestically when the Inuit of Labrador and the Inuit of Nunavik are left out. They live on tundra. They live on areas that are very much Arctic, and they're left out of research, of politics, of everything. So, yes, we'd appreciate some discussion on that.

[The Chair, Conservative, Maxime Bernier]

Thank you very much.

Mr. Payne, you have five minutes.

[LaVar Payne, Conservative, Medicine Hat, AB]

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

As well, I'd like to thank the witnesses for attending today. I have a few questions, and I'll start with Mr. Keating.

Obviously, it's a very interesting system that you have in terms of the automatic identification. I believe you said it would take six satellites to cover the whole.... Do you have any idea what the cost would be to implement such a six-satellite system?

[John Keating]

We have a very good idea of that. It's interesting. I talked about a series of constellations and those series of constellations providing different functionalities that meet national needs. The first one is the most expensive, because as well as paying for the spacecraft, you actually have to put the ground infrastructure in place: all these big dishes there in the north and in the south that have movable, pointing antennas; all the operation centres and the data sensors. The cost of that? The space piece is about $75 million; the ground piece is about $75 million. So for the first constellation that's $150 million.

From then on, if you have a similar-sized constellation, it would be about half the cost, and the long-term space plan includes a proposal to build that infrastructure.

[LaVar Payne, Conservative, Medicine Hat, AB]

How long would it take to put up that whole six-satellite system?

[John Keating]

It takes about three years to do that.

[LaVar Payne, Conservative, Medicine Hat, AB]

Right.

I have a couple of other questions in terms of the ships and the locator systems that you get their signals from. What about submarines?