National Defence Committee on Sept. 19th, 2023

[Shelby Kramp-Neuman, Conservative, Hastings—Lennox and Addington, ON]

Thank you.

My next question is, could you provide us with an update on the Canadian Leopard 2s that were sent over to Ukraine? Are they currently available for use by the Ukrainian forces in theatre? How many units are still operational?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Thank you, Mr. Chair. I'll answer that one here.

We sent eight tanks to Ukraine. They are involved in a battle right now in the Zaporizhzhia region. We have confirmation of that. As we mentioned, we had a report over the last few weeks that one of them may have been destroyed. I'm getting new reports now that it might not have been one of ours. We're just clarifying the issue. It seems like it was not one of ours, which means the eight tanks we have are still in the fight.

[Shelby Kramp-Neuman, Conservative, Hastings—Lennox and Addington, ON]

During the last session, we heard from a number of different delegations with regard to regional powers, including Poland, Romania, Latvia and Lithuania. They were all unanimous in their call for the Canadian government to increase our spending to 2% of GDP. Finland and Japan have also indicated that they have a plan to hit 2%, but unfortunately our government has made it clear that they do not intend to meet this bare minimum.

How has this affected relations with NATO allies that are currently dealing with these very real Russian threats? How has it affected our ability to deliver the aid Ukraine needs in a timely and effective manner?

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

You might consider that to be a political question to defer to your political masters, but you are all sophisticated witnesses, so I'll let the question stand.

[Ty Curran]

I might add that we deal regularly with our allies, particularly the ones you just listed. I think we've had the opportunity to make some fairly significant contributions in that area. As you know, we have forces in Poland that are doing training. We have the stand-up to the brigade in Latvia.

I think our partners are very happy with the work we are doing. However, they would always like us to do more. I think that's something we continue to look at.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you, Mrs. Kramp-Neuman.

Mr. Sousa, you have five minutes.

[Charles Sousa, Liberal, Mississauga—Lakeshore, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Thank you to all for attending.

You know, Canada, being the sixth-largest GDP country in NATO, is also the sixth-largest contributor to NATO. Canada is doing its part in that regard, but certainly we can always do better. I was taken by the tremendous amount of reception and gratitude we received in Estonia and Latvia, even in Poland, in recognizing that Canada has been a leading force and has contributed tremendously to the cause.

I was really taken by watching some of the Ukrainian recruits being trained by Canadians—not to fight, necessarily, but to defend themselves against the mines and the “dragon's teeth”, as they call it, and all the stuff that's created in trench warfare. I was taken by the colonels basically advising their soldiers not to get too friendly with the Ukrainian recruits—be calm, do the job, avoid friendships, and don't do Instagram, Facebook or any social media—never knowing if these guys will come back. That's the sad reality of this fight. These young kids are putting their lives.... They're brave. They're going out and doing the job, and Canadians are there to try to provide support where necessary. I'm very proud of our team and what they're doing out there, so thank you for what you're doing.

When I was there and I saw all this, I saw a tremendous amount of collaboration and support with Operation Unifier, with the other countries and states. I was also taken by the need for us to be responsive to article 5, should it exist, either in the Baltic states...and hence the tremendous amount of support that we have in the eastern front.

The obvious question is this: How much support is there, and how long will that area be secure, given the amount of ammo that's available to us? I'm getting conflicting reports as to how much we can withstand a defence measure there. Do you have a sense of that?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Mr. Chair, I'll take the first stab. Then I'll see if Alison or Ty or even Kati has something to add.

In the context in which I think the member is speaking here, it would be a very different conflict from what we see in Ukraine. I don't think the 155s would matter at that point. On the technological might of NATO, if you think of the fighters, which we're trying to get to Ukraine, these are game-changers.

So I think we can't really compare. We're concerned. I think this is why all allies right now are trying to play the balance of what we can provide that's already readily available, while the industry is helping in some of the contracts we want to lay. I think if Putin would cross the line there, the battle would change.

[Charles Sousa, Liberal, Mississauga—Lakeshore, ON]

I would assume that there would be a huge response by NATO and by the western countries involved. I also appreciate that the tremendous amount of display we have there is causing a deterrent to Russia for not doing anything further beyond where they're at in Ukraine. I do worry about Belarus, though, and surrounding areas in terms of insurrections.

