Madam Speaker, I have a question for my eminent colleague, who is a major wine producer. But I will not mince my words.
What does he think of the following facts, given the credibility of the Minister of Finance, for whom he says he speaks?
Barely two and a half months ago, the Minister of Finance presented forecasts in his economic statement. At that time, he told us that the surplus for 1999-2000, that is the period ending March 31 of this year, would be $5 billion.
Two and a half months later, he brings down his budget and, big surprise, the Minister of Finance—the same one, unless it was his brother or a clone, but they look very similar—is talking about a $7.5 billion surplus, a $2.5 billion increase in two and a half months. What a strange coincidence: $2.5 billion and two and a half months—2.5 and 2.5. His forecast changed by 21% in two and a half months; this is a serious problem.
In addition, the very day the budget was brought down, there was a copy of The Fiscal Monitor , a publication put out by his department, in the lock-up room. In the third point of the second column on page two, it says that for the first nine months of this fiscal—in other words, the first three quarters—the surplus was $10.9 billion.
It was $5 billion two and a half months ago, $7.5 billion in the budget and $10.9 billion for the first three quarters of 1999-2000.
Yesterday I opened the newspaper and saw another discrepancy in the minister's forecasts. This morning, he said that the tax cuts, the Canada social transfer that he forecast in his budget could change, because he had taken a very pessimistic approach, and that we were not to worry, that the figures would change.
I look at this: a forecasting error of 21% in two and a half months, of 65% the same day—according to The Fiscal Monitor on budget day—, and, tomorrow, discrepancies of perhaps 70% between what he brought down in the budget and what he will actually do.
What sort of credibility does the Minister of Finance have? How can we view the budget brought down barely two days ago as a solid foundation? How does he explain his about-face and his election-minded fancy footwork in response to opposition to his budget?