Mr. Speaker, it is a pleasure for me to rise today to speak to the issue of Kyoto, particularly as the member of Parliament representing the riding of Haldimand--Norfolk--Brant, which has large emitters such as Stelco steel, Ontario Power Generation and Imperial Oil. Also, on the other side, I represent a very rural agricultural area that grows a lot of corn and provides a lot of opportunity in the agricultural area in terms of ethanol and biomass, which is also a product of this agreement and is particularly important within the action plan that Canada has put forward.
It is also a pleasure, Mr. Speaker, as you know, with both of us having been elected in 1988, to really come back to a similar debate we experienced after first being elected, and that was the free trade debate. Both of us sat through that debate and a lot of what is being said in this debate on Kyoto is not unfamiliar to me. It is very similar to what we heard in 1988, but from different sides. Back then it was really the business community, the manufacturers, that were saying that Canada had to look forward, to move forward on the issue and not be scared by all of the comments that were being put forward at that time, probably by many environmentalists. This time we are hearing from the other side. It is the environmentalists who are telling us to take a so-called leap of faith and move forward on these issues. It is a pleasure for me to delve into this sort of debate in this place.
We heard earlier in this debate from the Leader of the Opposition that the science on climate change is debatable. I would like to question that, because it is certainly an easy comment for the Leader of the Opposition to make that somehow not every scientist in the world agrees with this. That is probably the case. Not all scientists do agree with this issue, but I want to speak about a large majority of the scientists.
I want to speak about the scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That panel reported in 2001 that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years was attributable to human activities. Its credibility has been endorsed by 17 national science academies, which concluded, in a statement published on May 18, 2001, on the work of the IPPC that:
The work of the...IPCC represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. We recognize the IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information on climate change and its causes, and we endorse its method of achieving this consensus. Despite increasing consensus on the science underpinning predictions of global climate change, doubts have been expressed recently about the need to mitigate the risks posed by global climate change. We do not consider such doubts justified.
There is a large amount of science out there, and large numbers of pure science people who really do believe, and have done the science, to say that the world is changing, that our climate is changing. There is a strong consensus. It is generally accepted, in fact, that the average temperature of the globe has increased about 0.6° Celsius since the late 1800s, over both land and sea. This was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations environmental program, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The global climate is affected by many other factors, including solar output, volcanic emissions, aerosols and of course what we are talking about here today, CO
2
emissions. But none of these natural factors affecting climate change seem to easily explain why the globe is warming.
The majority of scientists now believe that the cause of the recent global warming is the human discharge in the atmosphere of large quantities of carbon dioxide or CO
2
In Canada we are already feeling the effects of climate change. I ask those who question it to look out the window. The hon. member from western Canada who just spoke can clearly see the effects of climate change in recent years .
I know that many feel we might get a warm day here or a cold day there but they really do not see the impact. However, scientists around the world, who look at the numbers and study them, have definitively concluded that there is an impact and there is an impact here in Canada. We have had a larger number of heat waves with increasing intensity and the related health problems caused by them. The water levels in the Great Lakes have been declining. Fish migration has changed. The polar ice cap is melting. The forests in British Columbia have become infested with insects. We have had hotter summers and higher levels of smog in major urban centres. We have had more extreme weather events, such as droughts on the Prairies, ice storms in eastern Canada, and flooding in Quebec and Manitoba. As climate change related events such as these become more frequent, they will have a profound effect on our economy, our health and our quality of life.
The question, though, that we need to concentrate on is how to make Kyoto best work for Canadians. For me in my area, I need to know how this plan will deal with large emitters, in particular on a sector by sector basis. We said as a government that we do not want to disadvantage any sector. It is important that we remember this.
One of the areas I have worked on, as a member of Parliament representing the steel industry, is a plan for the credit for early action of the industry because that is an industry that in fact has taken early action. I am glad to say that it is now sitting down and working with government to make sure that this is recognized and that it does become a reality. I feel that it would be important to encourage, and not discourage, these companies from taking early action and that this should be enshrined in any implementation strategy.
There was a question from many, particularly those on the other side, as to how we can rush into ratifying the Kyoto protocol when we do not know what its economic impacts will be. In this plan we clearly state that we do not need to, nor will we, export jobs or opportunities to meet our climate change goals. Our government is committed to the 1997 agreement of the first ministers that no province and no region will bear an unreasonable share of the burden for climate change and that business in Canada remains competitive in the global marketplace.
The plan, I believe, meets this test. Canada's gross domestic product will grow by about 17.5% as a result of the way the economy is moving over the next eight years. It is believed that will be about 0.4% less growth than we might have expected otherwise. The projected impact on employment is estimated to be about a five or six week delay in job creation. Approximately 1.32 million jobs are expected to be created over the period from 2002 to 2012. Using the most likely scenario, this would be reduced to about 1.26 million jobs. This means a forgone employment growth of not more than 60,000 jobs, which is about a month or a month and a half worth of job creation as we have created jobs now.
As I said earlier, I will be sharing my time with the hon. member for Burin—St. George's.
I will conclude by saying that there will be many opportunities also in Kyoto. Certainly within my community of Haldimand—Norfolk—Brant, the farming community can look forward to us promoting within this plan ethanol, ethanol related and bio-related answers to some of the problems we have today.