I think the most significant effect would be in countries like Lebanon, Yemen and Egypt, where those grains have been absolutely critical for the food security of the local population. That is also one of the reasons the Russians are cautious, I think, or prepared to negotiate on this particular issue, because if they can frame starvation or malnutrition in those countries as being caused by NATO, that is something they are potentially willing to bring about.
If it is instead perceived in those countries as something that is being caused by the Russian blockade of Ukraine, that undermines their relationship with countries with which, in the case of Egypt, they have much more co-operation than others. In the case of Syria, they are actually a security guarantor to the Assad government.
I think that's an area where there is plenty of scope for diplomacy and in which we have some leverage, but it would be a humanitarian tragedy.