Evidence of meeting #32 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 40th Parliament, 3rd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was south.
A recording is available from Parliament.
5:10 p.m.
Conservative
Dave Van Kesteren Conservative Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON
So you're expecting the U.S., possibly, to forgive the debt.
5:10 p.m.
Emeritus Professor of Economics, Simon Fraser University, As an Individual
I think the U.S. will try to use its influence in the Paris law, if it was bilateral Paris Club debt, to negotiate a Paris Club writeoff of that debt--if Khartoum cooperates. He hinted that if the U.S. couldn't do it....even though they buggered things up here and there, but any country would. I'm less persuaded than Dr. Abunafeesa that the U.S. has mangled things.
5:10 p.m.
Conservative
Dave Van Kesteren Conservative Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON
Are there steps being taken now to prepare for governance?
5:10 p.m.
Emeritus Professor of Economics, Simon Fraser University, As an Individual
Yes, absolutely. That was the Deloitte/USAID-funded project that I was on. It was called core institutions in southern Sudan. Almost all of our efforts went into advising. There were only three of us in the Bank of Southern Sudan, but there were lots of other people in the other ministries, particularly the ministry of finance. So I think the U.S. has correctly realized that building that institutional capacity is important. We even had a team of people training the president and the vice-president to be good on television.
5:10 p.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Dean Allison
That's all the time we have. I'm going to move back over here to Mr. Pearson and then back to Mr. Lunney.
5:10 p.m.
Liberal
Glen Pearson Liberal London North Centre, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Mr. Simmons, I think you're uniquely positioned to maybe try to answer a couple of my questions.
I get frustrated that we get so fascinated about the geopolitics of the region and what will happen. All that is very important; I realize Canada might have some roles to play.
But I know that during the war years, when it was very difficult, part of the reason the CPA worked--and I was at the three different rounds--was that civil society had already begun to work, even when the belligerents between the north and the south were not. So you were seeing these regional peace accords happening across the border regions. You were seeing markets that were set up with Arab and Dinka, or Arab and Nuer, or Dinka and Nuer leadership, because it was of benefit to both.
One of the things we've heard in this committee is that there were women's groups from northern Sudan that were in contact with women from south Sudan, and they were trying to help bring about peace. I know this is something Ms. Deschamps is very interested in. They now feel they're being isolated. The closer it gets to the referendum and the south voting to probably leave, these people are now feeling isolated.
My question to you is this. For things like CIDA or for the Department of Foreign Affairs, we eventually get to the point where we invest big time in Juba and other places, when really these are the regions that had already worked out accommodations in spite of some of their own tribal differences, and so on and so forth. Are we wise, as a country, to try to invest on both sides of the border in those regions, by finding groups like your own that are working in those Nile areas and others, rather than just looking at Juba? Should we not be more creative in how we as a country should invest in funding the groups that initially had put skin in the game when it came to peace, long before the big two did? Could we not be funding those groups--NGOs like your own, and others--much more than we do, to help bring about certain outcomes, especially the women's groups?
5:15 p.m.
Country Director, FAR Sudan
Thank you very much.
Absolutely, I agree. I think the biggest priority we have and that Canada can play a role in is the question of the ongoing integration of border communities. The biggest outbreak of violence will be along the border, partly because it's not demarcated, partly because of oil, partly because of politics. But that's the role that we can have, how to keep those communities working together.
When you have groups of Arab tribes expelled from the upper Nile back into the north, it's only by negotiation with local leaders in those communities that those people can move back. There's not enough focus or investment in those local leaders at that level; they're the ones who have the capacity on the ground to resolve something. The political elites in Khartoum and Juba don't sufficiently represent the people everywhere to be able to negotiate at that level on their behalf. What we've seen in Darfur is exactly the same. The more you can promote village-to-village mediation of some kind, economic trading, something that means they have some reason not to kill each other in the future, the better the situation will be. That's really where I think we can most make a difference.
5:15 p.m.
Liberal
5:15 p.m.
Country Director, FAR Sudan
Can I respond on the America thing? I did want to clarify that, just very quickly.
5:15 p.m.
Country Director, FAR Sudan
Senator Danforth was very helpful in the beginning. I think the challenge was back in 2003, with Machakos. The expectation wasn't managed. As soon as it was agreed that the southern Sudanese had the right to self-determination, that was the beginning of independence.
Senator Danforth and President Carter have played very helpful roles over the years, in my view. I think the challenge has been the “lost boys”. Those sorts of people have a heavy advocacy voice--or not necessarily an advocacy voice, that's maybe too negative, but it's easy to sympathize with them from a number of different backgrounds, whether you want to sympathize with the marginalized or sympathize with the blacks or sympathize with the Christians, or however one generally, quite simplistically, wants to categorize them. It plays to those sympathies. So the expectations just haven't been managed at all in the south because of that.
5:15 p.m.
Conservative
James Lunney Conservative Nanaimo—Alberni, BC
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair, and I apologize for being a little late for the meeting. It was unavoidable.
I regret missing the earlier part of your presentation, so I hope my question isn't redundant.
