Transport Committee on June 4th, 2009

[Paul Côté]

--and subway systems, exactly. Thank you very much. In the case of subway systems, for instance, you have GO, Agence métropolitaine de transport in Montreal, and systems like that. That is the critical success factor for this project, in our opinion.

[Olivia Chow, NDP, Trinity—Spadina, ON]

I absolutely agree. I can't imagine getting off the subway at Union Station and not being able to connect to the high-speed--

[Paul Côté]

And having to go to another station.

[Olivia Chow, NDP, Trinity—Spadina, ON]

That's right. You don't want to walk for ten minutes or take another bus to go to the high-speed rail. It does not make sense.

Having said that, because the Union Station construction and renovation and revitalization are occurring, at what point do you think that some decision has to be made if it is to connect with that hub? Because that is the transport hub in Toronto, which is the biggest city in Canada. If this high-speed rail is to move forward and is to be connected to the hub, is there in your mind a bit of a deadline for a decision, a timeline? If not, the train will have passed the station, so to speak, and we'll have missed the train, not the boat.

[Paul Côté]

Regarding specific allocation of space--track space and station space--for a high-speed network connecting into Union Station, obviously it would be difficult to be too precise on that at this moment. I think the direction the development project is trying to take into consideration as we develop GO--and we don't run GO, as you know--as we develop TTC, as we develop VIA Rail, and we develop stations is to do that in the context of much larger ridership than what exists now. That is not exactly the reality of today or the short term, but a vision of a much longer term where ridership will significantly increase, because as transportation experts, I would think that the added network of a high-speed connection would be accommodated, and we would have to make, I suppose, some specific arrangements, as I said, because of its design and specific and unique nature.

I'm not very worried about that, because I think the people who are doing this are visionary enough to account for that.

[Olivia Chow, NDP, Trinity—Spadina, ON]

That's good to know. Okay.

I have just one last question. Do you have a sense of the percentage of passengers who would go from Toronto to Ottawa who are not going Toronto-Kingston, or Toronto-Cornwall, or Toronto-Port Hope, and who are going directly to Ottawa? So if there were high-speed rail, would it be a net gain or a net loss for VIA?

[Paul Côté]

I wish I could be as specific and definite in my answer as I was in the previous answer on this particular question. I think this is where we need to wait for the findings of the consortium's train study, the tripartite three-government project. I think that's what they're looking at. What are the revenue projections? What is the ridership projection in the current context, given all the changes that have happened since the last study?

I don't have this information with me, obviously. We don't run that study, but Monsieur Gravelle and Mr. Kolaitis here with me, who have contributed to previous studies, have made an offer to participate. So at the appropriate time, if we are called upon, we will make our expertise known, and then at that time this image will emerge, but right now we don't know.

[Olivia Chow, NDP, Trinity—Spadina, ON]

Does Ms. Watts have any...?

[The Chair, Conservative, Merv Tweed]

Ms. Brown.

[Lois Brown, Conservative, Newmarket—Aurora, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Thank you, witnesses, for being here today.

Mr. Côté, a couple of things you said today really resonated with me. First of all, your analogy of the backbone is something that I think we Canadians need to hear, because all of us can relate to the benefits of having a backbone that holds us up. I think we need to see this in the context of the bigger vision of what it means to our country in high-speed rail, not just in single access routes like Edmonton to Calgary or Toronto to Montreal. We need to envision this from the much larger perspective.

To carry on that analogy, the backbone is only beneficial, really, when the appendages are all there to work. You spoke to Ms. Chow about the integrated networks that we would need to see. What we didn't touch on was short rail and some of the light rail, such as, for instance, in Toronto, the Scarborough rail that we have there. The integration of those projects would be absolutely critical to how all of this would work. I think that analogy is something that could be fleshed out, if we want to use that term.

One of the things that you also said, though, was that public interest in these issues is high. Could you speak about that? Have you spoken to your clients? How have they reacted to this whole endeavour on high-speed rail? Many of us have had the experience of travelling in Europe; I, for one, have had the experience both in Europe and in Japan and have seen the benefits of high-speed rail in those communities. We are neither of those communities, with our population densities spread out so far, but I wonder if could you speak a little bit about that?

Perhaps, Ms. Watts, you could talk about corridors and this whole idea of the spine. Have there been corridors identified that would, across the country, make a spine that would give us a national vision?

Mr. Côté.

[Paul Côté]

Let me answer your question on the interest this way. There were surveys and polling done by the Railway Association in May of 2008, asking people if they were favourable, somewhat favourable, negative and so forth, and the results indicate that the positive and somewhat positive are in excess of 70%. That's a survey. These are numbers that exist and that we can share with you afterwards if you want.

But let me answer it in a different way. I get many requests to speak to different groups: universities, social clubs, business clubs, and so forth. Inevitably, at every speech and every opportunity I have, the question comes up. Do you think we will have it? Do you think it's going to happen? Do you think there's potential for it? Do you think the government will in fact do it? And every time, I have to be prudent in my answer, because once again, you know, we have to wait for the findings of the study. We're very happy, actually, that the three governments decided to undertake this review.

