National Defence Committee on Sept. 20th, 2011

[Bob Johnston, Regional Director General, Europe, Middle East, Maghreb, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Canadian International Development Agency]

Yes.

I think, as has been emphasized as well, until we get that sort of UN assessment and we get the Libyan plan itself, the NTC plan, we're not really responding to immediate requests from NGOs. We need to know what the plan will be and where they might fit. That's something we'll look at down the road.

[Rick Norlock, Conservative, Northumberland—Quinte West, ON]

Thank you very much.

There has been some interest and some reporting of that. What people need to realize is the United Nations is taking the lead here, and we're just assisting in that. Up to and until the complete wholeness of that occurs in a plan for national assistance, we are reluctant to go into an area where there's still some danger. Would that assessment be essentially correct?

[Marie Gervais-Vidricaire]

I wouldn't say we're reluctant. There's a consensus that in the post-conflict situation, it's essential that the international community coordinate through the UN. This is true in this case as it was in other situations. I would simply add that there are other organizations. You were asking if there were others involved. The World Bank is also leading some of the assessments.

[Rick Norlock, Conservative, Northumberland—Quinte West, ON]

Thank you very much.

I know this is a tender area. It was explored somewhat by Mr. McKay. Has there been some expression of interest by the greater African community to be involved in this process?

[Sandra McCardell]

I wouldn't say there has been in particular on the stabilization assistance front. Most of the other African countries aren't particularly in a position to offer assistance in that regard. But on a political level, they are certainly interested in playing a role and ensuring that their voice is heard, as we talked about earlier with Libya, as a member of the African Union and part of the continent. They are interested in re-establishing good political relations with the new Libyan government notwithstanding the hesitation of some of its key members. But that is an evolving process, and when you have this kind of change of government after 40 years, obviously people need to find their feet and establish new contacts and new avenues of dialogue.

[The Chair, Conservative, James Bezan]

Thank you very much.

Mr. Brahmi, you have five minutes.

[Tarik Brahmi, NDP, Saint-Jean, QC]

Mr. Chair, I think it would be beneficial if Her Excellency could give us a snapshot of an issue that we haven't heard much about so far: refugees. I read in La Presse that there were some refugees in Algeria, from both the pro-Qadhafi and the anti-Qadhafi sides. Is it possible to get an initial idea of how many refugees there are and what their situation is? I will have more questions after that.

[Sandra McCardell]

Quickly, I want to reiterate that, in Tripoli, I attended meetings with representatives from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and from the International Organization for Migration. They were in the process of helping refugees from neighbouring countries return home and providing continued support to members of third countries who were still in Tripoli and elsewhere in Libya.

I saw a good many Libyans choosing to return to their country on their own. Once they see that the conditions where they used to live are once again calm and livable, they go back on their own. So they do not need assistance from the international community. They just return to their villages by car with their belongings.

I will hand the floor over to Ms. Norton, who can give you a better overall picture.

[Leslie E. Norton]

Thank you, ambassador.

To make sure everyone is on the same page, I want to point out that there are both migrant workers and refugees, two completely different groups. Most of those in neighbouring countries are in fact migrant workers. According to IOM, some 685,000 to 700,000 migrant workers have crossed the Libyan border into neighbouring countries—and that is as of September 13. Of those migrant workers, 45% are third country nationals. I have here some statistics by country, if you are interested. In Tunisia, for example, there are 291,000, made up of both Tunisians and third country nationals from Niger, Bangladesh and so forth. In Egypt, there are over 220,000 people; in Niger, there are nearly 80,000; in Chad, there are more than 50,000; in Algeria, the number is 14,000; and in the Sudan, it is almost 3,000. There are also others who have gone to Italy and to Malta, and we are still talking migrant workers.

To date, IOM and UNHCR have helped more than 200,000 third country nationals go back home. They used to be largely Bangladeshis. The majority are from Tunisia and the rest from Egypt. It is also important to note that there are approximately 4,000 people who are considered refugees located in two refugee camps near the Libyan border; they are Somalians and Eritreans. There are seven Libyan refugees in southern Tunisia as well.

