Canada-China Relations Committee on Oct. 4th, 2022

[Heather McPherson, NDP, Edmonton Strathcona, AB]

I think it shows a commitment to that relationship and not having an ambassador in place shows a lack of commitment to that relationship certainly.

Another area I'm quite concerned with is we have seen the increase in China playing the [Inaudible] development in Sub-Saharan, Africa. At the same time, we have seen a reduction in Canada's investment in involvement in Sub-Saharan Africa whether that's through peacekeeping, whether that's through international development, whether that's through diplomatic ties.

Could you speak on what the impacts or the risks are to Canada and to the global stability, I guess, when you see situations like the increase of China in Sub-Saharan, Africa at the same time that Canada is decreasing its efforts there.

[Gordon Houlden]

At a time in my long past, I worked on Africa for what is now Global Affairs and I've been to Africa. I follow very closely, looking at it from a China lens. Chinese are all over Africa. They're the number one trading partner for most African states.

Africans will tell you, however, that it's not as if the colonial powers covered themselves with glory in their work in Africa. Africans are often a bit uneasy with that experience.

Canada comes in with an advantage. We had no colonial experience in Africa. We're seen as a good partner, but it takes a lot of time and senior-level attention. It takes development funding and it takes active commercial relationships. We will not be able to play a role as high-profile as that of China, but we can play our part. If we don't do that, we just leave the field free for the Chinese and for other non-democratic actors who don't necessarily share our values.

Absolutely we need to be there with spurs on to make sure that we're at least noticed and that we can play a role, but not exaggerating the potential for us.

[Heather McPherson, NDP, Edmonton Strathcona, AB]

Thank you very much.

Dr. Ong, did you have anything you would like to add to that as well?

[Dr. Lynette Ong]

No.

[Heather McPherson, NDP, Edmonton Strathcona, AB]

Thank you.

Ms. Calverley, first of all, I want to reassure you that this committee has agreed to do a study looking at investment that will, hopefully, be undertaken soon. Hopefully, we will be able to bring you back at that point.

You did talk a bit during your testimony about threats to Canadians and foreign influence. I would be interested in hearing your perspective on the news that we have heard about the police stations that have opened up. What do you expect from the Canadian government as a response?

[Aileen Calverley]

It is very shocking news. Actually, there are quite a few that have opened up in Ontario and one in Markham where I lived.

The Chinese agents have been around, but I think openly. That it's actually the Chinese police, I think this really the first time we've heard that. I think they are openly doing that because there's no legislation. There's nothing to deter them, nothing to punish them.

I think that Canada should have some new legislation. As police from China, they should be agents or government officials. They cannot just open offices in Canada.

They claim that they just help Chinese citizens to renew their passports. They don't need that because they have their own embassy. They have used that to intimidate Chinese citizens in the past to scare them to go back to China to face trial, and then they threaten their families. Now I think, with the police station in Markham, they can intimidate people like us. I have been living in Canada for many decades. Now I feel frightened. I need to install a camera in my house.

I think the Canadian government needs to really look into this because they are Chinese police. They should be considered as agents. There should be legislation that says they need to inform the Canadian government that they are agents.

[Heather McPherson, NDP, Edmonton Strathcona, AB]

I'm very sorry that you feel so threatened in this country.

[Aileen Calverley]

Yes, I do.

[Heather McPherson, NDP, Edmonton Strathcona, AB]

That is horrific.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken Hardie]

Ms. McPherson, you are way over time.

[Gordon Houlden]

Mr. Chong, go ahead for five minutes.

[Michael Chong, Conservative, Wellington—Halton Hills, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

This question is for all three of you.

In the latter part of 2019, the government announced that it would be coming forward with a new framework on China. We know that we still don't have one. It's now morphed into the Indo-Pacific strategy that Minister Joly has indicated will be released at the end of this year, some time before Christmas.

My simple question to all three of you is this: Have you been consulted by the government on the Indo-Pacific strategy?

[Gordon Houlden]

From Gordon Houlden, the answer would be no.

[Michael Chong, Conservative, Wellington—Halton Hills, ON]

Thank you for that. I appreciate that.