One question I've always had—I still don't know this—is how many civilian casualties have occurred, and how many soldiers, both Russian and Ukrainian. I'm getting conflicting reports. How many people are actually being injured and how many people are dying? Do you have a sense to date?

[Ty Curran]

Mr. Chair, thank you for the question.

Our Ukrainian partners have resisted efforts to provide numbers, so we don't have an official source that says how many Ukrainian civilians have been killed or wounded. It's similar with their forces. There is online reporting that talks about that, but officially, from that point of view, it's not something the Ukrainian government has provided.

I'll defer to my colleagues at GAC, if they want to add to that.

[Alison Grant]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

That's correct. I agree with Ty on that answer.

I would simply add, on the deterrent factor on the eastern flank.... I'm going to mention the NATO summit in Vilnius again. It's the third time I have, but it's because there was an incredible focus there on defence and deterrence planning, and a very significant agreement on NATO's regional plans along the eastern flank. You've seen an increase in the number of battle groups that are stationed along the eastern flank. It's now no longer just the Baltics; you have four new ones in southeastern Europe as well—Romania, Bulgaria, etc.—as well as, of course, the surge in the battle group sizes in the Baltics. There's a real focus there.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you, Mr. Sousa.

[Charles Sousa, Liberal, Mississauga—Lakeshore, ON]

Now I have one more.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you very much. Now you'll have to come back on Thursday, then.

[Charles Sousa, Liberal, Mississauga—Lakeshore, ON]

He's so mean.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Only “one more”....

Ms. Normandin, you have the floor for two and a half minutes.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

As we know, a long war probably favours Russia, mainly because of its ability to renew its troops. We know its strategy: it can go get them from other countries if necessary. However, there may be something else that could benefit Russia in the long term.

What are your thoughts on the possibility that an election south of the border could put Donald Trump back in power? I would like to hear your comments on that.

I can see some people don't like that idea. I'm sorry to have to ask the question.

[Kati Csaba]

I think that's probably a question we would want to leave to our political colleagues to respond to.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

Thank you.

While we were on mission, we heard that Ukraine gave very little information to allies at the beginning of the conflict; it kept quiet. However, over time, it has opened up a little and been candid with feedback on the training we give recruits.

Is that still happening? Is there more and more information coming from Ukraine?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

I'll take that one, Mr. Chair.

I think that, from day one and even before the invasion, there was a lot of information sharing between Ukrainians and Canadians through our embassies and the Canadian defence attaché, but also through mechanisms like Wiesbaden, which I mentioned earlier.

There is also a lot of information sharing. We talked about cybersecurity. We welcome feedback on the training we provide to the troops. Our soldiers, our young women and our young men, see that every day. Every week, we hear stories about the number of lives saved because we trained medical technicians. We get direct feedback from the troops involved in the training. Staff also share a lot of information.

How to engage in the war remains Ukraine's decision, and we support it through Wiesbaden by updating the plans and equipment we send. Information exchange was constant, even before the war.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

As incredible as it may seem, I screwed up. I should have gone to Mrs. Gallant for five minutes.

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

With respect to NATO, we see our allies increasing their military effectiveness. For example, in Poland, they're doubling their armed forces to 300,000. What lessons can we learn from our NATO allies that they're taking and that we should be implementing over here?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

I'll start and I'll see if Ty or Alison wants to continue.

NATO is an alliance. Obviously, Poland is right on the border of Russia. I think we've worked very well together—since before the invasion started, as we had seen some signs of it—to mount and relook at our plans that we were going to work on as a coalition. Before the invasion started, we had three battle groups—the EFPs that we were leading in Latvia—and it's now grown to eight EFPs along the border.

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

You're talking about the battlefield. I'm talking about Canada.

What should we be doing that our allies are doing? What should we be doing in Canada to meet the expectations wherein the minimum of 2% has now become the floor instead of the aspirational goal?

[Ty Curran]

I think, Mr. Chair, the lesson we've learned from this is that there's an important element for us to be prepared for whatever is coming next. When we look at defence spending, I know that an opportunity to make sure Canada can continue to contribute along the way, as it has, is important. Looking at ways we can grow the work we're doing with NATO is also important. We've made some valuable contributions over the last years. We've already referenced our percentage—