As I see it, the maritime realm is where a good many interstate frictions are going to play out over the next quarter of a century. Then it comes to the theological issue of how many ships do you need to execute your responsibilities in terms of power projection and so forth? Currently, I think we are looking at 15 surface combatants, down from an original 16, which was the 12 frigates plus four destroyers. My anxiety, speaking personally, is that frankly we are going to run out of money long before we get to 15. We'll see.
Various models have suggested that you should be looking really more at 18 or 19 surface vessels, in terms of the cycle in training and repair and so on, to have enough vessels to project your presence in the region.