First and foremost, let me say that governments of all stripes that have dealt with this issue have taken it very seriously and done a very good job to represent Canada's interest in softwood lumber. It is not a partisan issue. It is an issue that is incredibly important to whoever is in government, because of the size and importance of the industry. The current government here in Canada has done what they can to try to negotiate a deal; however, if you don't have a willing partner on the other side of the border to negotiate a deal with, you can't get a deal. That remains our case today. The U.S. coalition is not interested in a deal, and until they are it is unlikely we will be able to fashion one. That's just the nature of how the law works down there.
The impact on my membership right now has been fairly benign to this point in time. The price of lumber has risen in the United States, and essentially what's happening today is that U.S. consumers are paying the brunt of protectionist actions by a handful of forest companies.
However, we've been down this road before. The last time we were in this was from 2001 to 2006. What we know is that markets will adjust over time, so it's our expectation that as we fight the legal case, the price of lumber will start to drop, and then it will start to bite and we'll start to see reduced shifts in mills and logging operations, and those kinds of things.
It is certainly very difficult for a CEO to be able to go to a board and ask for investment money when you have a 21% duty on your products. I mentioned earlier that on the coast here 80% of what we send to the United States is cedar. It's our biggest market for cedar. It's probably the only market that's willing to pay for the price of cedar. The average value of cedar going into the United States is $1,200 a thousand board feet. When you put a 21% duty on top of that, you're looking at paying over $400 in duties. The market will not sustain that kind of pricing for a long period of time.
We're already starting to see prices come off. As prices come off, we will see an impact on employment and economic activity, and certainly on the investment front.