Dr. Ong…?

[Dr. Lynette Ong]

Yes, there has been wonderful virtual round table consultation with, I think, someone from Global Affairs.

The short answer is yes.

[Michael Chong, Conservative, Wellington—Halton Hills, ON]

Thank you.

Ms. Calverley…?

[Aileen Calverley]

It was not consultation, but we did talk about it.

[Michael Chong, Conservative, Wellington—Halton Hills, ON]

The reason I raised it is that I took note of Dr. Ong's opening statement. I thought it was quite good the way you framed the fact that China is structurally changing. You talked about the changes amongst the elites, the changes amongst the non-elites and then some of the economic challenges they're facing.

One of the things I picked up in your advice to this committee was that, in response to a rapidly changing China, the Canadian government needed to be effective in scenario playing. I'm wondering if you can elaborate on that.

My sense of the government is that it's not very good, not very nimble, at scenario playing. We've been trying to come up with this China policy, this Indo-Pacific strategy, now for some three years. We are the only G7 power that doesn't have a written foreign policy document that you can point to on the Indo-Pacific region, and it seems very painful even to come up with that basic blueprint.

From your knowledge, Dr. Ong, of how Global Affairs works, where are the deficiencies in the department that are preventing us from being more nimble in producing these documents and ensuring that they're regularly updated to respond to the various scenarios that might unfold?

[Dr. Lynette Ong]

Yes, that is a great question.

In my view, the constant in the very near future, the constant in dealing with China, is uncertainty. That is the only thing that we can be certain of.

I think both politics and economics are going through some very structural and fundamental changes. It could go bad very quickly, or it could just gradually decline. No one can be certain of that.

In a sense, we need to have really strong China endowment, and I know a little bit about Global Affairs. I don't know Global Affairs well enough to say whether or not they have the capacity to amass China resources, people who really know elite politics, people who really know society and people who really know the Chinese economy and formulations to be able to be nimble and to enable Canada to have the adaptive capacity should things turn around very quickly, which I think they will.

[Michael Chong, Conservative, Wellington—Halton Hills, ON]

Thank you for that answer. I appreciate it.

I want to switch to a slightly different topic, which has to do with foreign direct investment into Canada from China and foreign direct investment into China from Canada, the two-way FDI between our two countries.

The reason I want to bring this up quickly is that I know, Dr. Houlden, your institute at the University of Alberta has done research on this. I took note that tens of billions of dollars have come from China into Canada over the last few decades.

I think of what would happen if China ever invaded Taiwan. I think we would see a commensurate response by western allies in terms of sanctions as we've seen with respect to Russia. Because our exposure to two-way trade and investment to China is much greater than that of Russia, I'm wondering what the implications are for Canada if that were ever to happen.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken Hardie]

We should get a brief answer, Professor Houlden.

[Gordon Houlden]

The China Institute has the most comprehensive database of Chinese investment in this country.

You asked a question about if there were a conflict over Taiwan, a vulnerable southern ally. The investment, in my view, would be the smaller part. The biggest effect would be the disruption of supply chains. Look at what happened in Russia and how that has affected the energy sector. A sustained disruption of the economic relationship between China and the west would have far greater effect. As soon as those ships that were en route landed or were turned back, you would see empty stores. You would see absolutely essential inputs to Canadian businesses and to Canadian lives disrupted. We're highly vulnerable to the effects of that trade being disrupted—investment, yes, but especially the trade flows.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken Hardie]

Thank you for that.

[Gordon Houlden]

Now we go to Mr. Fragistakos for five minutes.

[Peter Fragistakos]

Thank you, Chair.

Thank you to our witnesses.

Professor Ong, I was especially taken by your testimony, which at the outset was really about this point on regime durability. You talked about spoils. You talked about fear. You talked about—in response to Ms. Yip's question—the way the regime has dealt with the middle class, the reduction of the role of the private sector and these kinds of things.

The question is a straightforward one. I take the point on certainty that you raised before, but I think it would benefit the committee if you were to share with us your view on just how durable this regime is. From the outside it looks quite stable, but is it quite stable?