Canada-China Relations Committee on Nov. 1st, 2022

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken Hardie]

Sir, I really appreciate your attendance tonight, as do our committee members.

Mr. Ping, Mr. Tseng and Mr. Chen, thank you again for being here with us tonight.

Go ahead, Mr. Bergeron.

[Stéphane Bergeron, Bloc, Montarville, QC]

Mr. Chair, I was wondering if there would be unanimous consent from the members of the committee to take a photograph with the Taiwanese representatives.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken Hardie]

We will take a break while we get the next panel set up, so I believe that will provide an opportunity, if you wish.

We'll break—

[Heather McPherson, NDP, Edmonton Strathcona, AB]

Can you include those of us who are on screen?

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken Hardie]

Maybe we can pose in front of the screen, Ms. McPherson. I don't know, but we'll do our best with who we have here.

We will now take a break.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken Hardie]

We're back for our second panel.

I'm pleased to welcome Scott Simon, professor at the University of Ottawa and senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

For this round, committee members, we will do more of the standard: six minutes each for the first round and, in the second round, five minutes for the Liberals, five minutes for the Conservatives and two and half minutes each for the Bloc and the NDP, after which we will break and then go into a brief committee business session.

We would like to welcome you, sir. Is it Mr. Simon or Dr. Simon?

[Dr. Scott Simon, Professor, University of Ottawa and Senior Fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, As an Individual]

It's Dr. Simon.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken Hardie]

Dr. Simon, thank you for being here in person. That does eliminate problems with some of the technical challenges we've had. We appreciate you being with us this evening.

We'd like you to take five minutes and give your opening statement.

[Dr. Scott Simon]

Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.

I'm the coholder of the chair of Taiwan studies at the University of Ottawa. I've lived in Taiwan for over 10 years, which has included five years of research in indigenous communities, where people are very grateful for 150 years of Canada-Taiwan relations that brought them Presbyterian and Catholic missions.

The so-called Taiwan issue began with the postwar disposition of Japanese territories in the 1951 San Francisco peace treaty, when Japan declared the end of war and renounced all claims to Taiwan without specifying a recipient. At the time, foreign minister Lester Pearson said, “I hope possibly in that eventual solution some people who are overlooked in this matter, I mean the people of Formosa themselves, might be given some consideration.”

In a way, democratization means that the Taiwanese people now exercise self-determination in every single election. Although the Republic of China brought an authoritarian state to Taiwan, democratization eventually allowed the Taiwanese to remake it in their own image. Taiwan is now a leader in such areas as LGBT rights and indigenous rights, yet Chinese threats to invade and annex the island country prevent them from living free of fear. This is already a human rights issue. When China coerces Canada to marginalize Taiwan, it is also a violation of our sovereignty.

Canadians often self-censor when it comes to Taiwan, but when we recognized the PRC in 1970 as the sole government of China, the government of Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau kept our options open with an agreement to neither endorse nor challenge the Chinese government's position on the status of Taiwan. We therefore need to avoid even the appearance of endorsing China's claim over Taiwan, even in little things like the drop-down menus on some government websites.

As a trading nation, Canada's first interest is a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific. I think we have already covered the security and defence issues and the FIPA, the CPTPP and the international organizations, but I would like to say that the Indo-Pacific is also inclusive and sustainable.

One of the areas we have in common with Taiwan is indigenous issues. I just spent the last two days with a delegation from the Taipei indigenous affairs bureau. Also, this year we signed an agreement called IPETCA with Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand, so there are things going on there, and we once had an MOU with Taiwan on indigenous affairs.

It is also a global good that some countries still have relations with Taiwan as the Republic of China. We can reinforce the peaceful status quo by co-operating with Taiwan on joint projects in such countries. Some of them might seem far away to most Canadians, such as Palau, but others, such as Haiti, are very important to us and also need our help. We can help with Taiwan. We could, for example, create joint projects with Taiwan in development assistance or even in military or coast guard co-operation like peacekeeping, disaster relief and search and rescue operations.

Canada's policy is to neither challenge nor endorse China's claims to Taiwan. We cannot endorse them because they are political goals rather than descriptions of reality on the ground. We chose not to challenge because silence was needed to establish diplomatic relations with China, but that decision was based on assumptions that China and Taiwan would seek a peaceful resolution. Now, as one side gets increasingly aggressive, we need to emphasize that we do not endorse China's coercion. We may someday consider legislation like the Taiwan Relations Act of the U.S. to provide guidance to Canadians on Canada-Taiwan relations, and I would say that even the universities need some guidance.

In a worst-case scenario, Chinese aggression could even lead us to us to formally recognize Taiwan, just as we had to do with Kosovo, despite Russian and Serbian opposition, to make sure that it's an international issue. Historically, especially during Pearson's time, we have looked at this as an international issue.

