National Defence Committee on Dec. 4th, 2018

[Andriy Shevchenko]

I would like you to take a look at this map. It actually shows the movement of the Ukrainian vessels. The blue line shows that, from your right to your left. Our three vessels were heading towards the Kerch Strait, as part of their normal routine procedure. The first time they were attacked, it happened on their way towards the Kerch Strait. That's where the ramming happened. That happened on their way to the stand-by zone. The normal procedure is that the ships would go to the stand-by zone, and then they would wait for their turn to go through the Kerch Strait. The first attacks happened even before that, and then, after our vessels decided to get away from the Russian military ships, on their way out, they were attacked. The first attacks happened again inside of the 12-nautical-mile zone, and the final attacks and the seizure of the vessels happened in international waters.

[Julie Dzerowicz]

Okay.

[Andriy Shevchenko]

To make a long story short, they followed normal routine procedure. That's what they had been doing throughout many years. This time, things turned a very different way.

From the legal point of view, our actions are based on the United Nations convention, and it's based on the bilateral treaty between Ukraine and Russia, which grants free passage for Ukrainian ships through the Kerch Strait.

[Julie Dzerowicz]

For me, it seems odd that there was a normal routine procedure that was happening, and then all of a sudden on that particular day, they decided that they were going to ram the boat, capture the Ukrainian soldiers and then arrest them.

There was nothing out of the ordinary that had instigated that action, to your knowledge.

[Andriy Shevchenko]

There might be several reasons for that.

First, Russia had deployed major forces into the region. One year ago, the situation was different.

Second, I think they could have some other reasons for this provocation: the upcoming presidential election in Ukraine, the G20 summit or some other things. I would not like to make any presumptions on that, but the situation is very clear. They had been escalating the situation in the region, and that was a natural continuation of the upgraded military presence in the region.

[Julie Dzerowicz]

I've read about the poor economic situation in Russia. To what extent is there a correlation between their escalation in the region and the poor economic situation in Russia?

Do you have a response to that?

[Andriy Shevchenko]

Many of us believe that one day a refrigerator will win over a TV set. That's exactly what happened in the end of the Soviet era. The economic sanctions against Russia make a huge difference, and I would strongly encourage us to work together on more punishing sanctions.

As was mentioned, I think we need to discuss very specific sectoral actions, and the avenue that was mentioned, meaning specific navigation of Russian commercial vessels, is something that we should look into. I'm absolutely sure that we should consider closing European and western ports for the Russian vessels that illegally operate in Crimea and that are related to illegal activities across the region.

[Julie Dzerowicz]

Okay. I think I'm out of time.

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

MP Alleslev.

[Leona Alleslev, Conservative, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, ON]

Thank you very much.

It's critically important that you are here, so thank you very much for this incredible presentation.

I often get people in my riding sending me emails and letting me know that they don't feel Russia is a threat.

I wonder if you could help me with that. Would you see an increase in Russian militarization and capability? You've given us pictures of increased nuclear missiles and capability—tanks, airplanes and ships. Have we recently seen an increase in military capability, and have we also seen an increase in Russian aggression, from 2008 in Georgia, to then in Moldova, to the Ukraine? We've also seen the poisoning of U.K. citizens on their soil, as well as now military aggression in the Sea of Azov.

Could you help me explain to Canadians why they should take the Russian aggression threat seriously?

[Andriy Shevchenko]

I can start.

It's about this enormous interconnectivity of the world today. The same ships that were part of the Russian aggression into Georgia were part of the Russian annexation of Crimea and part of the Russian navy operations at the coast of Syria.

Greater Russian military presence in the Arctic means more threats and more risk to Canada, and to all our other partners in the region. The Salisbury attack really tells us that no one should take for granted peace and the safety on our land.

Russia wants to destabilize the international order. They will try to interfere with the elections in the western countries that they are concerned about. It's not just about Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. For me, obviously it's about Canada as well.

[Leona Alleslev, Conservative, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, ON]

Thank you.

Ambassador Beleavschi, you were quite clear when you said that today you don't need to have a war to jeopardize the national security and sovereignty of a nation. You highlighted some of the cyber-attacks. Again, Ambassador Shevchenko just mentioned the Arctic Ocean.

Would you comment on whether or not Canada should take seriously Russian aggression that could happen right here on Canadian soil, and why we should, therefore, care about what's happening over there?

[Ala Beleavschi]

I'm assisting a very interesting discussion. I want just to comment on the previous questions and what you have mentioned.

You can imagine that having the frozen conflicts in the two countries and war in Ukraine is leverage for Moscow to keep these countries weak, to keep them under their control and to prevent the countries from moving towards integration into the space of democratic values. This is leverage that is used very skilfully.

Moldova's frozen conflict, as I mentioned, has a history of 28 years. Since Moldova's independence, it has chosen, as a strategic direction of its development, European integration, and since then, it has been so difficult to move forward because of the obstacles we are getting.

[Leona Alleslev, Conservative, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, ON]

Exactly. Could you talk briefly about cyber-warfare, things like money laundering and threats to banking and information systems, which is why perhaps Canada should also recognize that there don't have to be troops on the ground to jeopardize the sovereignty of a nation?

[Ala Beleavschi]

I mentioned in my presentation meddling in the election processes. This was real several times. I will also mention how much Russia has used the Transnistrian population in order to ensure that they had the best involvement in Russia's presidential elections. Out of 27 polling stations opened in the territory of Moldova, 24 were opened in the Transnistrian territory, because Russia believes that this is where the biggest share of the Russian population is living.

