Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for the invitation to have a dialogue between citizens and elected officials on a critical issue for the future.
I am going to start with two highlights.
First, if the largest sector in terms of greenhouse gas, or GHG, emissions does not do its part, it will be impossible to reach the carbon neutrality target.
Second, renewable energy pathways, energy efficiency in all sectors and energy sobriety are the way forward for a sustainable future.
I will now paint you a picture of the global situation. Since 1990, climate change has accelerated, GHG emissions have not stopped growing and the concentration of atmospheric CO2 has risen from 350 ppm in 1990 to 420 ppm today. This increase is largely due to the use of fossil fuels.
Planet Earth has biophysical limits that are essential to know and respect. A global and long-term vision is necessary. Many people use the International Energy Agency, or IEA, report from last year as a reference to argue that certain scenarios would allow for the production of even more hydrocarbons, but it should be noted that the IEA is not a climate specialist, and on the other hand, choosing a scenario that suits short-term economic interests is like looking at the sky with a microscope.
A serious analysis must be based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, 2019 interim report and on the first part of the IPCC's sixth report published last August. Here I remind you of three key findings: Human influence is the primary cause of climate warming; the current trajectory of emissions is leading us towards a probable temperature increase of about 2.6 degrees Celsius; and reducing GHG emissions is a critical imperative.
With respect to the situation in Canada, GHG emissions in 2019 were 730 megatons of CO2 equivalent, an increase of over 21% since 1990. In 2019, the oil and gas sector emitted 191 megatons, or 26% of total emissions. It is the largest emissions sector in the country. The increase in GHG emissions from this sector between 1990 and 2019 was around 87%. According to the report entitled “Canada's 2021 Nationally Determined Contribution Under the Paris Agreement”, the country must reduce its emissions by 40% to 45% below the 2005 level by 2030.
In the Canada Energy Regulators report published last year, it says on page 12 that crude oil production will peak “at 5.8 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2032... After 2032, production declines steadily, reaching 4.8 MMb/d in 2050.” It is a similar path for natural gas production. However, the report states on page 4 that “while this implies a significant reduction in GHG emissions by 2050, achieving net-zero will likely require more change than is included in this scenario.”
Canada's oil and gas production exports penalize all of humanity. Responsibility is not a matter of geography, but of behaviour. It is therefore essential to quickly cap hydrocarbon production and to impose a planned decrease so that all actors can agree on a scenario that is consistent with climate realities. In this way, indigenous communities, workers, companies and the various levels of government will be able to adjust to an inevitable evolution. There are only 28 years left before 2050.
An important criterion to consider for any energy project development is the evaluation of the energy return on investment (EROI). Producing hydrogen from natural gas or oil sands and sequestering CO2 underground is an energy aberration. It is also an economic one. The primary goal is to continue to extract hydrocarbons. Burying CO2 is a false solution similar to burying nuclear waste. It sees the subsoil as a garbage can that future generations will have to deal with.
Thank you for your attention.