Within the limits of Moscow's current military operations, Ukraine is fighting the Kremlin to a tie, to a standstill.
It's true if Moscow unleashed all its conventional forces it could beat Ukraine in a war. More precisely, the Kremlin could seize any territory in Ukraine it wants, but even if it did that, it would be hard for the Kremlin to occupy and hold it because it would face a guerrilla war.
I don't think the Kremlin is going to escalate to that extent. If they do, there will be much larger sanctions and this will be an earthquake, geopolitically. Not only will there be much higher sanctions, but there will be much greater NATO deployments to the east, and Kremlin security will be diminished.
My sense is Moscow is waiting to see the results of Ukraine's presidential and Rada elections. Putin is hoping there will be a more flexible leadership as a result of those elections, and that the new Ukrainian government will make concessions that Mr. Poroshenko and the current Rada would not.
Putin will be disappointed in this. No matter who wins the elections, Ukraine as a political entity has consolidated around the position of moving to the west. Once this becomes clear, the Kremlin is going to have to make peace on terms that are consistent with Ukraine gaining back all of Donbass.
When this happens, I am not sure. It could be three years from now, it could be 10 years from now, but we can expedite this process. We can make it come sooner by one, strengthening sanctions on the Kremlin, and two, giving Ukraine the military weapons that ensure that even an escalation by the Kremlin will be bloody for the Kremlin.