The member says ask it to give back the grant that it received to do that study. I think it would probably be willing to do that. In fact, our party has advocated, with the support of the business organizations of this country, an elimination of most, not all, the major business and industrial subsidies. I know individual firms will fight that but we found no resistance to that policy from business organizations. In fact, it is one of the reasons why many of them have been supporting the Reform Party and, I would add, in increasing numbers since the budget came out.
Those were the policies. What I did not see in that list of policies that the business community said were needed to increase jobs was any mention of an infrastructure program. I did not see any mention of increased spending. It was precisely the opposite. It did not say it needed an extra $40 billion in borrowing this year and $100 billion over the next three years. There are a few things in here that are the same as the track the government is on, but the things here are a very different policy than what the job creators say need to be done to create the jobs in this country.
Let us go back for a second to the budget which underlies this particular borrowing bill because it is important to review that and I know I have done this before. The budget is based on a series of economic assumptions. In particular are the following first year assumptions of growth at an annual rate of 3.0 per cent; that interest rates will range in the neighbourhood of 4.5 per cent for the short term benchmark to 6.4 per cent long term; that inflation will remain low in the 1 per cent to 2 per cent range; and that the ability of the tax system to generate income for the government will recover as the economy recovers. It fell last year from about 17.7 per cent down to 16.1 per cent.
These are all important assumptions and most of them are defensible. However, what happens in the subsequent year assumptions to justify these kinds of targets? Growth is projected to increase permanently to about 3.8 per cent. Inflation will continue to stay at record lows. The revenue GDP ratio that the tax system establishes will rise. Unemployment and job creation will increase. Interest rates will not only fall but stay at record lows.
I would point out, as I did in my earlier comments, that these assumptions are somewhat better than the Progressive Conservative assumptions but very much reflective of the same kind of thinking. After a very short time period we are reasonably pessimistic in the first year but after that we can be more optimistic. What we have is a pattern of record low interest rates, record low inflation, a return to growth, not as high as the Conservatives project, and job creation.
What is interesting and I emphasize it again is that overall the government's estimates are more honest than the Conservatives, although still along the same pattern. What is very interesting is the job creation estimate. It is the most realistic estimate in the budget, given the policies of this government.
It is estimated that the unemployment rate will fall from about an 11.2 annual average to 11.1 per cent this year and to 10.8 per cent next year; in other words, an extremely modest, almost no change policy on the total state of the labour force in the country. I say that is a very interesting projection for a government that claims that job creation is its primary purpose.
What this government has done and I commend it for that, although I wish it would be more frank in it, is admit that there is a link between ongoing high deficits and high spending and high levels of unemployment. It has admitted the link for the first time.
Previous governments said that they could keep these high deficits and could engage in gradual reduction strategies, keep deficits very high but the unemployment rate would fall. This government has admitted that as long as it keeps the deficit high, the unemployment rate is going to stay high.
The reason for that is the simple economic fact that the funds needed for job creation are created through private sector investment. Those are the same kinds of funds that governments hit when they go into the marketplace to borrow sums of money in the range of $40 billion a year.
One problem in the government's projections not just for future years but even for this year-it has come up in the House and I want to raise it again-is the projection on interest rates. In my initial speech on Bill C-14 I had indicated to the House that
interest rate projections were already about half a point above, on the long term, what they had been projected to be in the budget.
I said that they were between 6.8 and 6.9 per cent. I apologize to the House if I mislead the House on that. I had written that speech a few days before and by the time I had written it, interest rates were then over 7 per cent on 10 year government bonds.
It is interesting in that context to look at the pattern. There is a very definite pattern that has occurred in the financial markets since the budget was tabled and since we had our prebudget debates when the government gave an indication of its direction.
On February 1 and 2 we hit basically a trough not seen in a long time in interest rates in this country. Let me quote interest rates on government securities. We had a bank rate of 3.87 per cent. We had a rate on six month treasury bills of 3.76 per cent and we had a rate on 10 year government long term bonds of 6.4 per cent.
