Good morning, Mr. Chairman, and members of the committee. Thank you for the opportunity to present the views of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers on what I think is a very important and timely study you're doing on energy security in Canada.
I believe you have a copy of our submission, so I'm just going to try to hit the highlights. I'll try not to repeat points that have already been made by the other witnesses.
I think any discussion of Canada's future energy system, including the role of oil sands, has to be put in a global context, and it has to be grounded in a few realities.
First, as Mr. Lambert has suggested, global energy demand is growing at a rapid pace. Many forecasts suggest an increase of up to 50% by 2030 to 2035.
Second, our view, very strongly, is that we're going to need all forms of energy, developed responsibly, to meet that growth in energy demand. I think it is clear that renewables will play an increasing role in the energy supply mix. I think it's also abundantly clear that fossil fuels, including oil and gas, are going to play a dominant role in the energy supply picture for some time to come.
Third, as conventional sources of oil and gas decline, unconventional sources, including oil sands and shale gas, are clearly going to play a more important role in meeting that growing energy demand globally.
In that broader context, taking those points, I think Canada is uniquely positioned to develop very abundant natural resources, as Mr. Wright has pointed out to you, including crude oil and natural gas, in a manner that provides economic growth and jobs, contributes to global energy security and reliability, and delivers what we consider to be responsible environmental and social outcomes.
I know that the focus of this discussion this morning is on oil sands, but I just want to make three very quick points about natural gas.
First, we are very confident that shale gas is a game changer and that we're looking at a very different supply outlook, a much more robust and abundant supply outlook, going forward.
Second, we firmly believe that the environmental concerns associated with shale gas can and will be addressed.
Third, we believe that there are opportunities to broaden the use of natural gas, specifically in transportation, and, importantly, in power generation across North America. If you put those together, we firmly believe that natural gas should be a foundational element of a cleaner energy future for North America going forward.
Let me turn now to oil sands. In terms of energy security, there is no question about the resource potential from oil sands. The current reported reserves are based on current technology and economics. As Mr. Wright has said, there is considerable potential for upside in those numbers. Over 80% of Canada's oil sands reserves are amenable to in situ recovery, versus mining. Both will be important for some time to come, but in situ will become increasingly important.
I think a very important point is that Canada has approximately half the global crude reserves that are accessible to private sector investment. That is, they are fully available to the private sector. That's a very important point, and I think it highlights the importance of Canada's role in meeting the future of global energy demand requirements. It also highlights why there is so much interest globally in oil sands in terms of investment.
Second, in terms of economic growth, I think there is also no question that the development and operation of oil sands is critically important to Canada. It benefits shareholders. It benefits investors. It benefits companies across the country. Most importantly, it impacts and benefits people who are directly or indirectly employed across the country, not just in Alberta, in oil sands activities.
Finally, our industry, I firmly believe, clearly understands that we need to maintain our social licence to operate. That is dependent on our environmental performance and our social performance and how we communicate about both. It is critically important that we deliver in both areas. I believe we are doing so. We'll continue to do so. That is not to say that there is not an opportunity for improvement. We recognize that, and I think there is an ongoing focus on that area.
We have a very good track record of significantly improving performance across a broad spectrum of measures, such as operational performance, environmental performance, and social performance. We clearly have an expectation around continuous improvement. We believe this is what Canadians expect of our industry. Our polling suggests that about 74% of Canadians support oil sands development if there are measures to improve environmental and social performance. That doesn't vary a great deal by jurisdiction, and frankly, from our polling results at least, it doesn't vary a great deal by political affiliation.
I think it is also important to note that Canadians don't expect a silver bullet in terms of environmental and social performance. What they do expect is a commitment by industry and by government to continuous improvement.
I think it's incumbent on us as industry to continue to improve performance. It's incumbent also, I think, on governments in Canada to ensure that we have a policy environment that enables responsible development.
Let me just make a few points in both respects, and then I'll wrap up.
From industry's perspective, we need to continue to invest aggressively in technology development, because that is the key lever to improvement in both cost and environmental performance.
We need to collaborate more effectively among ourselves, with governments, and with academia in terms of technology development. We need to work with governments to make sure we have state-of-the-art measurement and reporting systems.
I think we need to be as transparent as we can possibly be with respect to our performance around oil sands, and make sure that our reporting systems are open to credible new sources of information. I think we have a role, as Mr. Lambert said, to contribute constructively to the discussion around energy strategy in Canada going forward.
Governments, I think, also have a role to play in realizing the future oil sands opportunity. Some key elements that I would highlight for you include the following.
I think we need policy that is right for Canada, recognizing our particular energy circumstances.
We need policy that concurrently advances economic interests, environmental performance, and energy security and reliability. This is a three-dimensional challenge, which is in part what makes it so difficult.
We need policy that maintains open borders to trade and market access, both with the United States and potentially offshore.
We need policy that stimulates investments and the use of technology and innovation. As I said, I believe that is key to improving performance.
We need policy that's founded on ensuring that we have a competitive regulatory and policy environment in Canada, to attract investment and intellectual capital.
I think we need policies in energy that look across the energy system. We need solutions that impact both the upstream and the transmission system in Canada and, most importantly, the downstream consumption.
I would say we need policy that's founded on honest conversation, if I can characterize it this way, about energy and the environment. We need to be transparent about impacts, both costs and benefits, and how various energy choices impact throughout the energy system in Canada.
Finally, I'd say that a balanced approach to policy is only effective if we have a world-class regulatory system in Canada—and I believe in most respects we do in fact have that.
Mr. Chairman, members of the committee, thank you for your time. I look forward to your questions.