National Defence Committee on Sept. 14th, 2017

[Erin O'Toole, Conservative, Durham, ON]

Certainly, and that's up to this committee and to Parliament, but I do find that it recognizes the increased tempo of North Korean operations with respect to its nuclear program and with respect to its missile development. Would that be fair to say, that in the last year it's been—

[Stephen Burt]

As I said in my statement, there has been a notable increase in testing of both, under the current North Korean regime, and in the last year and a half to two years in particular.

[Erin O'Toole, Conservative, Durham, ON]

When that information was digested, and you said there's no sense that there's a threat.... I think “sense” was the term you used. You know, 516 Canadians died in the Korean War, and that war is still a ceasefire, right? There has been no resolution to that conflict.

Does that play a part in whether or not Canada as a participant in that conflict would be a potential target?

[Mark Gwozdecky]

As I said, we've had no indication that North Korea perceives Canada as an enemy and no evidence that it is taking measures to target Canada.

You mentioned Canada's role in the United Nations Command group of countries that took action in the Korean War. We are still a significant participant in the UN Command. We have six armed force personnel permanently deployed there. We are I think the third-largest country to participate in the exercises annually, with the United States, Korea, and others, to ensure that we have a vigilant posture with regard to the peninsula.

It's a part of the world that we take very seriously and that we've committed our people and our resources to, but as I say, we have not yet seen any direct threat from North Korea.

[Erin O'Toole, Conservative, Durham, ON]

If there's an ICBM threat to the United States and not to Canada, per se, the partial polar route of that ICBM and a mistake in the targeting systems or trajectory could mean that parts of Canada would be exposed, whether or not we are the target. Would that be fair to say?

[Stephen Burt]

I think in that kind of hypothetical scenario you can spin it in a number of different directions. I would go back to the fact that the regime in North Korea is primarily motivated by its desire to survive itself and sustain its rule. While their rhetoric is colourful and their behaviour occasionally strikes us as peculiar, they're no fools. They understand the consequences of that kind of an action.

[Erin O'Toole, Conservative, Durham, ON]

My final time will be spent on the delegation that was sent in early August that was alluded to. Daniel Jean, the PM's special envoy, and the delegation of six attracted much attention with respect to the case of Pastor Lim, but the reports of that delegation's work were that other issues of regional concern were discussed.

Could you outline what Canada's position was to North Korea with respect to their nuclear program and to their missile development at those meetings in August?

[Sarah Taylor, Director General, North Asia and Oceania, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development]

Indeed the national security adviser was in Pyongyang briefly in August. The primary focus of the mission, from our perspective, was to secure the release of Pastor Lim, which they were successful in doing, so we were very pleased with that outcome.

He did have discussions with representatives of the North Korean foreign ministry, and in the course of those raised the concerns we have regarding North Korean proliferation and the grave threat it poses to peace and security in the region. There was a discussion around those issues.

I don't have the full transcript of the discussion, but from memory the response of the North Koreans was what we've heard many times before.

[Erin O'Toole, Conservative, Durham, ON]

Is there a transcript of that discussion that we would be able to obtain? My concern is that shortly after the early August meetings with the Canadian delegation, the firing into Japanese exclusive economic zones took place. Certainly I take it that there were no undertakings made by the North Korean regime to cease. They seemed to actually step up their aggressive targeting, post the Canadian delegation.

[Sarah Taylor]

No, there were no undertakings made by the North Koreans. Again, the primary focus of the discussion was around Pastor Lim's case. At any opportunity we have, if we have interaction with the North Koreans, we raise our concerns both on the proliferation-disarmament side and on the human rights side.

[Erin O'Toole, Conservative, Durham, ON]

Would it be possible to obtain the transcript from those meetings for the committee's review, or is that confidential?

[Sarah Taylor]

I believe it's confidential, but I can check and see.

[Erin O'Toole, Conservative, Durham, ON]

Mr. Chair, could the committee request it, and if the answer is no, at least we've asked?

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

We'll request the documents and see where we get with that.

