Good evening, Mr. Chair. My name is Brian McGee and I am the chief nuclear officer for AECL.
The reactor operated safely up to and including the time of the reactor shutdown. We are completely confident of that and I believe that it is a matter of record that CNSC staff have agreed with that as well.
When the apparent disconnect between the physical plant and the licensing basis and the safety case were brought to our attention, it was imperative on our part to make a decision to hold the reactor in a shutdown state while we resolved that situation.
In parallel with that, on the morning of November 30 we submitted a safety case to CNSC staff, which we considered to be an adequate safety case to demonstrate that the reactor could be operated safely with one pump upgraded. There were some deficiencies in the opinion of staff at that time that were identified and from our own notes we went away to work on those activities.
On the afternoon of November 30, we met with staff again in a different forum to discuss seeking a licence amendment on the basis that we were informed that we were, in their view, outside the licensing basis for the facility. At that time, as we understood the feedback from staff, they could not put forward our case to the commission seeking a commission hearing to discuss a licence amendment until the safety case issues had been adequately resolved within the CNSC staff.
The time line that was discussed on Friday and subsequently discussed between myself and Mr. Howden was that the expectation was something in the neighbourhood of seven days for us to resolve the safety case related items and put senior CNSC staff in a position where they could do what we understood to be a risk informed decision making process.
Depending on the outcome of that risk informed decision making process, we then understood that if it were successful, they would make a recommendation to put the case before the commission at a time line that was somewhat uncertain, but, as we understood it, probably would not happen in the month of December. That put me in a position where it was apparent that the most expedient way to return the reactor to service would be to do the upgrade on both pumps.
We still believe our safety case that we submitted on November 30 is adequate. It is important to know that these pumps, in their current configuration without being upgraded, have two power supplies, one of which is a class I power supply backed up by batteries and a diesel that we believe is adequate to ensure safe operation.
In the design basis event that we are talking about, if a severe earthquake, a once in 1,000 year event, were to occur and the power supplies were lost, we would not have, as Mr. Howden earlier described, forced flow to the reactor. We would have about half an hour for operator action to address that situation and, in the absence of any operator action in the time frame of about one hour, we would begin to experience dry out and the onset of fuel failures.
In that worst case scenario, and I am still talking about neither pump being upgraded, the dose to workers and the public would be within recognized guidelines for power reactors. At that point, while it is obviously not an event that is desirable in any form, even in the worst case we are dealing with doses to the workers and the public that are still within acceptable ranges.
The upgrade of one pump, which is essentially where we are and what our safety case supported, puts the situation in a 1 in 50,000 year range. With one pump upgraded, the probability analysis would say that we are in the 1 to 50,000 year range. With both pumps upgraded, we are in the 1 to 500,000 year range for this type of event.
One other thing is important. At the time of the November 30 meeting and the feedback that we received from staff, if I had done anything else other than keep the reactor in a shutdown state, I would have been knowingly and wilfully violating the licence at that point.
The commissioner has made several comments both at the CNSC hearings and here tonight that we violated the licence. We do not believe that is true and we do not believe that right now if we were to restart the reactor we would be in violation.
We can demonstrate through factual evidence that we can make available to everyone, both CNSC correspondence documentation and our own, that shows that CNSC staff knew at the time of licensing that these upgrades were not complete and we can make that information available to this House.
Our safety report that we submit at the end of every year, so most recently 2005 and 2006, both identify that these upgrades were not complete.