Mr. Speaker, it is a pleasure to continue to speak today about Kyoto, something we all feel strongly about. The government has decided to ram it through the House without any consultation with Canadians and it is threatening its own members with an election call if they oppose it.
I must make it clear again why I am doing this. I am doing this so Canadians would realize just how much impact this protocol would have on their very way of life, on what they do and what it would cost them. They must remember that they are being asked to change their lifestyle by reducing their use of carbon by 20%.
There is a lot of new material that we need to go through today. Many members will have the opportunity talk about Kyoto and its implications to them. The main message must be that they need to carry this issue home and tell their constituents. I will repeat for members across the way that we must get to families with kids who are trying to get their new house and who drive their kids to hockey games. We need to talk to people on fixed incomes who cannot bear the additional cost that will be put on them by probably a lot of things other than this climate change treaty.
This treaty is asking people to reduce their carbon use by 20%. However this treaty would increase their cost anywhere from 25% to possibly 100% for the very things they need to live. We need to talk to these people. We need to engage them in this issue. I urge people to talk to their members of Parliament. I hope the Prime Minister is getting 10 times the number of e-mails that we are getting so he will know how serious this issue really is.
We have talked about the loss of jobs. We have talked about the billions of dollars this can cost for simply reducing CO
. It is important that we get on the record Statistics Canada figures that show the situation today for monthly bills and the situation that will exist after Kyoto. These figures are averages and there are probably some mistakes in them. They are the very figures that the government should be making clear to Canadians.
I want to go through these figures province by province and I will start with the province of British Columbia. It is estimated that the average natural gas bill in British Columbia today is $80.92. After Kyoto that bill would be $129.47. We should think about that and its effect on the people we should be talking to. These are Statistics Canada and Industry Canada figures. With regard to electricity a bill of $79.33 would go up to $122.96. A gasoline bill for the average person driving to work or driving the kids to a hockey game of $142.83 per month would go up to $214.25.
We are talking about three things here: natural gas, electricity and gasoline. We are talking about things that the government is asking Canadians to reduce by 20%. It is telling people to reduce their driving by 10%. Interestingly enough, just for the record, with regard to the car count, there are four minister's cars outside the House of Commons at this point in time and one of them is running. It happens to be the environment minister's car. That talks about commitment. We would not want the environment minister to get cold when he goes out to his car.
In Alberta the bill of $83.50 for natural gas would go to $133.60. Electricity would go from $71.58 to $110.95 and gasoline would go from $157.41 to $236.12. I think average Canadians are getting the message that there would be increases.
Let us go on to Saskatchewan. Natural gas at $79.75 for the average bill would go to $127.60. Electricity would go from $80.50 to $124.78 and gasoline would go from $155.41 to $233.12.
We could work these out on a yearly basis with other taxes that Canadians pay but it shows what we are going after. We are using Statistics Canada numbers to come up with these figures. That is the important thing to remember. They do not come from a special interest group.
In Manitoba natural gas would go from $76.25 to $122.00. Electricity would go from $83.33 to $129.16 and gasoline would go from $155.03 to $233.00.
Let us go on to Ontario. Many people in Ontario say that they do not think they would be affected much. For example, the Syncrude tar sands project, 60% of the manufacturing jobs are in Ontario. How can they possibly think they would not be affected? Their jobs would be affected. Natural gas would go from $91.33 to $146.13. So far, the biggest impact would be on the people of Ontario. Their electricity bill go from $91.16 to $141.30 and their gasoline would go from $169.92 to $254.88, according to Statistics Canada figures.
People can say that their situation is different because they do not drive far to work. However, I found a lot of people in Ontario that drive a long way to work compared with my standard where I live. I live eight minutes from my office. How many people watching this and thinking about these figures live eight minutes from their office? I know lots of people who live an hour from their office. They should think about their gasoline bill from these Statistics Canada figures.
Let us go on to Quebec where natural gas or fuel oil would go from $61.75 to $98.80. The electricity bill of $106.00 would go to $164.30. It is less of an increase because of hydro and so on, but it would still be an increase. Gasoline would go from $162.50 to $243.75.
In New Brunswick natural gas and fuel oil would go from $70.17 to $112.27. The electricity bill would go from $135.50 to $210.03 and gasoline would go from $189.00 to $283.50.
In Nova Scotia natural gas or fuel oil would go from $99.58 to $159.33. Electricity would go from $96.42 to $149.45 and gasoline would go from $173.00 to $259.50.