UNHCR is the main humanitarian agency looking after refugees. UNHCR is on the ground; we give them funding. As for migrant workers and third country nationals, IOM manages the efforts to ensure that these refugees receive the assistance and protection they need.

[Tarik Brahmi, NDP, Saint-Jean, QC]

Mr. Chair, there is something else that concerns me. It has come to light that a certain number of people who now sit on Libya's National Transitional Council used to be members of the previous government. I would like to hear about the potential friction that may arise within the council, to the point that certain individuals could be rejected owing to their previous allegiance to Qadhafi.

[Sandra McCardell]

That friction within the council has in fact existed since the beginning, given that it was set up by the former justice minister, a member of Qadhafi's cabinet. However, we and the council need to recognize that this regime is 42 years old. And during that time, some perfectly reasonable people have advanced in their careers and gained technical experience. They know their stuff. We don't want to lose them simply because they were part of a government that was in power almost their entire lives.

What's more, since the idea is to build an inclusive country, one that allows as many people as possible to contribute to its future, it is important to welcome into the government anyone who has something to offer the country and who cares about its democratic future.

The members of the council hold—let's call them—open and frank discussions on how to move forward and where to draw the line. They made it clear that anyone with blood on their hands could not be a part of the government. Around that idea, there are various points of view. They want to determine the period of time that someone looking to participate in Libya's new government could have been a part of the regime. Ultimately, it is up to them to decide and to do so in such a way that helps to create a solid foundation for the future. The idea is not to end up with a group of excluded people stripped of any role in their country's future. That could lead to more problems. There is an opportunity to form a larger circle with even more people. That is the kind of approach that builds on experience and national unity, something that is key, and that is the way to deal with the issue of reconciliation in the long term.

[The Chair, Conservative, James Bezan]

Merci.

Mr. Strahl, you have the floor.

[Mark Strahl, Conservative, Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon, BC]

Thank you very much.

I want to go back to the issue of weapons. I've seen media reports of the NTC forces uncovering large numbers of munitions, weapons. In the reports I saw, it appeared there wasn't a very coordinated effort to secure those, that it was a matter of how much one could carry in terms of weapons and munitions. It seemed there wasn't a coordinated effort to get that to the NTC. Obviously, some of it is being used in that conflict. More worrying, though, is what you discussed, that there are at least components of weapons of mass destruction or chemical or biological weapons. You mentioned that the international community is monitoring that. If these things are being unearthed, how are they being secured? If there are such weapons, what role is the international community playing to ensure that they're not getting into the wrong hands?

[MGen Jonathan Vance]

That's a great question. It is a concern, of course, for the international community, the potential for weapons proliferation. That's not weapons of mass destruction proliferation--we're not concerned about that right now--but the proliferation of conventional weapons, be they small arms all the way through to surface-to-air missiles. That is a concern.

There were large stockpiles. They're being uncovered as forces advance and Gadhafi forces withdraw. With the NTC as a governing authority eventually and with a fully re-established institution of armed forces and police.... I have great confidence in that eventuality, but at this point in time it's fluid. There are all manner of people who are involved here. Therefore the discipline that you might think of.... If the Canadian Forces were to come across a stockpile of weapons, what we would do with them is a different dynamic. It doesn't mean that the intent is not ultimately to secure them.

Don't forget there's also the Gadhafi forces in the process of retreating, the employment of mercenaries, and so on. This can cause these weapons to fall into hands that ultimately leave the country. So proliferation is possible, and I think that securing those weapons from the international community's perspective is very important. I think that the overall security of the nation will be in the hands of the NTC, but it's going to take a little bit of time.

Jill, did you want to...?

[Jill Sinclair, Assistant Deputy Minister, Policy, Department of National Defence]

I'll just supplement quickly.

In fact the issue of weapons proliferation is featured in the new UN Security Council resolution precisely for the reasons that the general has raised and that you raised in your question. There were a lot of weapons in this country before the conflict and there are many more floating around now. The issue of having the NTC assume the responsibility--they have made commitments on non-proliferation, small arms, all of their international obligations--is absolutely flagged in the Security Council resolution. It will require some international assistance, and that will be among the issues discussed by the Friends of Libya in the follow-up work that the ambassador and Marie and others have spoken about.