[Erin O'Toole, Conservative, Durham, ON]

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

I'll give the floor now to Mr. Garrison.

[Randall Garrison, NDP, Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC]

Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.

I want to start by saying that the NDP supported holding these hearings, because we think this is an important issue on which there's an opportunity for Canada to play a positive role.

I'll start by following up on what Mr. Burt said, because there's a tendency in the rhetoric that's emerged in the media and from some of the players to treat North Korea as absolutely irrational and suicidal. The remarks you just made are in line, I think, with what we in the NDP have felt, which is that North Korea tends to pursue traditional nuclear deterrence policies, and it understands how this has worked in the past and that its nuclear capacity is a way of protecting its regime and protecting its survival. I wonder if you could just say a bit more about that, because I think it's dangerous when we assume the players are irrational if they're not behaving irrationally.

[Stephen Burt]

I would say it's absolutely clear that the North Koreans are motivated by regime survival and that their behaviour is consistent with that aim.

With regard to the issue of behaving in line with traditional deterrence policy, I think it's important to remember that the deterrence policy we are familiar with from the Cold War era was developed over a long period of time and had a fair number of very tense moments. The risks of miscalculation on both sides are high in those kinds of situations, and the friction, particularly within the region between North Korea and its neighbours, is such that, as we've seen in the not-too-distant past, local conventional conflicts can spark up very easily. If there was a perception that the regime's survival was threatened in one of those situations, that could have very serious consequences.

I would be cautious about throwing around the phrase “deterrence policy” in the historic sense we have vis-à-vis the Americans and the Russians.

[Randall Garrison, NDP, Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC]

To be clear, there's no way that I was implying that I would endorse such a policy. In fact, the NDP has stood against the existence of nuclear weapons, and we were quite disappointed that Canada wasn't at the talks in New York and hasn't taken part in the attempts to ban nuclear weapons.

My emphasis really is on figuring out a way to deal with North Korea. I want to follow that up, since what both of you really said is that there's not a perception of Canada as a direct threat. Because we had a delegation in North Korea in August, is there any opportunity for Canada to play a role in pushing for the resumption of talks on an unconditional basis? It seems that North Korea has at least rhetorically said it would consider talks if there were no preconditions.

[Mark Gwozdecky]

We're absolutely supportive of diplomacy, but I think we have to be mindful of the lessons of the past and the positions of our friends and allies. Currently, the United States is not yet prepared to sit down on an unconditional basis. The North Koreans, on the other hand, have insisted that they will sit down only if there are no conditions.

I think it's important that we support our allies and partners to position those talks for success when they take place. That means the North Korean regime has to make certain undertakings that would give us some confidence that it is prepared to make modifications and begin to adhere to international rules and norms around non-proliferation, around Security Council adherence, around a number of human rights, etc. I'm not saying all of those things have to be preconditions, but right now it's deemed by our friends and partners that the conditions aren't yet ripe for any kind of successful resumption.

[Randall Garrison, NDP, Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC]

If we look back at the parallel with Iran, though, weren't the talks with Iran undertaken without any preconditions, and then eventually worked their way to a successful conclusion?

[Mark Gwozdecky]

You're forcing me to go back a long time in the memory banks, and I can't say for sure that you're correct or not. I do know that there was a lengthy period, several years in fact, of what we would call pre-negotiation before they actually sat down. A good deal of diplomatic effort went into preparing the ground for those talks before they actually took place.

[Randall Garrison, NDP, Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC]

Would you say there's a role for Canada in, if you like, the pre-talks, in preparing the pre-talks, in trying to work with the United States to see what progress we could make toward talks? I don't see any way out of this, other than disaster, unless there's some dialogue.

[Mark Gwozdecky]

I think Canada is playing a role. I think Minister Freeland has been very active and energetic in engaging her counterparts in all the principal countries in pushing for diplomatic solutions here and making it clear that Canada is available to offer whatever kind of assistance might be helpful in restarting those discussions and setting them up for success.

[Randall Garrison, NDP, Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC]

Okay.