Thank you, Chair Benoit.
Good morning, members of the committee. My name is Ed Whittingham, and I'm very happy to have been invited to present to you today.
The Pembina Institute is a sustainable energy think tank originally based in Alberta. We have offices nationally now. Pembina has done a fair amount of work on CCS, as have I personally, including looking at CCS options for energy companies; doing technical stakeholder and policy analysis; convening dialogues, particularly between companies, environmental groups, and landowners on CCS; as well as hosting a thought leaders forum on CCS where we brought together from around the country some of the thought leaders on the technology and how it's best applied. Those are the rough qualifications that I bring to my appearance here today.
I'd like to speak a little about the Pembina Institute's perspective on CCS, a printed copy of which you should have before you. I'll refer to it, but will not read directly from it, and put CCS in the context as one of the technologies used for fighting climate change today.
On that point, I should say right off the top that the Pembina Institute sees CCS as one of a number of technologies used. It's very useful for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and therefore useful for combatting dangerous climate change. But having said that, we see it as one technology that's part of a portfolio approach.
When we think about the deployment of CCS as a GHG solution, we also would like to see a scale-up of renewable energy and energy efficiency. We also want to see a fair distribution of CCS on the expenditure side as well. Those are two conditions for our support that I'd like to state up front.
When you think of CCS and its applicability in Canada, you have to think about it in three ways. One is, do we have the storage capability? Two, can we capture the emissions? Three, do we have the technology necessary?
On the storage side, if you look at the IPCC in its reporting, we have globally 2,000 gigatonnes of storage capacity in geological formations. If the world emits 32 gigatonnes of CO2 a year, that would give us 60 years of storage capacity. That's not to say we're going to capture every single emission within that, of course, but it's just illustrative to say that we have lots of places around the world, and in Canada, in the western sedimentary basin, to store emissions.
On the capture side, on the supply side, so to speak, it's best applied to large point sources. Do we have those point sources in Canada? Absolutely, we have over 100 facilities that produce a half megatonne of carbon a year. Where I'm from in Alberta we have 101 facilities that produce over 100,000 tonnes of CO2 per year. So there's ample supply.
On the technology side, can we do it? We've been injecting various gases into the ground for over 30 years now, whether acid gas or CO2, just as pure storage or for enhanced oil recovery.
On the safety side, maybe you'll read much about it in the media, but the institute feels that really safety is not an issue, provided we adequately select our reservoirs, we have competent operators, and we have good operating protocols that carbon capture and storage can be done in a way that protects both people and the atmosphere from leaks--although, of course, we have movements; you might have heard of NIMBY, and we have BANANA, Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone. In one of those cases, I think CCS is a safe technology, and proven, and by any indication.... On my flight out here I sat next to Larry, a roughneck safety specialist, and he said when dealing with different gases, CO2 is the least of our concerns and we can handle it. So the institute is not concerned there.
If you total this up, we see CCS playing potentially a significant role in reducing greenhouse emissions and combatting climate change. Our own economic modelling shows that under varying assumptions—including assuming that there is a CCS regulation and we have the right market forces harnessed, i.e. we have the right price signal for emitters—CCS could equal upwards of a 75-megatonne-per-year reduction by 2020. That's research that Pembina itself has commissioned.
I won't refer to the many studies out there that show the potential of CCS, perhaps save for one, because they're presenting afterward. The Integrated CO2 Network shows that CCS again could play a substantial role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions; in its studies, upwards of 55 megatonnes by 2020.
At any rate, if we look at Canada's overall emissions--what we hope to do, whether it's a 17% decrease or a 20% decrease by 2020--carbon capture and storage has a significant role to play. That's the good news.
I wouldn't be a representative of an environmental group if I didn't have some bad news to share. The bad news is, very simply, it's bloody expensive, any way you look at it. And as we know from the federal contribution of upwards of a billion dollars, from Alberta's contribution of upwards of $2 billion to get initial projects going, in the early stages it's going to require a significant public investment.
But the good news within that bad news story is that we can think of public investment or public support of CCS more broadly as being phased. In the first phase we're doing what we're doing. We're jump-starting CCS projects so we get three to five commercial-scale projects going. The colleague to my left here is a representative of one of those projects, and we have two others in Alberta, one that's more at the R and D stage, and potentially in northeast B.C., with Spectra in Fort Nelson, another project coming online. So we're already heading into that early adoption phase.
In the second phase, when we have wider market penetration, we can imagine other emitters, other companies and regulators, learning from those initial phases, providing the right kind of incentive, which isn't limited to a subsidy, by the way—there are other economic instruments we can use—and then companies developing plans for CCS more broadly across different point sources.
Finally, in the wide market penetration phase, we can imagine CCS being a requirement of any facility in Canada that emits above a certain threshold of carbon per year and that CCS is widely deployed.
As you can imagine, as we move across those phases, the cost of the technology will come down. In fact, there's some international consensus around the notion that if we have 20 projects internationally by 2020, that might be what we need, the critical threshold, to really bring the cost down and allow us to commercialize CCS and deploy it broadly, in the way that we need to, to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.
Lastly, how do we pay for it?
I've talked about the one form, just direct subsidy, which we've done and which the Pembina Institute feels is appropriate in the early adopter phase.
We also, of course, need the right price signal. I'm sure I don't need to lecture this committee on the various forms of carbon pricing and what those price signals could look like. Our own modelling says that if we're to meet the federal government's own greenhouse gas target by 2020, we need a carbon price of $40 by 2011, and that price needs to rise to $100 by 2020. The national round table and other bodies have conducted similar studies. The bottom line is, for CCS to be commercialized and deployed, we need an adequate price signal using some form of carbon pricing and following a phased approach. That we would consider to be the industry emitter coin.
On the public coin, as that price comes into effect and costs come down, there's certainly a role that we can use for different economic instruments, and as I say, not limited to straight subsidies. Consider accelerated capital cost allowance for the various components of CCS as a way of incenting it. Consider other economic instruments—I'm sure you have a laundry list—things like multiple credits for CCS, loan guarantees, low interest loans, perhaps an energy consumer levy for CSS, which is being used in the United Kingdom, and a voluntary purchase of CCS offsets, CCS bonds. There are a number of things that we can use to actually properly incent it.
Mr. Chair, members of the committee, those are my comments today. I look forward to taking your questions shortly. Thank you.