Thank you, Chair.
Thank you, members.
Clean Energy Canada is a think tank based out of Simon Fraser University's Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue that has been focused on the clean energy transition for the past 10 years.
I would thank my colleague for the land acknowledgement and would echo it, but I'd like to start my remarks by really positioning us in how fast this transition is moving.
In the year since this committee moved to make this a study, the Inflation Reduction Act south of the border has led to 272 new projects, 170,000 new jobs and $213 billion in new investments. That's in its first year. This week, the International Energy Agency revised their forecast and now sees fossil fuel demand peaking before 2030. A recent study now projects that two-thirds of global car sales could be electric by the same date.
The energy transition is not coming; it is here. With 90% of global GDP now covered by net-zero commitments, we are in the middle of the biggest economic transformation since the Industrial Revolution.
Here is Canada's opportunity, because according to modelling that we completed last spring, Canada, with the right policies, has the ability to create five times more jobs in clean energy by 2050 than there are today, outpacing any decline in fossil fuels. There are huge opportunities for Canada's natural resource economy, such as using our clean water supply and renewable energy potential to produce clean hydrogen or using Quebec's iron ore, which is among the highest-grade ores in the world, to make the next generation of clean steel.
These changes don't have to come at the expense of Canadian households. Our reports and those of colleagues show that Canadians can actually save money on their energy bills in the energy transition.
What does Canada need to do to seize this opportunity?
This spring, TD Economics estimated that Canada had actually spent more as a percentage of GDP than the U.S. Canada has been doing some leaning in, but there's definitely more to do.
First, I would say that what Canada needs to do is focus on the opportunities of tomorrow, not yesterday. Green hydrogen—i.e., hydrogen made with renewable energy—may be more expensive to produce today, but it's forecasted to be less expensive by the early 2030s. I would echo the comments of my colleagues at the chemistry association. We've written reports highlighting the real opportunity for Canada to become an exporter of the clean chemicals that will go into the battery supply chain and other products that will be needed in a net-zero future.
Second, we need to double down on our competitive advantages. Today, Canada's grid is 84% clean, and the U.S. is at 40%. As manufacturers clean their supply chains, this is going to be a huge advantage, but other countries won't let us keep that edge forever. The U.S. has its eye on a clean grid by 2035.
At the federal level, fiscal incentives such as the clean electricity tax credit and regulatory reforms like the clean electricity regulations will help support provinces to address the costs of build-out and ensure investor stability.
My third point is this: Move quickly. I think that point has already been covered. Time is of the essence.
Fourth, be smart and strategic. Canada cannot match the U.S.'s market size and fiscal firepower dollar for dollar, so what we need to do is think strategically and smartly about this. I anticipate that my colleague will speak more to this, but my first suggestion would be to use good industrial policy—namely, being strategic, nimble and iterative with industry, labour, indigenous partners and others by setting clear objectives that can help orient private investment, and by choosing lanes, giving clarity on what Canada will and will not compete for. Canada, by doing these things, can help to be prepared for emerging opportunities.
Also, by strategically choosing investments, Canada can provide the best return on taxpayer dollars. In our work to help Canada meet the $50-billion opportunity of the EV battery supply chain, we estimated the jobs multiplier associated with battery gigafactories that we've seen announced in St. Thomas and Windsor, and reportedly coming to Quebec, to be between six and eight by 2030. That's a high-value investment in terms of jobs and GDP, which is why jurisdictions are competing to secure them.
Going forward, Canada can get even more advantage by focusing on the upstream side. How do you get Canadian minerals into Canadian batteries to leverage our competitive advantage and ensure opportunities will be available in even more parts of the country?
Finally, the American approach of using government buying power to create a market for low-carbon goods has been proven to support U.S. businesses and workers. Because Canadian products are already cleaner than the global average, “buying clean” can mean using the dollars the government was already planning to spend to support Canadian industry to meet those growing markets for clean materials. Canada needs to finalize its own “buy clean” strategy.
In conclusion, this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build a resilient, growing and inclusive economy.
I look forward to any questions. Thank you.