Thank you very much.
I'm going to be intervening in French, but I can take questions in English during the discussion. It's either way.
I'm going to talk a bit about my professional activities. I'm speaking to you today as an environmental science economist and an academic expert in this field.
For several years, my work has focused on oil sands, and more recently on liquefied natural gas, LNG. I've also worked a lot with the Front commun pour la transition énergétique, the FCTE, in its efforts to create a roadmap for Quebec's transition to carbon neutrality. This association brought all the major union organizations together to work on a carbon neutrality project, including the Confédération des syndicats nationaux, the CSN, the Fédération des travailleurs et travailleuses du Québec, the FTQ, and the Centrale des syndicats démocratiques, the CSD, in addition to environmental movements, community groups and citizens groups.
I worked with the FCTE for two years on drafting a Quebec transition plan that factors in the various transition-related problems, as understood by the International Labour Office, the ILO. So I'm very familiar with what this committee is discussing at the moment.
I'd like to briefly address two points: the definition of a just transition and the current economic context for the transition. I'll begin with the first. Instead of going into the details, I'd like to simply draw your attention to the report published a few weeks ago by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. The report addresses climate change mitigation, and from among the various possible transition scenarios, it identifies one based on reduced energy demand. This strikes me as the only scenario that is compatible with a sound understanding of the just transition concept, and that takes all of the criteria in the definition of climate justice into account.
I would suggest that you read chapter 5 of the IPCC report, which is about reducing energy demand. The authors offer solutions and a vision of the transition that strike me as compatible with the concept.
I would now like to say a few words about the current economic context for the transition. I believe that the key issue for a just energy transition is the hydrocarbons sector—oil and gas.
Should the transition merely offset the expansion of oil sands and its emissions in some way, or should there rather be a just transition plan that requires the transformation of the Canadian economy to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbon extraction, combined with worker and community interventions for those who are economically dependent on this sector, to help them reduce their dependence on it?
I'd like to briefly present a few figures. Since 2005, production in the oil sands sector, production has grown by a factor of 2.5 to 3.4, depending on the criteria used. Emissions matched this level of increase, and there has not been any reduction in emissions for this sector. The only emissions reductions were on the product development side. Investment in the oil sands sector has been dropping since 2015. The number of jobs has been declining since 2014, basically because of huge productivity gains. It is no longer being described as a dynamic sector that creates jobs. It is now a sector where employment has been dropping. The sector's tax contributions have also been declining. Currently, the revenue increases produced by the rising price per barrel have been translating in the industry into higher dividends rather than increased wages.
It is therefore important to take this sector in hand to plan its transition. My fear is that efforts made to develop a transition plan that does not seriously examine the sector would be undermined by the need to overcompensate for the increased greenhouse gases in the oil sands sector.
I have a final factor to add with respect to economic conditions. As we envisage the transition today, in 2022, we need to give due regard to the fact that our economy does not need job creation. In our economy, there is a shortage of labour from coast to coast. We are fighting over quality workers. In particular, we're fighting over workers from the construction sector and the manufacturing sector. Workers in the gas, oil sands and traditional oil extraction sectors will be and are now needed in other sectors of the Canadian economy. The challenge is not to create jobs. The challenge is to help those communities that depend too heavily on the oil sector. Qualified workers need to be retrained to work in other sectors where they are urgently needed.
I would be happy to answer any questions you may have about any of the aspects I've just raised.
Thank you.