Mr. Speaker, I am pleased to rise in this debate on the motion put forward by the New Democratic Party.
I would, first of all, like to point out that my party supports this motion, because it believes in it fundamentally. The motion, I would recall, condemns the government's budgetary measures, draconian cuts and its lack of concern regarding the vital issues of job creation and individual suffering. It also condemns the government's obsession with inflation, which results in high unemployment.
The Minister of Finance's budget measures have been fruitful, as we saw last week in Vancouver. The deficit for the past fiscal year will be about $9 billion.
I would, however, add something to this estimate. I would recall that, last February, when the Bloc Quebecois expressed the possibility that the deficit in the fiscal year ending March 31, 1997 would not be higher than $10 billion, the Minister of Finance said that we did not know what we were talking about, because he was then speaking of a $19 billion deficit. That was eight months ago.
He was still talking about a $19 billion deficit for the last fiscal year, so when we pointed to a deficit of some $10 billion and accused him of not being totally honest with the public, he said we were incompetent. Eight months later, he acknowledges the Bloc Quebecois was right in its estimates, because he himself announced that the deficit would be somewhere around $8.9 billion.
Unless one is a total incompetent, it is impossible to err in predictions by 53% in eight months. It is impossible. Today I reminded the Minister of Finance of what I told him last week in Vancouver: that he was not intellectually honest, that it was dishonest of him to present incorrect figures on the deficit, as he has done since becoming Minister of Finance.
His predictions were terrible, way out of line. Again on Sunday evening, I was with the president of the forecasting firm Informetrica. We discussed the Department of Finance's estimating methods and realized that, however we looked at the February figures, trying to make adjustments between revenues and expenditures, that is, tax revenues and expenditures, there was no way the Minister of Finance could maintain in February his forecast deficit of $19 billion. Everything pointed to a deficit of between $10 and $12 billion.
The minister withheld information from the public to avoid any debate on the drastic cuts he imposed on the provinces for social programs, employment insurance and other initiatives that directly affect Quebeckers and Canadians.
With respect to these cuts, the minister showed a total lack of compassion since tabling his very first budget, but particularly since his 1996 budget. Where did our dear Minister of Finance take the money to achieve such results? He took it out of the pockets of the poor. He got the money by slashing social programs, by cutting $6 billion per year from programs designed to help the poor. By the year 2003, federal transfers to fund social assistance programs administered by the provinces, to fund higher education, which is also administered by the provinces and which is a field under exclusive provincial jurisdiction, and to fund health will have undergone cumulative cuts of $42 billion by the Minister of Finance. These are the minister's own figures.
If we look at his 1996 budget and planned cuts until the year 2003, we see that, for the fiscal year that just ended, the minister cut $4.6 billion. In 1997-98, which is the current fiscal year, cuts will reach $10.9 billion and will affect provincially administered programs in the social assistance, higher education and health sectors. In 1998-99, cuts will total $17.2 billion, then $23.5 billion in 1999, and so on, for a cumulative total of $42 billion.
So when the Minister of Finance tells us that his government announced it would invest $6 billion in social and health programs over the next five years, this has nothing to do with the $42 billion it will cut and will continue to cut until 2003. It does not present an accurate picture to the public of what this government is really doing to help the most disadvantaged.
Last week, the Minister of Finance announced that several hundreds of millions of dollars would be earmarked annually to help the poorest members of society, to revitalize the health sector, to provide scholarships for students. This assistance is a sham. It shows a lack of intellectual honesty to give this impression, when there are going to be $42 billion in cuts in the very sectors they are claiming to want to focus on in order to help the most disadvantaged, the ill, and students.
Cuts in social transfers to the provinces represent 53% of the federal government's spending cuts. It is not the government, but the provinces, that have done the work. The proof is that for every $1 cut in health care in Quebec, 93 cents was because of the decision by the federal Minister of Finance to cut Quebec's health transfers. Ninety-three cents on every dollar.
As for social assistance and post-secondary education, every time Quebec cut a dollar in these sectors, 73 cents was because of cuts by the federal Minister of Finance. So we are not talking about peanuts. This year, for the first time, Quebec would have balanced its budget, had it not been for the drastic cuts by the Minister of Finance.
