Evidence of meeting #68 for Natural Resources in the 42nd Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was electricity.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Chief Economist, National Energy Board
As I'm recalling, they said there wasn't enough benefit for Canadians. There was an effect on the air quality in the Abbotsford region and, taking everything into account, there wasn't enough for Canadians.
NDP
Richard Cannings NDP South Okanagan—West Kootenay, BC
I'm trying to remember. I think that was a natural gas power plant.
Chief Economist, National Energy Board
There was a natural gas power plant on the U.S. side of the border. The power was going to come back into Canada and then go back down into the U.S. again.
NDP
Richard Cannings NDP South Okanagan—West Kootenay, BC
Yes.
One of the questions I had was around energy security for Canada. Is that one of the things you might take into account when we're exporting energy to the United States?
Chief Economist, National Energy Board
When we're exporting energy.... Again, parties can come and bring whatever case they want. I don't recall that's been brought up very frequently.
Vice-President, Integrated Energy Information and Analysis, National Energy Board
We do consider something that we refer to as “fair market access”.
When a party is exporting to the United States, other parties—if they haven't had a fair market access to that power—can come to the board and provide comments or potentially appear at a hearing. That can be a factor that the board can look into.
Chief Economist, National Energy Board
That is looked into in every proceeding.
NDP
Richard Cannings NDP South Okanagan—West Kootenay, BC
Okay.
I want to thank you for giving us a sneak preview of your report. I always like these graphs.
I'm not sure if this has anything to do with our study, but I'm curious. I'm looking at the end-use demand histograms at the back, and what strikes me is that nothing changes. I mean, I can imagine that something is changing in behind. I'm sure in the electricity chunk of that, there is change, with coal being phased out and natural gas being wrapped up.
I'm wondering. First of all you said that the reference case was based on regulations and policies at the time it was done. When was this done?
Chief Economist, National Energy Board
It would have been done four or five months ago.
The reference case has something that looks very close to the pan-Canadian framework, but of course there are options in that for provinces, so we simplified some of that so everybody has the same carbon or has at least the $10, $20, $30, $40, $50 carbon prices.
NDP
Richard Cannings NDP South Okanagan—West Kootenay, BC
At every meeting I've gone to about world energy, etc., in the last couple of years, everybody was talking about how we need to ramp up the electrification of our energy mix, and I just don't see that happening here.
I'm wondering if you're predicting the failure of government policy or is Canada just going to get left behind the rest of the world because these are not the graphs I've seen at these other meetings.
Chief Economist, National Energy Board
The graphs don't show huge changes.
Chief Economist, National Energy Board
It's hard to see it on the graphs, but in the high technology case, for example, wind increases about three times what it currently is. Solar's about 12 times higher. So in power generation you get some fairly substantive shifts.
NDP
Richard Cannings NDP South Okanagan—West Kootenay, BC
I'm talking more about the oil and gas products. That's vehicles. That's what we're driving our cars with, yet you're not showing any change. Now we're hearing many car companies want to phase out gas-powered vehicles by 2030 or at least the production of those vehicles. I don't see any reflection of that.
Chief Economist, National Energy Board
It's hard to see those kinds of differences. We see oil going from I think it's 41% down to 38% because you might get big changes on the margins, but to change the whole system takes a long time for these kinds of graphs to show.
In this high technology case, the last bar there, one scenario was assumed where we have carbon prices going up to $140 nominally by 2040, and we have much more electrification of cars. We've relaxed on the integration, and some of the other things Jim talked about in this.
Again, that's one scenario. It takes fossil fuel use down 13% less in 2040 than it was in the base case, but these things happen so gradually it's hard to see big changes when you look at a total like that.
NDP
Richard Cannings NDP South Okanagan—West Kootenay, BC
I'll just throw this out. We're going to be hearing about how the NEB's role might be changed in the future. Is this a place where you could reflect on how you see that happening, or what powers you would like to have that you don't have now? Would you want those powers in provincial power lines? Tell me in one minute.
Vice-President, Integrated Energy Information and Analysis, National Energy Board
Obviously, the process of NEB modernization and environmental assessment review has been going on for quite some time, and the board has worked hard to support that in any way we can.
We're looking forward to what the government's going to announce, apparently this fall, to modernize, and we look forward to the transition. There's really nothing we could say that we would want. We're a creature of legislation and will do with what we get.
NDP
Richard Cannings NDP South Okanagan—West Kootenay, BC
It wasn't very fair. I was scrambling for a question, but I'm curious.
Liberal
Marc Serré Liberal Nickel Belt, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you for presenting to us today.
You indicated the NEB regulates the construction and operation of international power lines by awarding permits for the export of electricity. Do international power lines face the same environmental assessment review as other facilities the board regulates?
Vice-President, Integrated Energy Information and Analysis, National Energy Board
Yes, they do. There's a trigger in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act's designated project regulations that says the power line has to be 345 kilovolts and 75 kilometres of new right of way before it becomes a CEAA-designated project. But even in projects that don't meet the CEAA designation, we would apply the same scrutiny to the environmental effects as we would to any other.
Liberal
Marc Serré Liberal Nickel Belt, ON
I want to understand a bit more. You indicated the export north to south, but said you do not issue permits or licences for any interties between provincial governments.
Vice-President, Integrated Energy Information and Analysis, National Energy Board
That's correct.
