National Defence Committee on April 21st, 2023

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

That would be terribly efficient.

[A voice]

He's back.

[Dr. Jack Watling]

I'm sorry, but I have no idea what happened there.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

It was either the Chinese or the Russians—one or the other—who got you.

Mr. Bezan has three minutes' worth of questions.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I will be very quick, and hopefully we don't have any Russian information operations undermine Dr. Watling's testimony.

Dr. Watling, you mentioned the issue around the war of attrition we're facing, and in particular you looked at the bloody battle of Bakhmut. I am wondering about some comments that were made yesterday by the Wagner owner, Prigozhin, that this should be the end of it and that Russia should accept what it has gained and hold onto that territory. He isn't calling for any more advances.

War atrocities have been committed by the Wagner Group, not just in Ukraine but in Syria and elsewhere. What do you think the logic is behind those, which continue to put Prigozhin offside with Putin?

Second, could you talk about the resilience of the Ukrainians themselves, both in the battle for Bakhmut and elsewhere, and in their ability to make use of some rather archaic military equipment while continuing to surprise everyone with their effectiveness?

[Dr. Jack Watling]

Over the winter the Russian military wanted to reduce attrition in its own units, so it allowed Wagner to take control of a large number of mobilized prisoners to basically continue the pressure on the Ukrainians without pushing that attrition onto them. As a result, they were receiving a lot of equipment provided by the GRU through the Russian Ministry of Defence. That was removed once the Russian military got back in the driving seat. Prigozhin has fairly consistently been used as a critic, not of Putin but of the defence minister, Shoigu, and General Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff. He is doing that as an outrider for a different faction within the Kremlin. I could go into the details of who they are, but it is probably too specific for this committee. However, there is a certain amount of infighting and politics—

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

It would be interesting if you could send a written reply back to committee to provide that information on who he's working for and how he's being used as a proxy. I think it's something we're all actually very interested in, but time won't permit you here.

[Dr. Jack Watling]

In the interest of time, I'm happy to follow up with the clerk and provide some written comments.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

In the interest of time, we're going to have to cut it there.

Colleagues, I'm sure the conversations were very important, but they weren't nearly as important as the conversation between Mr. Bezan and Dr. Watling, so perhaps we can keep the conversations down to a dull roar.

For the final three minutes, we have Madam Lambropoulos.

[Emmanuella Lambropoulos, Liberal, Saint-Laurent, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair, and thank you, Dr. Watling, for being here with us.

You spoke about NATO's need for Ukraine to win this war in order to prevent potential threats in the future, and that the outcome still very much depends on what we do at this point. The next few months will be critical, and NATO has to help Ukraine avoid a protracted fight, in which Russia would eventually get the upper hand.

If you were in a room with NATO's decision-makers today, what is that one message you would be giving them that they need to do in order to help Ukraine push the Russians back in the next few months?

[Dr. Jack Watling]

I would tell them that we don't need large political statements anymore. This is not about getting ministers to sign off on new equipment; it's about the detailed, dull drudgery of working through all of the contracts to make sure that the equipment we've already provided can be maintained. There should be dedicated training for things like brigade and battalion staff so that the Ukrainians can integrate all of the different capabilities they're being given. We need to ensure the pipeline of training is coherent between Operation Interflex in the U.K., where we do basic training, and the company and battalion training across Europe, so that the Ukrainians have an assured pipeline for generating units that would be more capable than their adversaries.

It's the same thing with the supply chains in terms of our industrial base. This is not about big-ticket items; it's about very detailed work that just has to be lined up, racked and stacked. It's about discipline and follow-through.

[Emmanuella Lambropoulos, Liberal, Saint-Laurent, QC]

Thank you.

I'll leave it there. I appreciate your testimony, and you've taught us a lot today.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you, Dr. Watling.

I regret having to bring this meeting to a conclusion. I'm sure we could go on for several hours of further questions, but we are not able to.

On behalf of the committee, thank you.

Colleagues, before we go, I have a couple of housekeeping items that are more for information than anything else.

We passed the report of the subcommittee, and the anticipation was that we would start with the health study on Tuesday. The anticipation on the anticipation was that we would have officials, but the officials are not available, so we may have a hybrid study on Tuesday. If the health witnesses that will get us started are not available or not fully available, we may add in an American person with respect to the Ukrainian threat analysis. Stay tuned, as we're kind of scrambling on the study for Tuesday.

Minister Anand has agreed to be here on May 2 for the estimates. May 5 will be cancelled because of the Liberal convention. May 19 will be cancelled because of the Bloc convention.

May 9, 12, and 16 are reserved for the health and transition services study. Prior to June 1, you will receive an invitation from the French embassy for supper. On May 8, the deputy Polish minister is available, but can only meet members at 1:15. If you could indicate to me who might be available, the clerk will make some arrangements.

Go ahead, Mrs. Gallant.

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

At some point, if we are completely devoid of witnesses, could we put the ambassador from Taiwan to Canada on notice that he may be called on short notice to present an update of the situation in the Indo-Pacific, specifically with respect to Taiwan? This would only be if we find ourselves in the situation we appear to be facing next week.

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

You certainly won't get any objection from the chair on that. I'll bear that in mind. We'll see how we scramble for Tuesday. Ideally, we would stay within what we've already agreed to, but if there's a looming gap, we will....

Is there any other...?

With that, the meeting is adjourned.