Evidence of meeting #111 for Natural Resources in the 42nd Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was forests.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Spatial Modelling Coordinator, fRI Research, Healthy Landscapes Program, As an Individual
In part it's because we can have a measurable impact, certainly along that leading edge. We can and we have been slowing the spread of the beetle eastward.
Liberal
Nick Whalen Liberal St. John's East, NL
But it's going to spread. Is there any thought that we can stop it? You said we need -35° temperatures. Is there some line in the sand here where it can't cross?
Spatial Modelling Coordinator, fRI Research, Healthy Landscapes Program, As an Individual
Weather and climate will obviously play a big role in this, but even in the last few years, that leading edge, the spread, has slowed a little, in part due to climatic conditions. It is possible, as some recent work coming out of Allan Carroll's lab and his group suggests, that if the densities are low enough right now along that leading edge, which they certainly are, we may be able to suppress those populations below the point where the outbreak can continue, so it may be able to be contained.
Liberal
Nick Whalen Liberal St. John's East, NL
It just seems to me that there's no free lunch in this. We suppress the fire, we allow the trees to age, we get more bugs in the old-growth trees, and then they all die and there's a forest fire. I'm looking at this, thinking we're just suppressing the bugs so that the age of the trees gets higher so we're even more likely to have more bugs. It just seems as though the more we try to interfere with this process, we create a positive feedback loop that makes it more likely.
There's a lot of guilt associated with this, but just because we're causing climate change and we're creating this horrible problem, that doesn't mean that trying to address it the way we're addressing it is a good idea. It just seems that we're going to head to a new climate state, and maybe we should just be trying to plan and manage towards the new climate state rather than trying to protect something that simply doesn't exist. We're already 1.5°C beyond the climate that caused this forest to exist in the first place. I'm trying to wrap my head around why we're trying to protect the past that doesn't exist.
Spatial Modelling Coordinator, fRI Research, Healthy Landscapes Program, As an Individual
In part, yes, we are trying to protect the forests, to keep them there. They obviously are a valuable resource for a large number of reasons. We are having meaningful impacts here. We are able to manage the forests.
I'll just reiterate that the goal is about long-term, sustainable, resilient forests. That doesn't mean we're going to just replant and get all these trees back up to being uniform, mature stands. We want to have a variety. We want to have that variation in the forests to keep these landscapes healthy.
Liberal
Nick Whalen Liberal St. John's East, NL
Wouldn't nature just do that itself? If a forest fire comes in and wipes it out, then just over time the seeds will be dispersed by the wind, the bugs and the birds, and a forest will re-emerge, or will it not?
Spatial Modelling Coordinator, fRI Research, Healthy Landscapes Program, As an Individual
There's no guarantee that a forest will re-emerge. We do know that with shifts in the climate, with shifts in soil moisture, these pine stands here, after large fire events, after large disturbances by mountain pine beetle or other forest insects and with the changes in the climate, may not come back as pine stands.
Liberal
Nick Whalen Liberal St. John's East, NL
Sure, but maybe they're not supposed to come back as pine stands. That's the point I'm trying to make. What types of stands do they have in northern California? The northern California climate of 100 years ago was more like the climate of southern British Columbia now, so what do their forests look like? Isn't that what we should be managing towards?
I don't expect pine stands to come back here, because the mountain pine beetle would just eat them all.
Spatial Modelling Coordinator, fRI Research, Healthy Landscapes Program, As an Individual
It won't necessarily do that if we take action. Certainly the types of stands that we have, that they have in the U.S., in California and in Colorado, where there's more ponderosa pine, are very different types of forest stands.
All those stands are still fire-driven ecosystems. Fire still plays a huge role on the landscape. Even if you said, “Let's let the beetles have their way with the trees”, and they're going to march their way through, you still have this issue that the forests aren't in a state where they're going to be long-term resilient, not just to insect disturbance but also to fire and the change in the fire regimes that is coming and is already under way.
We need to do something, because we can't afford to just—
Liberal
Nick Whalen Liberal St. John's East, NL
I'm not sure what we can do. In looking at this map, there are tens of thousands of square kilometres that can't be treated.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal James Maloney
Sorry, we're going to have to stop there.
Mr. Schmale, have you decided yet whether—
Conservative
Liberal
The Chair Liberal James Maloney
Okay. You have five minutes. You can split the time up any way you see fit. It starts now.
Conservative
Ted Falk Conservative Provencher, MB
Okay, thank you, Mr. Chair.
Mr. Chubaty, thank you for your testimony here. I've appreciated it and enjoyed listening to you.
I have a question about temperature. You've indicated that we need -35°C temperatures to kill the bug. Is that sustained temperature or to just hit that point?
Spatial Modelling Coordinator, fRI Research, Healthy Landscapes Program, As an Individual
It would be sustained temperature. We need fairly long stretches of -35°C or -40°C.
Conservative
Spatial Modelling Coordinator, fRI Research, Healthy Landscapes Program, As an Individual
It would be several days to weeks.
Conservative
Ted Falk Conservative Provencher, MB
What are the chances we're going to get that in those yellow areas identified on your map?
Spatial Modelling Coordinator, fRI Research, Healthy Landscapes Program, As an Individual
On the current climate suitability forecast for mountain pine beetle, there are a number of different models that have been developed to look at exactly this question. All of them basically suggest that in all of these areas, as we move into eastern Alberta and into Saskatchewan, into that boreal range, there's certainly going to be favourable climate for the beetles. It's definitely looking less likely that we're going to be getting those sustained cold temperatures.
Conservative
Ted Falk Conservative Provencher, MB
One other option that we've heard is controlled burns. What is it that kills the bugs? Is it the smoke or the fire?
Spatial Modelling Coordinator, fRI Research, Healthy Landscapes Program, As an Individual
It would be the fire. I would just clarify, though, that typically prescribed burns, to use that terminology, is a method of indirect control that is really geared at making the landscape less susceptible to the beetles. It's a more proactive approach as opposed to the reactive approach of just going in, cutting those trees and then burning them.
Conservative
Ted Falk Conservative Provencher, MB
We've heard from previous presenters here that we don't want to eradicate the beetle, we just want to control it. Would you agree with that statement?
Spatial Modelling Coordinator, fRI Research, Healthy Landscapes Program, As an Individual
I would agree with that, yes.
Conservative
Spatial Modelling Coordinator, fRI Research, Healthy Landscapes Program, As an Individual
The best way, as I've outlined here, is to maintain this zoned approach where we really focus on suppression along the leading edge where the densities are low and where we know we're having a measurable impact. Then, in the areas that are already heavily inundated with beetles, we shift to a mitigation and adaptation strategy. We salvage wood where we can, but we do need to learn to live with the beetle.
