Thank you very much for the opportunity to speak with you today.
My background in connection with this topic is that I have been working on the ground in Ukraine throughout the war, essentially in every other month. I've been largely working with the Ukrainian military, conducting assessments.
There are critical points that I want to get across to you in the opening remarks. The first is that the consequences of this conflict should not be and cannot be understated. The outcome of this war will not only determine the future of European security but will also determine the rules by which the international order functions, and whether or not those states that are more powerful are deemed to be able to exert control and influence over their neighbours in spheres of influence.
Second, and perhaps critically, NATO's ability to demonstrate that it can rise to this challenge is not just important in protecting us from Russia and Russian aggression but also in signalling to other potential adversaries whether or not we are able to deliver on our security commitments. If we are not able to rise to this challenge, then we will face serious security threats in other theatres.
When the war started, as was mentioned in the previous session, there were quite a lot of emphatic predictions made. My experience throughout the conflict is that it has never been on a very clear trajectory. We have been working in one direction and then another as we have solved operational problems.
The really important thing to bear in mind there, I think, is that the outcome is absolutely not set or fixed; it is determined by what we do. We have a huge amount of agency collectively in determining whether the Ukrainian armed forces are able to successfully achieve their military objectives or not.
Second is something that I think we have been much weaker on. While we have a clear military strategy at this point, we have a much less coherent political strategy. The reality of the situation is that Ukraine could achieve all of its military objectives on the ground to push Russian forces out of the country and Russia could still blockade Odessa, could still strike Ukrainian cities on a semi-regular basis with long-range missiles, and could keep Ukrainian airspace closed, essentially denying Ukraine's ability to have an economy.
Unless we have a political strategy that forces the Russian government to believe that it will gain more by negotiating in earnest, then there isn't an easy end to this problem. We need to be working very closely as allies in that goal.
I think that brings me to the final point I want to make in my opening remarks, which is that while logistics, the defence industry and our military are at the forefront of this effort, ultimately there are many levers of power that have to be pulled that are not controlled by the military. Canada's decision very recently, along with a number of its allies, to increase enrichment of nuclear fuels is a good example of how bolstering the alliance's energy security is critical to underpinning the political will to continue the struggle.
This is the time when a lot of the talk about processes in inter-agency and intergovernmental departments working well, which has been at the forefront of national defence strategies, is going to be put to the test.
I'm very happy to answer any of your questions on military considerations, which is my area of expertise, and looking at the Russian military in particular. I will conclude my opening remarks there and look forward to your questions.