Thank you, Mr. Chair and the committee, for the invitation to speak here today.
As an expert in nuclear energy, I have been involved in various aspects of the technology for 30 years. This includes experiences with Japan and France's nuclear fleets, with Ontario Hydro and its successor companies, and now in academia.
I had roles advising the Ontario government on nuclear emergency planning and preforming R and D for the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission. I am currently a professor in the faculty of engineering at McMaster, and I work at the McMaster nuclear reactor, the MNR. The MNR is Canada's largest research reactor. It produces many critical nuclear isotopes, some used domestically and some exported. It is a singular, unique infrastructure supporting Canada's nuclear sector.
In the nuclear field, there are immense export possibilities for direct sales and technical services, some of which are already under way today. Our recent successes in refurbishment in Ontario and new builds at Darlington have put Canada centre stage in global nuclear discussions.
While our exports of Canadian CANDU technology were decades ago, Canada continues to see returns from those investments. Of particular note are the international refurbishment projects being led by Canadian companies like Candu Energy, where the entire Canadian-centred supply chain is performing critical work for overseas markets. The net services and component contracts to support CANDU exports over the years have been a huge success story that few people have recognized. The new SMR project at Darlington would be another defining moment for the Canadian nuclear story, as many countries globally are considering that design.
A key element of our success that's not often recognized has been the top-tier talent trained through Canada's colleges and universities. I've spent my career looking at things of deep complexity, from the innermost parts of the reactor to large-scale accidents like Fukushima. It has become clear to me that workforce availability, knowledge and expertise are the foundation of success.
I'd like to start with this question: What is the issue? In a recent workforce planning study performed at McMaster, we predicted that there will be significant workforce stresses in the coming decade for the nuclear energy and isotope sectors. The predictions show that direct and supply chain employment demands may triple over the coming decade.
This is founded on four key points. First, the Independent Electricity System Operator in Ontario calls for 17 new gigawatts of capacity domestically in Ontario alone. Given the capacity factor of renewables and difficulties with seasonal storage, it is likely that a bulk of this baseload supply will be met by nuclear. The 17 gigawatts would be approximately 60 BWRX units, like the 60 reactors currently under construction in Darlington. It's likely that some of these reactors will be of the large variety. In any event, Canada may have multiple nuclear units under construction simultaneously, while also looking at supporting the export market, which will put significant strains on the labour market.
The second point is that sector-to-sector worker transitions and immigration will be critical to meeting these workforce requirements. Provincial and federal government co-operation on skills development and retraining will be needed.
Third, as successful companies throughout the nuclear landscape—from mining at Cameco all the way to used nuclear fuel by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization—capitalize on global growth and domestic expansion, recruitment will need to ramp up significantly.
Last, and what is not often recognized, is that observing large-scale infrastructure projects like those in the U.K. shows that attrition rates can reach 20% in these large megaprojects.
To counter this, there have been excellent programs through tri-council research funding to support faculty and support universities, including over 100 highly qualified personnel passing through my lab alone. In addition, Natural Resources Canada, through initiatives like its enabling SMRs program, has increased the number of companies active in Canada and also supported R and D at universities.
As Canada embarks on its simultaneous megaprojects in the defence sector, oil and gas, energy, AI and minerals, a national workforce issue is emerging where sectors will compete over a limited talent pool.
How can we do more? Recent announcements by the federal government on the Canada Impact+ research chairs is a promising start. This will bring hundreds of world-leading talents to universities and will fund a large number of new students in these areas. Additional short-term actions—for example, enhancing support programs like the Canada research chair program or transitioning the enabling NRCan programs to large reactor builds—would certainly help.
Finally, working with provincial leaders to establish sustained, targeted and direct funding to grow training programs and facilities like McMaster's reactor is desperately needed. An urgent response is needed now to meet future demand.
I'd be happy to take questions related to the workforce study, nuclear expansion or the nuclear sector in general.
Thank you to the members of the committee for your time.