National Defence Committee on Sept. 26th, 2024

[Lindsay Mathyssen, NDP, London—Fanshawe, ON]

The Civil Aviation Administration of China unilaterally changed the International Civil Aviation Organization's regulations in terms of certain flight routes. On January 30, they revoked the cross-strait agreements on certain flight routes. It's my understanding that it actually created a very dangerous situation. It jeopardized aviation safety, peace and stability.

Can you update the committee on what has occurred since then in terms of how that has undermined the strait and what has gone on since that decision of January 30?

[Dr. Harry Ho-jen Tseng]

Thank you very much.

It's actually a very complicated story, but in fact it's part of their reaction to our presidential election. Our presidential election resulted in the election of the person least welcome by China. They took a series of actions, following our election, to punish Taiwan, and this was one of them. In this unilateral change of the flight routes in the middle of Taiwan Strait, which are already very close to the median line, they now make it even closer, and not only that but there is no southbound. In the Taiwan Strait, there is no southbound route: They actually reactivated another route—M503—in the middle of the Taiwan Strait.

Now, if they fly eastward from the coastal areas to connect to this M503, either to fly northbound or to fly southbound, they are actually coming to the middle of the Taiwan Strait without you being able to discern whether this is a passenger flight or a military warplane. That has already taken half the distance they need to cross the Taiwan Strait, squeezing our air defence zone, so it is very much a national security concern to us.

We brought this up to ICAO. ICAO seems to be unable to find anything to check Chinese behaviour. According to the ICAO regulations, any change of the flight routes should be informed or negotiated priorly with your adjacent FIR—flight information region—and that is Taipei's FIR.

[Lindsay Mathyssen, NDP, London—Fanshawe, ON]

It's the fact that they didn't.

[Dr. Harry Ho-jen Tseng]

They didn't do that at all.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

I appreciate that this is a complicated question with a complicated answer, but two and a half minutes is, unfortunately, two and a half minutes. We are getting close to the time when we lose the room.

Next up is Mr. Bezan for five minutes.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Your Excellency, it's always great to see you. I appreciate your coming here and telling us how things are going.

Yesterday, it was reported that the People's Republic of China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on Wednesday morning. It fell into the sea near French Polynesia. This is the first time since 1982 it's actually announced it's testing an ICBM.

Do you see this as a further escalation of hostilities in the region by the PRC?

[Dr. Harry Ho-jen Tseng]

This news greatly surprised a lot of people, including me. Exactly what was the reason for this ICBM test being conducted?

There is one saying. I don't know how credible it is. Have you heard about the missile silo in Russia that imploded when they were trying to fire missiles from Russia to Ukraine? The silos exploded because of some malfunction. There's speculation that since earlier this year.... You've heard about the rocket force in China, involving all kinds of corruption. The leadership of the rocket force in China has been purged. Quite a few generals have been taken into custody, and some have committed suicide. Xi Jinping may have wanted to see if there was some corruption in the rocket force by testing the ICBM. By doing this, he can also supervise the rocket force to do a better job. It reportedly happened in Russia, with the explosion of the silo. If that happens in China, you can see how many more—

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Essentially, it's multi-purpose. First, it's to test the new rocket force; second, it's to escalate regional tensions; and third, it's to make sure that their missiles aren't archaic and dangerous sitting in the tubes.

[Dr. Harry Ho-jen Tseng]

One thing this testifies to is that you don't need an ICBM to invade Taiwan.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

I'm talking about a regional escalation, more so than just Taiwan.

[Dr. Harry Ho-jen Tseng]

It can impact the U.S. and Canada.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

I will just follow up on your comment that the PRC sees Canada as timid. You said it....

[Dr. Harry Ho-jen Tseng]

I didn't say the PRC sees Canada as timid. I said the group of former senior defence and security officers from Canada visited Taiwan, and after they returned to Canada, they said in an interview that Canada is—

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Canada's support is timid.

[Dr. Harry Ho-jen Tseng]

—among the shyest of the western countries in dealing with Taiwan.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Okay. I appreciate that clarification. They're saying we're being too timid in how we approach Taiwan.

I've also heard from some of the diplomatic corps here. Look at the PLA's navy and the air force interactions with Canadian ships and Canadian aircraft, including helicopters and the maritime surveillance aircraft—the Auroras and the Cyclones. As Ms. Lalonde mentioned, there were very dangerous interactions and intercepts done by the PLA. According to other diplomats I've heard from, they were more aggressive than other nations have encountered when navigating the Taiwan Strait.