Coming in a little late on this discussion, I appreciate the expertise of the people at the table here, and I believe you've cast some very interesting perspectives on what is a very puzzling situation to some of us trying to get our heads around the realities on the ground in Sudan.
I've been trying to deal with how this referendum can actually take place when we don't know how many people are involved, registration isn't complete, there hasn't been education. We summarized the challenges very effectively a few moments ago.
I think I'm hearing a consensus from the end of the table that there's an attitude of inevitability that the south will separate; the expectations are high that, whatever happens with the referendum.... My concern is that if there isn't a sense of legitimacy to a vote, how are we going to avoid descending right back into conflict if the results of a questionable process are not accepted?
I seem to hear a future being proposed that perhaps Canada will have a role to play in helping the two sides afterward, regardless of what happens, as the new realities emerge of two neighbouring states. Canada may have a mentoring role in trying to help the two sides develop relations and develop capacity and live in harmony.
Is that a summary of what your expectations are, that with all of these insurmountable problems in having a legitimate referendum, the result may be a new reality that's going to emerge, and that we should be looking beyond that to how we move to the next steps?
5:20 p.m.
Country Director, FAR Sudan
Yes, that would be my view.
I think we have to accept the inevitability of independence of some sort. The south pretty much already has independence anyway, so not all that much will change on the ground, I don't think, except for people's perceptions. A lot of this is very emotional.
Even when we were asking southerners about their desire to return, 86% of southerners who we interviewed in the north--and that's 22,500 people, families--said of course, they'd love to return, but only 15% of them said they had the means to do so. There's always this emotional reaction, and then the reality is sometimes different. The reaction now in the buildup is very emotional. There are a lot of mixed messages, a lot of confused signals.
When we actually get there, I think we'll find that as long as the north is able to continue to access the oil fields and the south feels it's getting the benefit of those oil fields, and there are citizenship arrangements or some kind of pre-citizenship nationality thing, probably they'll work it out. But they haven't really worked out how they're going to live together afterwards, and I think you're right, that's where the future will be.
5:20 p.m.
Conservative
5:20 p.m.
Senior Political Officer (Retired), United Nations Mission in the Sudan
Yes, thank you.
There is a role to be played for Canada, but that has to be post-independence.
By the way, quite a number of southerners were educated in Sudan and there are thousands of them. They speak the Arabic language very well indeed. If you speak to them and see them, you will think they are northerners because of the cultural understanding they have, and the relationship between them and between those who are educated and their peers in the north. There is a lot of common experience in the past, where there was war or no war.
With regard to the relationship between the two states in the future, there is a positive role to be played, not a political one only but also a developmental one. The most important thing is to look to the future stability of the south before we look at the north. In the south there is a problem, although later in the conference in Juba they came together. Dr. Lam Akol, the spearhead of the conflict with Salva Kiir, came to the conference and there was a communiqué saying that now they agreed on a consensus for government, and so on.
So there is a need for stabilization in the south, domestically because of the tribal conflicts and tribal rivalry between the three important and major tribes: Dinka, Nuer, and Shilluk. Each one has its aspirations, and so on. Even the minority tribes fear the domination of the Dinka. The Dinka are the most rich and they are in large numbers. They are also warriors. So there is a fear among the minority tribes in the south with regard to domination. There has to be some kind of involvement for countries that could be trusted to build peace and have development play a role.
Democracy is important in the northern part of Sudan. If any country or international community plays a role to have democratization in both countries, including peace and stability, I think the future of both countries will be good because the resources are there. What is lacking and what's feared is the instability between the two countries.
There is an idea for the future. Because of the relationship of hundreds of years between the south and north, apart from the maltreatment or anything like that—that is something for the historical record—a dual citizenship for the people of the two countries could also play a good role. There is a chance for that if things go smoothly.
I think there are ways to do things. I think Canada could do something in that discussion, but Canada needs to get the people there who would be able to do that job. That's also another thing. The instruments are more important than the objectives and ideas, and so on.
5:25 p.m.
Country Director, FAR Sudan
I wanted to make sure we had spoken about South Kordofan and Blue Nile, about the transitional areas, because we've hardly touched on that at all today.
I think it relates very closely, as well, to what you were saying about integration, because there you do have populations geographically inside northern Sudan politically supportive of the south. They need to be integrated. The presidential election didn't take place in South Kordofan or Blue Nile. They still have, before January, to have a presidential election, a popular consultation, a referendum registration, and a referendum. It's a pretty implausible timetable.
It's certainly an area we need to be focusing very heavily on, because there's a big potential for violence, but there is also a big potential for integration, because you do have those communities existing already in Blue Nile so far in relative stability. So if they can be models for how the south and the north would cooperate with each other after the referendum, I think that would be very positive.
5:25 p.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Dean Allison
I just want to take a second to thank our witnesses. I think each of you, on your own, we could have spent two or three hours with.
I thank you for working within our time constraints. You are great witnesses and that was a great dialogue we had today.
Thank you very much.
With that, the meeting is adjourned.