National Defence Committee on Feb. 2nd, 2022

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

That leads into my second question.

Should China take over Taiwan, how would the threat analysis change for Canada? Given our submarine fleet—which I don't believe has increased since the last time both of you were witnesses here—how ready are we in terms of the Arctic?

[David Mulroney]

On the Taiwan scenario, what would happen first is a global reaction that would cripple the global economy. China would do that if it felt it was in danger of losing Taiwan. There would be immense economic chaos.

Also, China thinks in terms of island chains. It would push the U.S. Navy out of the western Pacific into the mid-Pacific. That would make it much more difficult to have influence and to do business in a part of the world that is very important to us. As I said at the outset, it has tens of thousands of Canadians.... We talk about a couple of hundred thousand in Hong Kong. The implications for us are significant.

I'll turn it over to Mr. Perry.

[David Perry]

To focus on the Arctic, in about the last decade and a half, or a bit more than that, we've seen incremental enhancements to our ability to operate in the Arctic. Certainly the new Arctic and offshore patrol ship that we have, which did a transit this summer, is giving us more ability to be more present there more of the time.

We absolutely need to move forward on a range of other initiatives that have been hanging up for a while, such as new icebreaker, to give us more of an ability to be there year-round and have better surveillance.

In the context of looking at threats from Russia and China in concert with the United States, modernizing the defence of the continent is now important, including but not limited to the modernization of NORAD. Part of that would look at renewing our submarine fleet, which is about to basically time out. I worry that, unless we really get moving on a new project, we won't have new submarines available before we have to unfortunately retire the ones we have now. Defending all three of our oceans against modern naval threats would require us to have new submarines.

[David Mulroney]

I'd like to jump in at the end with one comment on the Arctic.

As to my comment about flattering first, I remember a meeting of the Arctic Council a couple of years ago, where the Canadian minister present told the Chinese that he warmly welcomed their interest and presence in the Arctic. We didn't need to say that. It wouldn't be rude, necessarily, to sit on our hands and think. To welcome China sends a message of Canadian intent that is, I think, different from one that's in our interests.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Mr. Fisher, you have the final five minutes.

If you're running out of questions, the chair also has questions.

[Darren Fisher, Liberal, Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS]

I wasn't really aware that I had the next question, but I'm glad I get the opportunity.

First of all, hello to David. It's nice to see you, Doctor, after a long time. As I said earlier, it's great to be back on this committee.

Mr. Mulroney, thank you very much for your testimony.

I spent a lot of time at NATO meetings as part of the executive of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. Every time I went to those meetings, everyone I spoke to or everyone who spoke in front of the gathering of NATO representatives—to a country—talked about Canada's role in NATO and how we punched above our weight class.

We talked about Five Eyes. We've talked about all kinds of things today. How do NATO and Canada's contribution advance our country's defence and foreign policy interests?

I'll go to David, but Mr. Mulroney, for sure I'd love to hear your opinion as well.

[David Perry]

NATO has been a cornerstone of our international policy and it remains so today. We make a lot of valuable contributions there.

To turn to some of the previous conversation, I worry that we've put so many of our eggs in that particular basket. We have a lot of positions there, a lot of staff, and we have the regular meetings there, but there are other places in the world where Canada has interest. I'd look at the Indo-Pacific region in particular as an area where I'd like to see Canada put that type of sustained regular investment of people, of time and of presence that we put into Europe. That's not to discount what we get from NATO, because that's very valuable to Canada's defence and security, but looking for that level of commitment and engagement elsewhere, I think, would benefit the country.

[David Mulroney]

I couldn't agree more. If we were to get to what I would refer to as a real foreign policy, we would agree that we have to make tough decisions. We think about where the greatest risks to our sovereignty and to our national security are and I think they are now coming from the Pacific, so we either spend more or we make the tough decisions and reallocate. The same is true, in fact, for our diplomatic resources.

[Darren Fisher, Liberal, Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS]

How is our role in NATO likely to evolve as we continue engagement in Europe through enhanced forward presence in eastern Europe?

[David Mulroney]

That's not my area. I focus on Asia, but I think it's becoming more virtual than actual. What we need to do, and I see this more from a Canadian perspective, is see a realignment of our resources, including our navy, and continued realignment to the Pacific, acknowledging that there are many players in Europe, Germany included, who should be doing heavy lifting in NATO and crises in Europe, but not as many in the Pacific, although I think we recently welcomed the presence of the Royal Navy, the French navy [Technical difficulty—Editor]. This Pacific shift that we talk about is something we have talked about for three decades. We need to begin in earnest.

[David Perry]

What we could look to in the future is to have a more balanced type of engagement. We put a lot of emphasis, for good reason, if you just take the case of Ukraine, on the Russian tanks and artillery. We should be looking to put almost as much emphasis on what NATO, as a collective alliance, and its adversaries are doing in the cyber domain, what it's doing from an intelligence standpoint, economic involvement, economic linkages, and some of those other activities that are just as important to providing for the security of all the members of NATO as paying attention to the tanks and artillery.

[Darren Fisher, Liberal, Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS]

Mr. Chair, that's all I have. I'm not sure if there's any time left, but if there's another Liberal that wants to poke at something else—

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Well, this Liberal will take the prerogative of the chair and direct this to Mr. Mulroney.

Mr. Mulroney, you've had an outstanding career in Taiwan, in China and with Afghanistan. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that you are now a principal at St. Michael's College, an outstanding college associated with an outstanding university, namely the University of Toronto.

I take to heart your comments about the way in which the Chinese government activates, if you will, the theft of intellectual property. I'd be interested in your comments about, not specifically your institution, but the way in which that becomes a security threat for us all.

[David Mulroney]

Just as an update, I am no longer at St. Michael's College, and I can only say that my time in the university sector has increased my respect for government as an organized institution.

We're seeing, in China's activation of its espionage capabilities, how multi-faceted it is, how it uses traditional methods, cyber, infiltration, and what's referred to as elite capture—that is, bringing people onto Chinese boards, giving them contracts, giving their kids scholarships, providing free trips to promote its views—to begin to shape the Canadian debate. It's becoming much more sophisticated over time. It's also using ethnic media and Chinese language media, through their influence on advertisers, to shape the message in Canada.

It's both espionage and interference, and we're seeing it at an unprecedented level. Yesterday the director of the FBI said that they're opening a new Chinese investigation every 12 hours. I don't think we're as busy as that in Canada, but we are busy. We have a hard time taking in the totality of it, but it's happening. It's growing, and it's serious.

What's most worrying to me is the extent to which it victimizes innocent Canadians. I've talked to Uighurs who haven't spoken to 30 family members in five or six years, who can't even speak to their own mothers. The agony that this causes on a personal level across Canada is shocking and shameful.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

With that, on behalf of the committee, I want to thank both Dr. Perry and His Excellency, David Mulroney. Both of you have made an outstanding contribution to the deliberations of the committee. Interestingly, at our next meeting, on Monday, we will be talking about the very thing that you've just alluded to, Mr. Mulroney.

Colleagues, we'll adjourn the meeting to Monday. On the following Wednesday, we will be having the minister, the CDS and various assorted folks. It's to be continued.

Thank you. The meeting is adjourned.