The government projected in its budget that for this year, 1994, the long term rate, the rate on 10 year bonds, would fall to 6.4 per cent which is actually what it was at on February 2 and that it would fall further in subsequent years to around 6.1 per cent.
It projected that the short term rate, and it used as its benchmark the rate on 90 day commercial paper, would actually rise slightly this year to 5 per cent, which is indicated by the term structure, and would stay there for the next several years. Those numbers are actually identical to the projections that the former government used in framing its last budgetary policies.
The rate on commercial paper continues to be below the rate of the government's projection, that is true, but that rate has been continually rising. It has not been rising as fast as the rate on key government securities.
According to today's Globe and Mail from the period from February 2 until today the bank rate has gone up from 3.87 per cent to 4.22 per cent. That is an increase of 35 basis points. The rate on six month treasury bills has increased from 3.76 per cent to 4.58 per cent. That is a three-quarter of a full percentage point increase in the time period every single week, most of it is since the budget was tabled. On 10 year bonds there has been an increase from 6.4 per cent to 7.38 per cent. It has been hovering around 7.4 per cent for the last several days, or a full percentage point above what the government had projected.
The government has not published all of its interest rate projections for this year, only two. The government continues to insist it can live with numbers like this and come in at the same target that was projected in the budget. I really question that.
What the government certainly cannot have is a continued increase in the rates over the next several weeks. Even since the bank rate was set last week we have had another quarter cent drop in the value of the Canadian dollar.
That is occurring. We know it and we know why. We know it as individual Canadians when talking to our friends and neighbours. We know it as public policy analysts looking at some of the financial newsletters in this country. People are taking their capital out of this country. They are taking their capital out of Canadian government bonds because they are denominated in Canadian dollars. They are putting it elsewhere because there is an increasing insecurity about the financial state of this particular institution, the Government of Canada.
This lack of caution on interest rate projections is the most serious error by this government in its financial planning. We have a debt structure where a huge percentage of our debt is loaded at the front end. The average term of government debt in Canada is two and a half years. The average term excluding treasury bills is four and a half years. These are very short timeframes and very sensitive to unforeseen increases in interest rates.
The government also provides information in the budget which underestimates the sensitivity of its borrowing to changes in interest rates. It is important to note the sensitivity analysis.
People ask me why if all interest rates went up 1 per cent the government says its debt charge would only go up $1.7 billion. Why not $5 billion? Why not 1 per cent of the debt load?
The reason of course is that the debt rolls over. It does not roll over 100 per cent in a single year, but over a very short period of two, three or four years most of it will roll over. The real underestimation in that kind of sensitivity analysis is it does not take into account the fact that the debt itself compounds, not just the interest payments. The debt itself compounds when the level of interest payments and the level of the deficit are underestimated. That is a very serious issue. It is one of the reasons we got ourselves into these kinds of problems.
I remind the government of the importance of real deficit targets. An article in yesterday's Financial Post said that the government does in fact have figures for the third and subsequent years of its financial planning period and it is prepared to table those in August. Why in August? Why do we not see them now? I suspect we will get the same story in August as we got in the budget: The situation is much more serious than government thought and it needs to re-evaluate it. We have heard that story before.
Not only do we have to have a deficit target. Any country in financial problems has to have a debt target. I go back to the fact that the Maastricht treaty does not speak simply of a 3 per cent deficit-GDP target. It speaks of a 60 per cent debt to GDP target. If it is over 60 per cent debt to GDP the only way to achieve that target would be to run zero deficits or even surpluses.
Canada's debt to GDP ratio under this budget even under the government's own assumptions is estimated to rise to a level of 75 per cent of GDP by the end of the planning period. Once again that is only for the federal government and is on a net basis, not on a gross basis which the Maastricht treaty talks about. It talks about gross basis and about all levels of government in the country. These are unsustainable levels.
