Mr. Speaker, I am somewhat pleased and somewhat not pleased to be rising today on this opposition day motion. I have to wonder this: In what world do we have a country so blessed with natural resources, but members of Parliament must stand up to advocate for actually developing and selling the resources? Only in Canada do we have that.
I want to quote the dearly departed Rex Murphy. He was talking about a very similar bill brought forward by the Liberals. It was Bill C-50, but this applies today. He offered up a title for it. He called it, “An Act to Inspire, Lubricate, and in all other manners Facilitate the Separation of Alberta from [Canada]”. This is very much what this government seems hell-bent on doing. At a time when separatist leanings are on the rise in Alberta, along comes the Liberal government to try to make things worse.
President Reagan famously stated, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help”, but this government seems to be saying, “I am from the Liberal government and I am here to make things worse”.
I want to start by listing all the countries in the world that have an oil and gas cap. There are none. Not a single country in the world has an oil and gas production cap or an emissions cap. Just to be sure, I asked ChatGPT if it could name any, and it came back saying it could not find credible evidence that any oil-producing country has in place a regulatory cap. There are effectively no other countries that have a cap on oil and gas production or emissions. I looked far and wide, and no one else does it, so why are the Liberals the only government in the world looking to have their country commit economic suicide? That is basically what an oil and gas cap is.
The Fraser Institute just came out with a report showing that, in the last five years, GDP growth per capita has been the worst since the Great Depression. That is, wealth creation has been the worst since the Great Depression in the last five years, which of course coincides with the five years the current Prime Minister was the economic adviser to Justin Trudeau. Here we have the economic adviser for the worst five-year performance of our economy and wealth creation since the Great Depression.
What is the Liberals' solution to all this? What is their solution to the issues of rising unemployment, catastrophic youth unemployment and a productivity crisis? It is to push the economy off the cliff altogether.
I want to quote some chilling numbers from the Conference Board of Canada on what would result from an oil and gas cap. We have previously heard the Parliamentary Budget Officer state some numbers, but this is from the Conference Board: “To illustrate the magnitude of these impacts, under the most likely scenario...the cumulative reduction in GDP over the 11-year forecast would be...$597 billion in nominal terms between 2030 and 2040.” That is almost a $600-billion loss in GDP.
We have a productivity crisis, as mentioned. The most productive work in the country, with the most value added, is in our oil and gas industry, and the government is bent on destroying it. The report further says, “Real GDP in the oil and gas sector alone [will be] reduced by between $14.2 and $25.7 billion”, which is “11...per cent from the baseline”. It says that in total employment there will be a loss of “151,000 [jobs] in 2030, boosting the unemployment rate...despite a modest reduction in labour force participation rates.” They are saying that even with fewer workers in our economy, unemployment will go up.
To put 151,000 jobs in context, there are about 25 million or 26 million people working in Canada out of a population of about 42 million. That would be the equivalent of every single person currently working in Burnaby being without a job. Every single person in Kitchener, Ontario, would be without a job, or in Longueuil or Windsor. It would be every single person. That is what the government would do.
Manufacturing would also take a hit and lose about 10,000 jobs by 2030. Who do Liberal members from Ontario think is buying all those Ford F-150s? It is construction workers and oil and gas workers in Alberta. Manufacturing would be wiped out.
Commercial services employment will drop by 52,000, and slackness in the labour market will contribute to a 1% reduction in nominal wages. We already have an issue right now with dropping wages. Apart from the government flooding the country with temporary foreign workers, blocking young people from being able to take jobs and suppressing wages, the Liberals want to come along and say, “Hey, I am here from the Liberal government; I am here to make things worse.”
For Alberta, I hope I will see the Liberal member for Edmonton Centre or the member for Calgary Confederation rise in the House to speak to this motion, so we hear what they have to say. I would like to see them stand and stand up for Alberta in today's debate. This is what the Conference Board says is going to happen to Alberta: “real GDP in Alberta” will decline by “$28.5 billion”. We are looking at a $6-billion deficit in Alberta this year, and the government wants to take another $28 billion. That will be about a 7% drop in our GDP “relative to the baseline in 2030.” Alberta's GDP will decline a further $31 billion “per year between 2030 and 2040 in real [dollars]”.
Thirty billion dollars is almost the total amount we spend on health care in the province right now, and the Liberal government wants to take that money away for no reason. I look forward to the members for Edmonton Centre and Calgary Confederation standing in the House and explaining why they are going to back the Liberal government in trying to shut down Alberta's economy.
The report continues, saying that employment, of course, will be shut. There will be 102,000 fewer jobs in Alberta, but the report goes on. There is some good news from the report on the Liberals' attempt to destroy our economy. Here is the great news; there is an upside: The “negative [economic] impacts” of the oil and gas production cap will be “mitigated slightly by lower interest rates and a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.” Why? It is because we will have economic collapse.
Last week, it was quite funny watching the Minister of Finance cheer that it was a great day for Canada because interest rates dropped. He does not seem to realize that interest rates are dropping because the economy is in the tank; it is collapsing. A lower economic output results in lower interest rates, but the finance minister is cheering it on. He does not seem to understand that low interest rates are a problem.
We are going to see lower interest rates because of lower economic activity and a continued depreciation of our dollar. The oil and gas industry is the main thing propping up our dollar right now. It is our largest export, and the Liberals want to crater it altogether.
A great comment from the past Liberal minister of energy, who is probably going off with his tail between his legs to a posting overseas, was that “oil [and gas] is probably peaking this year”. That was in 2024.
A year later, the International Energy Agency releases a report. The IEA is probably one of the most ideologically captured international organizations. It is no longer a friend to the oil and gas industry. It says that demand is going to increase to a record high this year, not a record drop. OPEC and Goldman Sachs say that we will have growing demand to 2050.
Canada is the third-largest surplus producer in the world. By surplus, I mean that there is a difference between what we produce and what we consume. Higher than us are Russia and Saudi Arabia. Shutting down our oil and gas does not mean the world reduces oil and gas consumption. It moves on to the next producers, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Probably, in the Kremlin's cafeteria right now, they are changing the employee of the month picture to show the Liberal caucus, because all it is going to do is drive jobs and money from Canada to put in the pockets of dictators.
We need to reverse that. We need to grow jobs and revenue in Canada, not send them away to foreign dictators.