I sense it and I am asked constantly about it. I know that our employees are wondering about it and wondering if it's ever going to happen. They have the evident question: if high-speed happens, what happens to the company? I always answer the same way, saying that it is premature, and if that decision is made we'll see what the actual business model will be for the operation of passenger rail in the country.

There is, in fact, support for this project. That's all I can say.

[Lois Brown, Conservative, Newmarket—Aurora, ON]

May I just ask one question, then?

[Paul Côté]

Of course.

[Lois Brown, Conservative, Newmarket—Aurora, ON]

With all of the investment that is going into public transit, would you suggest that perhaps we're working at this backwards and that this is a decision that should be made first, because everything else will work out from it?

[Paul Côté]

I don't think we are doing it backwards, actually. We explained this before, but I can elaborate on it.

In terms of the investments currently being made in the company, $923 million, we are investing about $475 million in infrastructure. That money is not going to get wasted and lost. There are regional markets and local markets that will continue and that will require service. I strongly believe they deserve a great rail service, even if it's not directly served by the high-speed rail network, if that ever sees the light of day.

I talked about Cornwall and Coteau and other areas that may not eventually be on the high-speed line. They nevertheless deserve, I think, to have a quality service, and that's what we're doing. We're building up the system gradually. We're increasing speeds and we're increasing capacity to build frequencies. We are investing in our equipment that will be used for regional, local, and intermediate city markets--the LRCs, the locomotives, and so forth. The LRC is one type of equipment that we use.

So in terms of what you said, I don't think so; it's just a natural evolution, I think. As André Gravelle mentioned before, as we go along we need to invest in and build the franchise, which is what we intend to do.

Keep in mind that even if the government were to approve a system now, make a decision now, it would take ten years, let's say, to build. Ten years, I'm told, is a reasonable amount of time that it would take to build. So what do we do in the meantime? We need to continue to build the franchise, develop the markets, and solidify the foundation and the market share of that mode. I believe that.

[Teresa Watts]

In answer to your question, I would first of all support what Mr. Côté said about market research and public support for high-speed rail. That certainly was the case, with comparable levels of support, when we undertook a study in 2004 within the Calgary-Edmonton corridor. Market research revealed similar levels of support.

On the west coast, there is a very high degree of interest in high-speed rail between Vancouver and Seattle, particularly given President Obama's recent interest in high-speed rail. There's been a great deal of discussion, and a lot of support has been expressed around that particular service.

I also agree with the need to integrate these services with other modes, in particular other public transit modes. In both Calgary and Edmonton, the desired station locations in the downtown cores are ones that are in proximity to the light-rail systems that currently serve those communities. That was discussed in this feasibility study and indicated as something that would require more attention once it advanced into more detailed planning and design.

Equally, as far as intermodal issues are concerned, there's high support for station locations in suburban Calgary and suburban Edmonton in proximity to the two international airports. Discussion amongst the steering committee, and certainly the need, in recommendations, to look at how to integrate this high-speed rail service with those other services because of the opportunities to partner with airlines and airports, and to provide improved access generally to those airports and service to the citizens--

[The Chair, Conservative, Merv Tweed]

I'm sorry, we do have a bit of a time squeeze here.

I know that we have guests who are prepared to come forward. I'd like to suggest that we go three minutes in one more round to give everybody one more chance to speak to these guests.

Ms. Findlay.

[Martha Hall Findlay, Liberal, Willowdale, ON]

Thanks very much, Mr. Chair. It's great to be back at the transport committee.

I remain a little bit concerned about the number of studies and the fact that we're now undertaking a multi-million dollar study of studies. In and of itself, that begs some questions. I recognize that this is primarily focused on the 1995 study, but how many studies have there been, ballpark, on a high-speed rail system in Windsor-Quebec?

[Paul Côté]

I would have answered five, but André says about seven, so let's settle for approximately six; it's something like that.

We can give you a more accurate number through the clerk, if you want.

[Martha Hall Findlay, Liberal, Willowdale, ON]

Over what length of time has this been studied?

[André Gravelle]

The first study started back in 1981, so it's been about 30 years.

[Martha Hall Findlay, Liberal, Willowdale, ON]

Out of those, how many recommended that the government of the day in fact invest in a high-speed rail system? Or did they get that far?

[André Gravelle]

There's no specific recommendation that I can remember, but the results of the study were not necessarily conclusive either. They raise many questions in regard to the quantum leaps in ridership, for example, and the cost of the installations.

[Martha Hall Findlay, Liberal, Willowdale, ON]

The 1995 study had a ballpark figure of about $18 billion. I know that this new study will come up with a new number, but do you have some sense of what we might be looking at now?

[Paul Côté]

I don't, but André Gravelle.... I don't know.