With respect to the committee and report stages, we agreed to bypass report stage because we are anxious to have meaningful debate and we did not have amendments from committee. Nevertheless I want to mention some things that could have been mentioned in a report stage debate. I did not want to hold the bill up for that, but it is important that we mention it.
Once again there are problems in the process and in some technical aspects. We agreed not to have a report stage debate. However we thought that before we had the third reading debate we would at least have the published minutes of the committee hearings. This is another problem. I point out once again how much the government views this entirely as a rubber stamp process.
I do not have those in my hands and I doubt I will today. Just before I spoke I received a transcript of our hearings on this bill. However the public and we do not have published minutes of the committee hearings and debate on the technical aspects of this bill although we went through report stage and are now on third reading.
That is inexcusable. We are not in so much of a rush here that there is not the right of Parliament and the public to have final published minutes and proceedings of the committee that are relevant to the debate we are now having in the Chamber.
Because of that I am going to take a few minutes to outline some of the technical aspects of the bill. I will indicate quickly some of the discussion in committee and how it might be helpful to the government in the future.
The budgetary deficit is projected to be $39.7 billion. Against that the government is borrowing through internal accounts a sum in the neighbourhood of $9.5 billion. That is the temporary surplus we have on non-budgetary accounts, mainly superannuation accounts.
The government must cover exchange fund earnings of $1.1 billion which are included in budgetary revenue but in fact are not available for normal budgetary purposes and a reserve of contingencies for $3 billion. This is one of the ways the government gives itself some leeway. Although it commits to keep the deficit within bounds it allows for considerable reserve so that it can have access to more borrowing without going directly to Parliament in this fiscal year. That is how we reached the total borrowing authority of $34.3 billion, which the public will note is different from the budgetary deficit.
This is not the greatest control system. The budgetary deficit itself includes $2.4 billion reserves for as yet unplanned expenditures. It is true that Parliament would have to authorize additional expenditures if they were of a non-statutory nature. However these various contingencies of $2.4 billion within the budgetary deficit and $3 billion within the borrowing authority itself provide the government with considerable flexibility to err not only in its interest rate projections but also in various other aspects of its financial planning.
There is nothing wrong with a little bit of leeway. However I would think if we got into errors of that magnitude it would be appropriate for the government to have a system whereby it came back to Parliament. It would explain those errors and ask Parliament for the appropriate authority and discuss why it had erred.
One of the problems with the present reserve and contingency requirements is that they are actually open to multiple justification for their usage. We do not have simply a margin of error on an interest rate or a margin of error on statutory spending. Most of these things can be used in one way or another. That is a serious deficiency of this particular process.
There is another important issue raised in committee which the government should examine. That is the nature of its debt management.
There were some technical questions concerning not only the term structure of the debt but also the tendency of the government to borrow almost exclusively in Canadian dollars. It does so at a time when the value of the Canadian dollar is increasingly unstable and there are risk premiums involved. This will increase the cost of this borrowing to the public, to the government and to the taxpayer.
It also encourages the government in a somewhat less than responsible attitude toward borrowing. By borrowing in Canadian dollars there is a sense of greater flexibility should there be a financial crisis. With the lower yields offered on other currencies it should consider diversifying and of course reducing that borrowing.
I will end very quickly by reminding everyone of the budgetary situation. The government faces a $40 billion deficit. It was higher than we had believed even during the election campaign. The government's response has been the smallest of expenditure cuts, even smaller tax measures and the adoption of various programs that are something probably less than effective in
getting economic recovery. As well it will only add needlessly to our burden.
I oppose the bill. I urge the government once again to reconsider this borrowing and some of the expenditure plans which underlie the borrowing. I promise we will continue to fight this bill and these kinds of policies.
I urge the government to look at its counterpart, the Democratic Party in the United States, which reconsidered in particular the strategy of adding additional spending programs on top of a deficit management situation.