Thank you for the question, Mr. Martel. This is an issue we have spent a great deal of time thinking about and speculating on to try to better understand the consequences of potential tariffs on our electricity sales, as well as on our imports—in the opposite direction, if we import electricity at certain times, of course.
What's important to clarify right now is that, fortunately, there are no tariffs on electricity at the moment. Electricity has never been subject to tariffs, and there are good reasons for that.
First, electricity is not a tangible good. It doesn't cross a border crossing like a good that could simply be intercepted and on which tariffs could be imposed. So, if tariffs were to be imposed, the Americans would have to set up an entire tracking infrastructure, which would be extremely complex. It would certainly take more than a year to set up, measure and track that.
Second, the absence of tariffs obviously allows for this flexibility between markets. So energy can flow, often from north to south, but also from south to north, when market opportunities are attractive. We see attractive market opportunities particularly in the context of the rise of intermittent energy sources in the northeast, here. Wind energy and solar energy create extremely low prices at certain times. Obviously, when they're not available, prices are extremely high. That creates import opportunities, but conversely, it also creates export opportunities at high prices. The discrepancy between the two is very attractive and a win-win for everyone. When we export, we inevitably add supply to the market, which reduces prices for Americans.
If all of that were subject to tariffs, according to our calculations and projections, there would be an increase in wholesale prices in the New England and New York markets of up to roughly 30% during peak periods, since we are a major player in those markets. In terms of costs, the impact would be significant during those hours when energy demand is very high.
The other barrier worth mentioning concerns reliability. When you start imposing tariffs, 25% barriers or other measures of this kind, it means that energy can flow less freely. In such a scenario, we can imagine emergency situations, such as ice storms, where neighbouring communities need to be supplied with energy. There would be this administrative burden, these additional barriers, and these extra costs that would then be passed on to consumers. This could create significant reliability issues in some emergency situations.