National Defence Committee on Oct. 4th, 2018

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

Thank you very much.

MP Gallant.

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

Mr. Chairman, through you, my first question is for Richard Gowan.

You mentioned the evolution of artificial intelligence as a force that traditional diplomacy struggles to deal with effectively. Could you elaborate on the problem artificial intelligence poses to international peace and security, and why traditional methods of diplomacy cannot deal with it?

[Richard Gowan]

Artificial intelligence also presents a problem to me because I am a deeply untechnical person, so this is a generalist's comment.

We are seeing developments in terms of artificial intelligence, in terms of cyberwarfare, that the UN and other multinational institutions do not have frameworks to govern. The UN does not yet have the architecture that is necessary to manage, prevent or respond to any of the new forms of warfare that we are likely to see in the coming decades. This set of problems is separate from those related to peacekeeping and other parts of the UN system that may develop to deal with that.

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is seized of precisely these issues and has launched an initiative, which our centre here in New York is supporting, to grapple with the challenges of new technologies. I would recommend that you visit our website to see some of our early work on that. But the politics around this and especially the politics, I think, between China and the U.S. mean that it will be a highly sensitive process for the UN to advance.

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

What should be done in the meantime when there's a gap? Is there another entity that can fill that need?

[Richard Gowan]

I think the UN is the natural framework for multilateral agreements around artificial intelligence and other forms of technology. What is interesting is that my colleagues who work on this here say that companies in Silicon Valley, companies developing new forms of technology, are actually increasingly interested in talking to the UN, so I think the UN is the best place to manage this. As you know well, however, the UN has many virtues, but speed is not one of them, and we're still at a very tentative stage, frankly, in working out not merely the politics of managing and governing artificial intelligence but actually what is possible in this very rapid field. It is a huge mountain to climb.

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

Thank you.

You've been quoted as saying it's reasonable to ask why on earth the Security Council thinks that a UN force can do any better in Mali, even with the European reinforcements. Does the UN peacekeeping force have a chance of succeeding in Mali?

[Richard Gowan]

I believe it does. Although MINUSMA has many challenges, it is worth saying that it is a singular improvement over the African force that was briefly there beforehand. That is also true in the Central African Republic, if you compare the UN and African force.

I think it is worth saying, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, that the UN force has contained the conflict, but what will success look like? Success will look like a process of reconciliation between the different armed groups in Mali. Ultimately, that must be driven by the government in Bamako and by its opponents. The UN cannot create peace on its own. In that case what it can do is provide a security framework for the political process, and I believe that is possible over time.

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

Your analysis of the big five UN peacekeeping missions, including the Mali mission, shows that the missions will face worsening security and humanitarian situations, and peacekeepers will be facing worsening challenges. Can you elaborate on what these situations and challenges are, and what threats they pose to Canadian Armed Forces serving in Mali?

[Richard Gowan]

The challenges vary case by case, but in Mali, clearly the primary threats to the peacekeeping force come from asymmetric attacks carried out by non-state armed groups, including al Qaeda in the Maghreb. What we have seen in fact is that the western nations in Mali have been able to deal with these threats reasonably well. The experience of Afghanistan has prepared European and Canadian forces for this environment. The majority of casualties are among African contingents in Mali, which lack the equipment and the experience to operate in that environment. There has been good work in supporting those African contingents by giving them counter-IED training, for example, and I think Canada should involve itself in that too.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

Thank you.

Next is MP Fisher.

[Darren Fisher, Liberal, Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Thank you, gentlemen, for remaining. I'll gear this question toward Mr. Day, but I'm interested in both of your opinions.

Are UN peacekeeping forces adapting quickly enough to the changing role of peacekeeping, and is the changing role of UN peacekeeping creating any issues for political engagement or diplomatic efforts?

