Thank you. Good morning.
Good morning, everyone.
Thank you for inviting the Canada Energy Regulator to appear before you today.
My name is Darren Christie, chief economist at the CER. I am joined today by Dr. Ganesh Doluweera, our technical leader for energy outlooks.
I am appearing before you today from Calgary, Alberta, located within Treaty 7 Territory, the traditional territories of the Blackfoot Confederacy, which includes the Siksika, Piikani and Kainai first nations. Treaty 7 is also home to the Tsuut'ina first nation, and the Stoney Nakoda, including the Chiniki, Bearspaw and Goodstoney first nations.
I would also like to recognize the Métis that have settled in southern Alberta and call this place home.
Recognizing that the CER has broadly described its mandate in other recent appearances before this committee, I will briefly elaborate on the CER's electricity mandate today, given its prominence in your study.
The CER's electricity mandate, as set out in the CER Act, includes regulating the construction and operation of international power lines and designated interprovincial power lines, offshore renewable energy projects and offshore power lines, and electricity exports. The mandate also includes providing supply and markets information.
Provinces regulate development, conservation and management of sites within a province for the generation and production of electrical energy, as expressly stated in the Constitution. As a result, the CER's role in electricity is relatively limited. The electricity mandate that we do have comprises two broad components: the adjudication function and the energy information function. I will address each in turn.
There are two separate aspects to the CER's electricity adjudication function: construction and operation of international and interprovincial power lines; and electricity exports.
Before constructing an international power line, applicants must apply for either a permit or a certificate. Currently, there are approximately 125 CER-issued permits and certificates, and the CER regulates approximately 1,500 km of international power lines.
The second aspect of our adjudication process concerns electricity exports. The commission issues permits or licenses to companies to export electricity internationally. In assessing an export application, the CER can only consider the effect of the exports on neighbouring provinces and fair market access for Canadians.
The CER does not regulate electricity imports or interprovincial electricity trade.
Beyond adjudication, the CER is also responsible for advising and reporting on energy matters. As part of this, in March, the CER released the latest edition of its flagship energy future series, “Canada's Energy Future 2026: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050”, which explores four possible scenarios for Canadian energy over the long term. These include a baseline current measures scenario, reflecting policies in place as of November 2025, as well as higher and lower scenarios that produce a range around the current measures scenario and a net-zero emissions scenario.
I'd like to highlight a few key findings from EF 2026 that we believe are relevant to your current study.
First, electricity generation grows in every scenario through 2050, driven by electrification of existing energy end uses, economic and population growth, and new demands in areas such as hydrogen production and data centres. Depending on the scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase between 30% and 120% from 2023 levels, resulting in installed generation capacity's rising substantially from roughly 160 gigawatts in 2023 to between 270 and 400 gigawatts by 2050.
Wind power accounts for the largest share of new capacity, supported by growth in hydro, solar, nuclear batteries and natural gas with carbon capture. Additionally, interprovincial transmission interties play a growing role in balancing supply and demand variations across provincial systems, with interprovincial transmission capacity growing roughly 70% by 2050 in all scenarios.
“Canada's Energy Future 2026” also provides some analysis of energy self-sufficiency and security. In particular, it highlights that, in most scenarios, central Canada's substantial dependence on natural gas and crude oil produced in, or transiting through, the U.S. would continue based on current pipeline configuration. Only in the Canada net-zero scenario does central Canada use significantly less natural gas and refined petroleum products by 2050, which could reduce the region's reliance on energy coming from or through the U.S.
In closing, the CER remains ready to assess all applications we receive and will continue to provide timely, evidence-based energy information to inform the energy conversation in Canada.
Thank you for the opportunity to discuss these issues with you today.
We look forward to answering your questions.