Thank you, François.
First, we must remember that barely 10 years after the start of a 1965 experimental project led by two McGill University researchers at an elementary school in Saint-Lambert on the South Shore of Montreal—a project that gave rise to immersion programs across Canada and around the world—there were roughly 250 schools outside Quebec offering a French immersion program.
Immersion programs were so popular that, in just three years, between the 1981-1982 and 1984-1985 school years, the number of schools offering immersion programs went from 570 to 1,140. In the 2001-2002 school year, the last year for which this information is available, nearly 2,000 public schools outside Quebec offered a French immersion program.
Of course, growth in the number of schools outside Quebec offering French immersion programs is reflected in enrolment growth. Over the last 30 years, the number of public school students enrolled in a French immersion program has gone from 39,000 to 341,705.
However, this growth has not been constant: steady enrolment growth between 1981 and 1992 was followed by a period of relative stagnation, if not decline, between 1992 and 2003, and then another period of enrolment growth between the 2004-2005 and 2010-2011 school years. Note that the number of students in immersion programs increased by 52,735, or 18%, between the 2004-2005 and 2010-2011 school years, compared with an increase of barely 6% in the preceding decade.
The resurgence in enrolment in immersion programs since 2004 varies widely from one province or territory to another. For example, in Ontario, where close to 190,000 students are enrolled in an immersion program, 54.4% of all enrolments outside Quebec, the number of students increased 24%. ln comparison, British Columbia and Alberta saw increases of 26% and 16%, respectively, in the number of immersion students.
Despite its small population, the province of Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest growth in immersion program enrolment since 2004, at more than 34%, for a total of 8,700 students in 2010-2011.
Now let me put immersion program enrollment increases into context. I would like to point out to members of the committee that over the last 20 years, growth in the number and proportion of students enrolled in French immersion programs in provinces and territories outside Quebec has taken place as the number of youth enrolled in a regular French as a second language program has significantly decreased.
Since the 1991-92 school year, the number of youth enrolled in an immersion program has gone from more than 267,000 to nearly 342,000, a 27.7% increase. In contrast, the number of youth enrolled in a regular French as a second language program fell from 1.8 million to 1.36 million, a 24% decrease. In short, despite the rise in immersion program enrolment, the proportion of youth outside Quebec who have received French as a second language instruction in the last 20 years has fallen from 53.3% to 43.9%.
This reality, as shown by the statistics for programs and school enrolment collected from the education ministries and departments of each province and territory, is reflected in the census data on knowledge of official languages, in particular since the 1996 census.
Since non-francophones in a number of regions outside Quebec normally learn French in school, the rate of English-French bilingualism peaks between the ages of 15 and 19, when youth are finishing high school. Many teenagers in this age group were in fact enrolled in a French as a second language or immersion program. However, since the 1996 census, bilingualism has declined among youth in this age group whose first official language spoken is English. The proportion of these young people who could conduct a conversation in both official languages was 15.2% in 1996. It decreased steadily to 11.2% in 2011, down four percentage points.
The different ways in which non-francophones outside Quebec learn French at school have very diverse effects on one of the key issues in the evolution of English-French bilingualism in Canada, namely second-language retention over time.
Census data clearly show that the rate of bilingualism in 15 to 19-year-old non-francophones outside Quebec declines as they leave school and grow older. For example, the cohort of 15 to 19-year-old anglophones outside Quebec in 1996 had a bilingualism rate of 15.2%. Fifteen years later, in 2011, when they were 25 to 34, their rate had decreased by nearly half.
Seen from a different angle, by tracking various cohorts of youth aged 5 to 9 years old across censuses, we note the same sequence of events, no matter the cohort. For example, youth aged 5 to 9 years old in 1981 had a bilingualism rate of 3.4%. Ten years later, at the age of 15 to 19, that rate reached nearly 14%. At the age of 25 to 29, that rate had declined to less than 10% to finally stand at 7% 10 years later in 2011.
Note that the level of bilingualism and the retention of French as a second language over time vary considerably depending on whether one was enrolled in an immersion or intensive program or in a regular French as a second language program.
A study conducted by Statistics Canada using data from the “Youth in Transition Survey” revealed a considerable gap between the bilingualism rate of 21-year-olds who were enrolled in a French immersion program and the rate of those who had not been enrolled in an immersion program. The 2006 “Youth in Transition Survey” collected information on the cohort of youth who had participated in the 2000 program for international student assessment when they were 15. The 2006 data therefore helped us to link the youth's self-assessment of their ability to converse in English and French at age 21 with past enrolment in some form of French or English second-language immersion, extended or intensive French.
This study shows that more than 80% of non-francophone youth outside Quebec have never been enrolled in a French immersion or extended program. Only 6% of them have reported being able to conduct a conversation in French at age 21. In contrast, those who had been enrolled in a French immersion or extended program had a rate of English-French bilingualism of 57%.
However, the much higher rate of bilingualism—and therefore the much higher retention rate—of youth who had been enrolled in an immersion program varies depending on the number of years spent in the program and when the youth were first enrolled in the program. Youth who had been enrolled in an immersion program for at least six school years had a bilingualism rate of 75% at age 21. As well, youth who had been enrolled in an immersion program before grade 4 had a rate of bilingualism of 64% at age 21, compared with a rate of 45% for youth who had been first enrolled in grade 4 or later.
Lastly, note that, for youth who were enrolled in immersion at the elementary level only, the rate of bilingualism at age 21 was approximately 40%, compared with 66% for those who continued in the program to the secondary level. The statistics presented here lead to the following findings.
First, the bilingualism rate in 15- to 19-year-old non-francophones outside Quebec has been dropping for the last 15 years. This situation is the result of a number of factors, including a significant decrease in the number and proportion of youth exposed to the instruction of French. In addition, second language skills are gradually lost, primarily because few opportunities exist to use the second language once high school is finished.
Second, there seems to be clear interest in enrolling in French immersion programs, as shown by the 28% increase in French immersion enrolment over the last 20 years. As well, given the high bilingualism and second-language retention rates in young adults who have been enrolled in immersion programs in elementary and high school, it seems obvious that the rate of bilingualism in non-francophones outside Quebec would be even lower, were it not for the success of immersion programs across the country.
In closing, I would like to say that the information we received from our provincial and territorial partners has been critical in helping us to monitor changes in enrolment in French as a second language programs in Canada. Combining the various sources of statistical data has been most useful to inform the public debate on issues surrounding official language learning in Canada.
Thank you.