Would you agree that, for whatever reason, the PRC takes a more aggressive stance with Canada than it would if the United States, Australia, France or Germany sailed through?

[Dr. Harry Ho-jen Tseng]

Thank you very much.

It's actually a very interesting observation. Indeed, they didn't come to challenge.... They challenged the helicopter. Why on earth did they choose the Canadian helicopter or Canadian warships to show hostility to?

I don't know. Really, I don't know.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

All we can do is speculate, based upon the comments from our former military and intelligence advisers—they were just recently in Taiwan, and we hope to have them at committee soon—that they just see Canada as being too weak.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Mr. Powlowski, who could never be described as shy, now has five minutes.

[Marcus Powlowski, Liberal, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON]

NATO recently said that China was enabling Russia's war against Ukraine. Certainly, if anyone understands the PRC, it's Taiwan.

All countries act in their own self-interest. China, probably more than most countries, acts in its own self-interest.

What is China gaining, either economically or politically, by enabling the war in Ukraine?

[Dr. Harry Ho-jen Tseng]

Every country has its own national interest, but for the Chinese Communist Party, this national interest is actually party interest.

Why is it that invading Taiwan, or why is the rhetoric of invading Taiwan in the interest of the Chinese Communist Party? It's because it needs a reason to show that its rule of China is legitimate. It used to be able to do that by giving the Chinese people economic benefits.

There seems to be an intangible social contract between the party and the Chinese people. It says to the Chinese people, “Forfeit your political rights to us, and the Chinese Communist Party will take care of your political participation and political rights. In return, we give you prosperity.” This is what the Chinese Communist Party has been doing for decades. It actually was able to do that, and it's maybe one reason that corruption in China was so rampant.

This is how it is trying to convince the Chinese people that the Chinese Communist Party will take care of everything politically, but economically, the people get the benefit.

Now that it knows it is not able to sustain that economic benefit, it is creating another legitimate reason to continue to get the support of the Chinese people. This is nationalism and nationalistic feelings. One thing about that is actually Taiwan, because it sees Taiwan not only as a renegade province but as a legacy of the Second World War. The Second World War is immediately connected to China's image of the so-called 100 years of humiliation.

It tries to justify what it does to the world as only asking for justice, because for the past 100 years, you have treated China with all kinds of unequal treaties. Now it is only asking for some fairness.

I hope you don't buy its argument, because this is all nonsense. If this is the case, why didn't it do that on day one of the PRC's establishment? It is only going to resort to this when other economic incentives can no longer be sustained. It's very easy to come up with all kinds of pretexts.

[Marcus Powlowski, Liberal, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON]

Do you think that part of the reason for China's support of Russia is that any victory by Russia emboldens them to be more aggressive against Taiwan?

[Dr. Harry Ho-jen Tseng]

I would agree with that.

I think that things are happening not in the way that Xi Jinping would have hope they would happen. It was probably not only on his mind but on the minds of many people, including people in this room, that when the invasion happened on February 24, 2022, it would probably take only a few weeks or a few months for Putin to take up a chunk of the territory in Ukraine, and then that would be it. Fortunately, it didn't happen that way.

Now they have come to the juncture where they have to huddle even closer with each other, because they are already seen as one.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

You're done, even if you're not done.

Representative Tseng, I want to thank you once again for what's turning out to be an annual appearance before the committee. I don't know whether there will be a third annual appearance before the committee. We'll have to see. Some of us live in hope. On behalf of the committee, I just want to thank you for your enlightenment.

Just following up on Ms. Mathyssen's question, there is an effort to get the IPAC resolution to a point of unanimous consent. For those of you who have some influence with those who might make those decisions, we'd encourage you to do so.

Colleagues, this does bring to a close our threat assessment on the Indo-Pacific. Frankly, I think we are a little on the light side on this threat assessment. I would be interested in off-the-line conversations as to whether there should be a follow-up to a very valuable, useful understanding of not only the threat to Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific, but what the implications are for Canada.

Mr. Bezan, it has to be very quick.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Just on that, Mr. Chair, I think it would be extremely helpful to invite the Canadian delegation that just returned to talk about this. I support that 100%.