[Adam Day]

I think there have been some important adaptations in the last few years in terms of building intelligence capacities and understanding the conflict better. I think some other innovations, such as through the use of aerial drones to survey areas where we're not deployed in places, have made our geographics go much better than before. In some respects, then, the adaptations are actually quite good for a large organization. Obviously, it could be faster.

I think one of the interesting things I'll point to, when you talk about the link with the more political objectives, is that these huge missions have an enormous logistics lift and an enormous amount going on when it comes to the deployment and maintenance of troops and police and others. In my experience, that has made it harder to have enough attention span across the mission to focus on some of the political processes. I think some of the smaller, leaner, more politically oriented missions sometimes do a better job in finding political entry points.

I think the challenge there is that these capacities should be seen as leveraged on the political side. The extent to which you can develop strategies where the deployment of large numbers of troops and police and civilian assets then gets translated into political relevance and entry points is the big challenge for the UN. To be frank, in some settings we haven't gained enough political leverage. Mali may be one where we have slightly more. Overseeing the elections helped, as did participating in the political dialogue among the parties directly. Supporting the DDR process has helped fuse the operational and the political a bit, but it is a very difficult challenge.

Coming back to strategic reviews, it would be worth looking at the strategic review of MINUSMA. Ellen Loj led it, and she made some interesting recommendations for how to orient the missions I think more towards the political mandate of the mission.

[Richard Gowan]

On your question concerning adaptation, I think the UN is a more adaptive organization than we often recognize. Especially on the issue of intelligence, which five years ago was really a taboo subject, we've seen huge progress. A wide range of states are now strongly supporting UN intelligence gathering, so change is possible.

I think it is worth recognizing that UN forces are still in very, very difficult environments. Even a NATO force would struggle in a situation such as Darfur or South Sudan. The UN is still trying to manage those operational environments with fewer capabilities. So it is adapting, but it is also dealing with very daunting mission settings.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

You have a minute and a half, Mr. Fisher.

[Darren Fisher, Liberal, Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS]

Okay.

Are Canadian peacekeepers being properly utilized in current peacekeeping operations? You have a minute and a half.

[Adam Day]

I would say that in my experience, the Canadians are at key points in the mission like, for example, MONUSCO, a francophone one. They are leading the liaison with the national army and doing it very capably. I couldn't imagine a better contributing country for that. They're leading G5 plans in the east for overseeing the operations. I couldn't imagine a better member state to lead that, in particular because it involves liaison with the other troops there.

From my experience, we're getting a lot out of the Canadians we have on the ground, even in the relatively small numbers. I can't really speak from experience on the other missions, but if you could have that kind of capacity linked up also with troops, it would be quite an enormous boost to any mission.

[Darren Fisher, Liberal, Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS]

Thank you.

Thanks, Mr. Chair.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

Thank you.

Next is Mr. Bezan.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Thank you, Chair.

I want to thank our witnesses for being with us today. I appreciate all the comments.

I want to follow up on something you just said, Mr. Day, that you appreciate the Canadian contribution in the relatively low numbers. How is it received that Prime Minister Trudeau says we're going to send 600 troops and 150 police officers, and we show up with 250 and a rather specialized air task force?

[Adam Day]

It's worth pointing out that I don't work for the UN peacekeeping—

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

I know, but you are at the United Nations University. You study this stuff and you must get some feedback. You used to be there.

[Adam Day]

I think there's a certain level of wistfulness that the full commitment would be reached. There is a lot of excitement around the defence ministerial conferences that you've been leading and the commitment to a quick reaction force and others as well.

I wouldn't say there's disappointment, but there is a sense that if we could get the rest of that commitment, it would actually make a very tangible difference in the peacekeeping realm, especially because those are very big numbers in terms of what they can do for a peacekeeping mission.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Thank you.

Mr. Gowan, you wrote last month that you called on the United Nations to go back to its post-Second World War roots and not try to innovate. What are you suggesting?

[Richard Gowan]

I wish I didn't write stuff that people then read.

[Voices]

Oh, oh!