It is all very well to tell us about the Minister of Finance's wonderful ability to manage, but any old biped of average intelligence would have done exactly the same thing. It is easy to steal from your neighbour and say that you came by our money honestly. That is what the Minister of Finance has done. He has had others do the work. He has also had the unemployed workers of Quebec and of Canada do some of the work. For the past three years, he has asked them to contribute almost $20 billion to help reduce his deficit. How did he do this? By keeping premiums abnormally high, by generating surpluses that will reach $13 billion this year.
So, we went from a $6 billion deficit in the UI fund in 1993 to $13 billion in accumulated surpluses this year. The calculation is simple: the $6 billion deficit was eliminated by imposing very high employer and employee premium rates and by making the employment insurance plan stricter. Add $13 billion to that and there are the $19 billion that did not go to the unemployed these past three and a half years.
That is $19 billion taken away from the unemployed, that should have been used, partly at least, to pay benefits to the unemployed to help them get back to work. But it was not. This amount could also have been used to create jobs. Again, it was not. Job creation is not important to this government. If it was important, we would not have 1.5 million unemployed workers in this country. If it was important, the employment insurance premium rates would not be maintained at an artificially high level, as they currently are; premiums rates, which are payroll taxes, would be lowered.
High premium rates slow sustainable and meaningful job creation. Now that the public finances are in better shape and that he has the most vulnerable taxpayers to thank for that, what is the Minister of Finance waiting for to correct the situation, by admitting his mistake and his responsibility in the deteriorating poverty situation?
Again, we must not think that billions of dollars, $42 billion by the year 2003, can be cut without serious harm being caused to the people of Quebec and Canada and without this being reflected somewhere in the statistics on poverty. It already is.
There is reference to child poverty. The incidence of child poverty was 14.5% in 1989. The percentage of children living in families below the poverty line was 14.5. At the present time, the figure is 20.5%, a rise of 4.5%, and this is connected to the Minister of Finance's policies, the Minister of Finance's drastic cuts to social programs. That is the only explanation there is.
When we look at unemployment, the minister is boasting of fantastic surpluses in the unemployment insurance fund, which he is putting toward reduction of the deficit, when we look at the restrictions which have helped accumulate the unemployment insurance fund surplus, the restrictions to the new employment insurance program, we see that this is no joke.
In 1990, 77% of the unemployed, the men and women who lost their jobs, were entitled to unemployment insurance. This year, only 41% were. Why? Because the rules were tightened up. The eligibility requirements were tightened up.
So where do you think people go today, when they are no longer entitled to unemployment insurance? Most go on welfare. They become marginal. Once again, the one responsible is the Minister of Finance. He is the one who pretends to have a heart, while in fact he has no compassion, none whatsoever, along with the rest of the government, for the most disadvantaged and for the unemployed. He is the one responsible, he is the one marginalizing workers, who end up cut off from the realities of the workplace, once they are marginalized and forced onto welfare. They are cut off from that reality, and it is hard to get back to a normal job search afterward. One has to be close to the labour market to improve one's chances of finding work. The Minister of Finance totally disregarded that aspect in his efforts to meet his budgetary objectives.
The motion tabled by the NDP also deals with the monetary policy. It is the federal government which dictates the main thrusts of the monetary policy to Gordon Thiessen, the Governor of the Bank of Canada. At the very least, the minister sends signals, even though he does not administer the monetary policy himself. He sends signals to the Governor of the Bank of Canada on behalf of his government, so that the latter will apply specific interest rate policies.
The Minister of Finance, who claims to support employment and who gives all kinds of wrong figures, which makes me wonder about his intellectual honesty, tells the Bank of Canada: “Go ahead with the strong medicine; interest rates must go up as soon as economic recovery is in sight. We must not create too many jobs. It would generate inflationary pressure. Go ahead, raise interest rates. Do what the Bank of Canada used to do, which was to apply strong medicine whenever there was any emerging inflationary trend”.
The minister agrees with this policy. Last week, in the Globe and Mail , while everyone else in Canada was criticizing—