In Prince Edward Island natural gas or fuel oil is very expensive. It would go from $114.00 to $182.40 under Kyoto. Electricity would go from $74.33 to $115.21 and gasoline would go from $193.42 to $290.13.
In Newfoundland natural gas and fuel oil would go from $98.17 to $157.07. Electricity would go from $118.83 to $184.19 and gasoline would go from $162.83 to $244.25.
Mr. Speaker, can you see what is happening? Can you see why we have to do this sort of thing to show Canadians that it would cost them. There is a cost to Kyoto and they desperately need to realize that.
People out there might be saying that those are averages and asking where the figures came from. Those figures came from Statistics Canada. I guess we have to believe that department. They are the government's figures. If our researchers and I were able to come up with these figures, why could the government not include them in its plans for the Kyoto protocol? It is pretty obvious. The Prime Minister and the environment minister are saying that it would not cost very much and people in Canada would not notice much change. The Prime Minister in waiting is saying that if it would affect Canadians very much, we would not implement it.
Well, it would impact all Canadians a lot. It would impact my children and grandchildren a lot. The government says there is no impact and that it would not impact one province over another. When I look at the actual figures what am I to assume? I assume that the government either does not know, does not care, or is deceiving Canadians. Why would the government do something like that? That is the big question. The only thing I can possibly see is a legacy question. If one were to leave one's successor with enough bad things, then it would destroy him as well.
A lot of politicians will have a lot of trouble with those figures. Trying to convince Canadians that we voted for something that did that to them without telling them I think would put us in a pretty terrible position come next election time. That is really what it is all about.
I also have figures that I would like to share with the House because there are some variations and maybe some people could not relate to the provincial numbers. Statistics Canada breaks this down by city. I do not want to deal with every city in Canada, but let me deal with just a few of them so we drive the message home to people.
I will begin with Victoria, and the member for Victoria just happens to be the environment minister. How are his constituents going to feel when they find out that their member agreed to taking an average natural gas fuel oil price of $54.42, which is low, to $87.07? The electricity bill in Victoria would go from $78.58 to $121.80. Gasoline would go from $130.92 to $196.38.
What will people say about their member of Parliament who supported this, tried to ram it through the House, tried to ratify it by the end of the year, and threatened that we would have an election if we did not vote for it? How will the electorate feel when it finds out that its member was the one who did that?
That should be good for opposition parties, but I want members to know that they have been warned another way. They should think about the next election and they should think about justifying Kyoto and what it means to them.
Vancouver is a major city. Natural gas would go from $96.25 to $154.00. Electricity would go from $85.50 to $132.53 under Kyoto and gasoline would go from $150.00 to $225.00.
My daughter and son-in-law have two young boys, a two year old and a five year old. The husband works in downtown Vancouver. He is a paramedic there. Our daughter is a nurse. She drives every day and takes the kids to a sitter and out to activities afterward. I know that they spend more than $150 on gas now. I know that they are having a tough time meeting all their bills and all their commitments. They bought a house and have payments on the house. They are trying to give the kids every opportunity they can. The five year old goes to kindergarten and loves it. The two year old has to go to the sitter. Let us say that a gas bill is $150 and would go up to $225. I think their gas bill is $300, so it would go to $500. That probably is just about enough to literally bankrupt them.
That is what the Kyoto accord is all about. That is what the government refuses to talk about. It refuses to put a cost on it. It refuses to talk about implementation. This is where the rubber hits the road. This is where real Canadians are at. This is where the costs are going to be, so why would we ram this through?
Let us move on to places in Alberta. If in Calgary the bill is $86.50 for natural gas, it would go up to $138. The electricity bill would go from $67.92 to $105.28. We must remember that Alberta has a lot of coal generated electricity and the stations are going to have to be retrofitted and changed to natural gas. Not only will that natural gas have to be used to provide power for Albertans, it will not be for sale to the U.S., which means it will not add to the GDP, which means it will not be taxed by the federal government and which means that the revenue for the federal government is going to go down dramatically. I suppose, while the government talks about this feel good plan, that it will shut down the tar sands as well. That is literally bigger than Saudi Arabia. It adds to the Canadian GDP and is the reason why Alberta sends such large transfer payments to the rest of Canada.
We must remember that from those tar sands 60% of the jobs generated are in Ontario. Can we see why the people are so upset? Can we see why they are trying to tell the government that? Yesterday I read out comments from every province as to why they all are so upset about this and not on side.
