The court's rulings were around whether there was a loss. To the best of my knowledge, the judgment on the likelihood of recovery is based on analysis that they've declared bankruptcy and they are no longer solvent. That doesn't mean there aren't efforts to recover—those go on—but this is the best estimate of the amount we expect to be recovered.
Evidence of meeting #49 for Public Accounts in the 40th Parliament, 3rd session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was question.
A recording is available from Parliament.