Thank you very much. It's a great privilege to be here today.
Low-carbon fuels have been a major focus of my academic career for more than 20 years. Over the past two years, I've been helping to launch the Transition Accelerator, a pan-Canadian non-profit that is focused on achieving net-zero emission energy systems in a way that creates jobs and stimulates the economy.
There is a rapidly growing global consensus that to achieve net-zero emissions, virtually all carbon-based energy carriers, such as gasoline, diesel and natural gas, must be replaced with zero-emission energy carriers, such as electricity and hydrogen. Of course, these energy carriers must be made with little or no greenhouse gas emissions.
This might sound like bad news for Canada, but it is not. Canada is internationally renowned as one of the world's lowest-cost producers of low- or zero-carbon electricity and hydrogen.
Electricity is an excellent energy carrier for personally owned vehicles, for light-duty transportation, and space heating in more moderate climates.
However, I want to focus today on hydrogen as the net-zero fuel of choice for heavy-duty and long-distance transport, essentially those markets that are now served by diesel; space heating, especially in cold climates and for large buildings; and heavy industry, such as steel making.
By 2050, hydrogen could deliver 30% of the secondary energy demand in Canada, and feed a major energy export industry, while adding about $100 billion a year to the Canadian economy, and delivering somewhere between 25% to 50% reductions in national greenhouse gas emissions.
When hydrogen is made from the electrolysis of water with renewables or nuclear energy, it is often called green hydrogen. On the other hand, blue hydrogen is made from fossil fuels, such as natural gas, when the byproduct CO2 is captured and sequestered in geological reservoirs. Both green and blue hydrogen are low carbon, and both will reduce life-cycle emissions by 90% or more when displacing diesel use in heavy transport.
Some provinces are better positioned to make green hydrogen, while others are better positioned to make blue hydrogen. Either way, hydrogen could provide a shared pan-Canadian vision for a clean energy future. This is a rare opportunity for this country.
The challenge with hydrogen is that it is a gas, so it is more expensive to transport and store than liquid fuels, such as diesel or gasoline. Canada can actually make low-carbon hydrogen at about half the wholesale cost of diesel fuel. However, getting the hydrogen to market is only cost-effective if it is done at large scale, serving dozens to hundreds and thousands of users.
How do we get there from here? There are four points I want to make.
Number one is to focus on the entire value chain, linking both policies and public funding to build new energy systems in a coordinated way.
Number two is to understand the level of ambition that is required. Every year there are over 5,000 buses and 34,000 heavy-duty trucks sold in Canada. To put Canada on a transition path to net zero, one-third of these, or 13,000 vehicles per year, would need to be hydrogen fuelled by 2030. This is a challenge, since large vehicles of this type will not arrive in Canada until 2022.
Number three is that early investments are needed in pilots and demonstration projects for vehicles, fuelling stations and low-carbon hydrogen production. These are important to stimulate interest and build confidence in a new hydrogen value chain.
Number four is to concentrate investments on hydrogen hubs. Over the next five to seven years, substantial public investments must be focused on a limited number of regions that can bring together low-cost hydrogen supply, efficient transport and substantial demand.
In conclusion, hydrogen is an essential energy carrier in a net-zero energy future. Canada is well positioned to take a leadership role, but we must act now.
Thank you.