Let us turn now to Saskatoon. It is $74 for natural gas today and will be $118.40 tomorrow. Electricity is at $76.33 and it will be $118.31. Gasoline is at $163.17 and will go up to $244.76.
I do not want to stand up in the House a year, two years or five years from now and say that there was a speech given back in November 2002 that told the House all about these price increases. I do not want to say “I told you so”. I do not want to do that. That is the last thing that I want to accomplish. What I want to accomplish now is to show that this is what is going to happen, so that people can react to this and let their members of Parliament know that they do not want to bull ahead with this until they know what the exact costs are, until we know how the government is going to implement it and how it is going to impact on them.
Let us go on to Winnipeg, where the Manitoba government supports this, sort of. Yesterday the House heard quotes from Mr. Sale and, boy, that is support as long as the federal government is prepared to provide a lot of money for Manitoba's hydroelectricity and get it into the Ontario power grid. That is real environmental support. Really, economics is the cause, nothing else, and I am talking economics today.
Let us look at Winnipeg, where natural gas and fuel oil costs would go from $82.75 to $132.40, electricity costs from $66.92 to $103.73, and gasoline from $143.58 to $215.37. These are Statistics Canada figures broken down city by city and province by province. It is going to cost all Canadians. Do they know it? Are their members of Parliament telling them? That is the very purpose of what we are trying to do here.
Let us look at Toronto. In Toronto the average natural gas fuel oil cost is $102.92 and will go to $164.67; electricity is $87.42 and will go to $135.50; gasoline is $188.83 and will go to $283.25. That is in Toronto where people drive further than a lot of us do. Yes, the government says it will put in more rapid transit and will spend more money. If we are going to spend more money, I would like to ask our finance critic if he thinks there will be billions of dollars to be spent on all of this. After we are finished with health care, I do not really know that this will be the case.
Let us move on to Quebec City or Montreal. Looking at Montreal, it costs $74.42 for natural gas or fuel oil and will go to $119.07; electricity is $103.16 and will go to $159.90; gasoline is $155.42 and will go to $233.13. In Quebec City natural gas is $58.75 and will go to $90.80; electricity is $99.83 and will go to $154.74; gasoline is $143.75 and will go to $215.63.
I know these figures are a little boring, but let us move on to Newfoundland, where right now natural gas or fuel oil costs $110.83 and will go to $177.33; electricity is $125.08 and will go to $193.87; gasoline is $159.17 and under Kyoto will go to $238.76.
Those are the Statistics Canada figures. Those are the numbers that Canadians are not being told about. Canadians have a right to know what it is going to cost, how it is going to be implemented, which industries will be targeted, because targets are talked about, and how we are going to do all of this. Where are we going to get the money to pay initiatives and incentives? Where are we going to do it? Yes, we should do something. Everyone has said that over and over. Ad nauseam, people have agreed that we should do something.
What I am afraid of most in the whole Kyoto protocol debate is that we will have a Prime Minister who is leaving and does not care, who will ratify it, put his name on it, look good internationally and say “I delivered Kyoto”. That will be his legacy, just as Mr. Mulroney's legacy is the GST, just as Mr. Trudeau's legacy is the national energy program, bilingualism and so on. They have had legacies, all right, and the Prime Minister's legacy will be Kyoto. I just do not think he realizes what kind of legacy that is going to be for him and what Canadians are going to think of that.
Then we have a Prime Minister in waiting. He says we can ratify it and he thinks maybe he might vote to ratify it. He says if it is going to hurt us at all we will not go ahead with it. One more time for the record, Mr. Speaker, and you could probably say this with me in unison because you have heard it, according to the Marrakesh accord, nations who ratify Kyoto but do not meet their targets in round one by 2012 are penalized another 30% in emissions cuts. In addition, such nations cannot sell carbon credits in round two. The accord goes on to say that countries are given 90 days and if they cannot achieve the targets they can buy credits.
If our finance critic happens to be the finance minister in 2012, he is going to be faced, as will the government, with coming up with billions of dollars to send to places like Russia to buy credits so we can get into round two of Kyoto. We must remember that round one is going to deliver only a 5% reduction of CO
in the world, because developing countries are not part of it and the U.S. is not part of it and because so many countries have realized the economic hit and have said they could not be part of this.
There are penalties. No one can stand up and say in honesty that we will ratify this and then maybe not deliver on implementation, because there are penalties.