Cyber-attacks take place every day in Moldova. I believe there was a figure of over 1,000 per day that we are registering, so all this is used against moving—

[Leona Alleslev, Conservative, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, ON]

In summary, in your opinion, Canada should take the Russian aggression threat seriously, not only for its impact on the security and sovereignty of your nations but of Canada's as well.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

I'm going to have to hold you there. This has gone well over. We will have time to circle back. I think we know what the answer to that is, but I'm going to have to yield the floor to MP Spengemann.

[Sven Spengemann, Liberal, Mississauga—Lakeshore, ON]

Mr. Chair, thank you very much.

Excellencies, thank you for being with us.

I want to start with a personal word of thanks to the Republic of Georgia. Just prior to the 2008 war between Russia and the Republic of Georgia, the Republic of Georgia provided the middle ring security for the United Nations assistance mission in Baghdad, Iraq, during very difficult times. I had the privilege of serving in that mission at the time, and I owe a debt of gratitude to the women and men from the Republic of Georgia who provided that security ring.

I say this with a view to highlighting for Canadians the importance of the Republic of Georgia as an ally in upholding the rules-based international order. It's very important that you're here today with us, Ambassador, to represent your country.

I want to take you back to the mention of the 2008 war. I think your words earlier in testimony were that Russia did not pay a price for the 2008 invasion and aggression. Can you talk a little bit more about that and maybe give us your view? If you could roll back history, how could the international community have extracted more of a price on Russia for that act of aggression that really started the ball rolling towards Crimea and then today in Ukraine?

[Konstantine Kavtaradze]

Thank you very much. I really appreciate your kind words.

I fully agree with the assumption that, not formally yet, we are allies. We were side by side in Iraq and Afghanistan. I also mentioned in my presentation that Canadian and Georgian soldiers, officers and military, were fighting shoulder to shoulder there.

In a sense, this example that you gave now also shows interconnection. It's about the small Georgia there on the eastern flank of Europe and about Canada here. Also, it's kind of a continuation of our liberation that the distinguished member of the committee raised: questions about Russia and sometimes kinds of sentiments on why there are so many anti-Russian approaches. First, I'd like to stress that, when we are talking about Russia, we are not talking about Russian people.

Personally, I already mentioned that I have 30 years of diplomatic service, being part of Russia and Georgia negotiations back in 1995, when Shevardnadze was the president of Georgia. He was a guy who was for balancing the issues, and he knew Russian politics. Then at the end of his career, he admitted that he knew nothing about Russia.

The issues that we are talking about are the regime, the Kremlin and the politics that they're implementing, not about the ordinary Russians. Honestly, we can see that the Russian people are the same kinds of victims of the aggressive politics of Russia, the same as the Ukrainians and Georgians.

As to your question about paying the price, once again we don't want the Russian people to pay a price for that. However, at the same time when we are talking about these conflicts that we have, I agree with my dear colleague Ala about the assumption. Still, consider that they are not frozen conflicts. They're hard conflicts. When everyday people are killed and abducted.... It's not a frozen conflict in that sense.

In Russia they receive messages well. I know it from my experience. When there is no counteraction to the aggression, they continue with this aggression.

What we are talking about, not paying a price, didn't start in 2008. It started somewhere in the beginning of the 1990s. From the outset of the independence of these three countries, they were pro-western. Russia considered pro-western policies, although we all had—let's agree on that, somewhere in the 1990s—this perception that Russia one day might be a democratic state and part of alliances, even. They were ahead of Georgia in the 1990s in dealing with NATO.

However, the issues are that in the 1990s Russia invaded Georgia, instigated conflict in Moldova and didn't pay a price. It attacked Georgia in 2008 and didn't pay a price. Next was Crimea and the aggression in eastern [Technical difficulty—Editor].

Believe me, it's very important that the western alliance—not because the alliance is a military one but has shared values—be very vocal that Russia will pay a price if it continues with its aggressive actions.

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

Thank you.

MP Martel.

[Richard Martel, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, CPC]

Good morning. Thank you for being here. Your testimony was very interesting.

Mr. Schevchenko, my question goes to you. I do not know if you will be able to answer this, but, on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 representing all-out war on Ukraine's sovereignty...

...can you tell us approximately where we are on that scale?

[Andriy Shevchenko]

We are more used to counting the Russian aggression not on that scale, but on the scale of human lives that we keep losing every day. There was another Ukrainian life lost today.

It's hard to judge, but I think the dynamics are very clear. It has been escalating.

[Richard Martel]

You know that the elections in Ukraine are coming up. Are you in a position to predict whether Russian tension will increase as the elections draw nearer?

[Andriy Shevchenko]

I would not be surprised to see that, and 2019 is going to be a very important year, for both Ukraine and Canada, in terms of elections. In Ukraine we'll have two election cycles. Our presidential election is scheduled for March 31 and our parliamentary elections are scheduled for the end of October. I think this is a really important time when we would encourage our western friends to go to Ukraine and see, on the ground, what the Russians will try to do to interfere with the elections.

I'm sorry to say it and I hate to say it, but it looks as though Ukraine next year will be a workshop on Russian interference with the election. Thinking of cyber-attacks, thinking of media actions by Russia, I would strongly encourage Canada to learn from our experience. Going back to the question, I think there is a good chance we'll see Russia trying to influence the election, including through actions to escalate the military situation.

[Richard Martel]

In the past, there have been sanctions against Russia. I do not know whether I can put it this way, but the Russians seem rather unconcerned about it all. Do the sanctions get the Russians to calm down or do they make them react even more strongly? However, they are affected economically, and in other ways.

Do you feel that they have an effect on the the Russians?