[Mark Strahl, Conservative, Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon, BC]

Do we know if the Gadhafi forces have any medium...? You know, the surface-to-air missiles are.... Do they have anything bigger than that, that can reach out greater than that, more medium- to long-range capability still?

[MGen Jonathan Vance]

No, not long-range, or not what you would understand as being long-range, so not intercontinental, not inter-theatre. They do have access to first-generation Scuds, but I think that threat has largely been eliminated now. The actual mobile launchers have more or less been rounded up. The potential exists that there may be one or two that have not been accounted for.

So there are Scuds and BM-21 rocket-propelled artillery, but these are tactical range weapons that would impact the fortunes of those who are trying to attack--or the civilians in their midst; this is the challenge. Just to reinforce the point, these are not precision weapons. These are area weapons. They have already shown the propensity to launch these at populated centres because there might be some military there. This is in stark contrast to the kinds of weapons we use, which, albeit expensive, are extremely accurate. You hit what you're aiming for.

Thanks very much.

[The Chair, Conservative, James Bezan]

Thank you.

Time has expired. Time goes by fast when you're having fun.

Mr. Alexander, you have the last of the second round. You're batting cleanup.

[Chris Alexander, Conservative, Ajax—Pickering, ON]

Thanks very much, Mr. Chair.

Thanks to all of our briefers for both your answers today and the work and achievements between the last session we had together and now. I really do hope that on behalf of all of us, you will pass on that gratitude for a job well done--so far--by Canada's armed forces and all the departments involved.

I have a few quick questions just to fill in information in areas that we haven't covered already.

First, we've seen where the resistance continues from pro-Gadhafi forces. Could you give us a sense, either General Vance or Ambassador McCardell, of how much of the population of Libya is in those areas? Is it a quarter of the population, 5%, 2%? I just don't have a sense of how much of the population is still in play and still vulnerable.

[Sandra McCardell]

I would say the major population centres are along the coastline, so we'd probably be looking at maybe 10% or 15%.

[Chris Alexander, Conservative, Ajax—Pickering, ON]

So it's relatively little.

On the NATO front, because we haven't really covered that agenda, the focus is at the UN today and the Friends of Libya, but down the road there will be NATO ministerials and NATO decisions, presumably, about how the mission continues.

Could Jill Sinclair or any of you update us on what the latest thinking from that front has been, both from commanders, if possible, and from the political level?

[Jill Sinclair]

Thank you very much for the question.

Just to track back and, as you say, Mr. Alexander, fill in some of the blanks, I think what needs to come through very clearly here, and as reaffirmed in the Security Council resolution, is that this is a UN-led process. Again, the new Security Council resolution puts the NTC, the Libyan authorities, firmly in the driver's seat of their future, and NATO, of course, is working in support of a UN mandate. So everything will flow from that broad context--that is, what do the international community and the Libyan people and the NTC as legitimate representatives want?

In that respect, I think the NATO mission obviously has been a success. It was dispatched rapidly. It has been extremely effective in terms of doing what it was supposed to do: protect civilians. The NATO Secretary General and, I believe, the Prime Minister have made it clear that the mission will continue until it's no longer required. Everyone hopes that will be sooner rather than later, and not a day longer than required.

[MGen Jonathan Vance]

For the assessment by commanders, I'll just reiterate: the momentum favours the NTC and their forces now. The momentum, if maintained, will see this operation beginning to wrap up in weeks. That's provided it's maintained, so it's a pretty important and critical phase right now.

[The Chair, Conservative, James Bezan]

A minute and a half, Mr. Alexander.

[Chris Alexander, Conservative, Ajax—Pickering, ON]

Mr. McKay mentioned the African Union and suggested that we might have lost some goodwill there. I would be more inclined to say they've lost some goodwill through their support of the Gadhafi regime--not all of the members, but certain prominent members who were on the public record.

But there is an issue here for the future of Libya about the attitude of neighbouring states and other states, principally in Africa, given that Libya is on that continent, and their willingness to host--potentially--forces loyal to Gadhafi. We saw the very high-profile motorcade to Niger.

Could you give us a sense of what signals we're picking up from bordering states, but also from Somalia, Eritrea, and others, where we know insurgents operating in many countries have had and continue to have connections?