We have to do whatever we can do to prevent any conflict. I think we're doing very well by consistently making the argument that we want to keep the peaceful status quo. We have to signal to China that we are serious about keeping the peaceful status quo and that our silence about Taiwan was conditional on them refraining from aggression. Those days seem past. We also need to assure our democratic allies and partners that we stand with them—that means Japan, the U.S. and others—and that Taiwan is a shared security issue.

I think we need to work hard for peace because the alternative is unimaginable, and the costs to Canada would be very high.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken Hardie]

Thank you very much, Dr. Simon.

Before we start our first round of questioning, I believe Ms. Rempel Garner is lurking somewhere on Zoom. There she is. Good evening and welcome.

We'll go to Mr. Chong for six minutes.

[Michael Chong, Conservative, Wellington—Halton Hills, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Thank you, Dr. Simon, for appearing in front of us today.

You wrote a paper in which you said that Canada should update its Taiwan strategy. In particular, you said there could be situations in which international recognition of Taiwan would become the best strategy to deter war and that Canada should lead the way.

Do you think it's time for Canada to recognize Taiwan diplomatically? If not, then at what point before a war between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan, which seems imminent, and in what situation between now and that war, would it be appropriate for Canada to recognize Taiwan diplomatically?

[Dr. Scott Simon]

Obviously that's a very difficult question to answer. It will take a lot of discussion in Canada about that.

I hope I'm not being too hopeful. I think that it would be premature right now to do that. I think even those military exercises in August were not so threatening that we would need to do that yet.

I think there has to be some kind of a red line. We have to be prepared. We have to know what that is, and it is going to take some discussion. Would it be flights directly over the island of Taiwan, for example? Would that be sufficient?

In spite of the fact that we have relations with Ukraine and Ukraine has been in the UN for a long time, that didn't stop Russia from invading. Having that relationship would not necessarily prevent a war, but I think we would raise the costs to China of having a war if we let them know that we're serious about Taiwan and we're willing as a global community to defend Taiwan.

[Michael Chong, Conservative, Wellington—Halton Hills, ON]

Another recommendation you've made is that Parliament could enhance its role, so I assume that means you're also supportive of MPs going to Taiwan on these legislative exchanges. Is that correct?

[Dr. Scott Simon]

That's absolutely correct. We've been sending these delegations to Taiwan since the 1970s, and many, many countries send these delegations to Taiwan. They're quite routine. I think we have to continue doing that.

[Michael Chong, Conservative, Wellington—Halton Hills, ON]

Thank you for that.

What is your assessment of when China is going to invade Taiwan?

[Dr. Scott Simon]

I don't have a when. Recently the U.S. government has been saying some things. They used to say 2049. Then it was 2027. Now they're saying maybe 2023 or maybe later this year. I don't think it's really my place to try to figure out when they're going to do that.

I think what we need to do instead of trying to think about when they're going to do that is try to make sure we can keep them pushing that back as much as we can.

[Michael Chong, Conservative, Wellington—Halton Hills, ON]

I know there was a bit of disbelief when the Biden administration suggested late last year that Russia was on the verge of invading Ukraine. None of us wanted to believe that was going to happen. Unfortunately, it did happen on February 24. I take a bit more seriously now the analysis coming out of Washington about this potential. I think we as parliamentarians have a job to do to game out various potential scenarios that could be taking place.

Do you share the Taiwanese representative's view that by more closely engaging with Taiwan—both informally through legislator-to-legislator links and more formally through the negotiation of foreign investment promotion and protection agreements as well as free trade agreements—we increase the cost to Beijing of invading Taiwan?

[Dr. Scott Simon]

Basically, we're making the world that we live in with the agreements we make, so I definitely agree with him about having closer relations with Taiwan all across the board—with FIPAs, with people-to-people relations, with relations between universities in Taiwan and other universities and even with the work of the Presbyterian church in Taiwan or the United Church of Canada. All of these things are really important for our ties. They're important for really influencing the role that Taiwan plays in the world and for making sure that it's stronger. That's good for democracy.

[Michael Chong, Conservative, Wellington—Halton Hills, ON]

One thing you've stated in the past is that Canada has long assumed, as have other democracies, that Beijing's participation in international affairs has fostered peace. Increasingly it is clear, though, that the People's Republic of China is willing to use military force and military coercion even against Canada in order to get its way.

Do you think the Canadian government should be more explicit with Beijing about this problem? In other words, should our government be saying to Beijing more directly that the assumptions we long held about them being a peaceful actor in the world are quickly eroding and therefore we are going to reset our policy in the Indo-Pacific region based on that new reality?

[Dr. Scott Simon]

I think Canada was instrumental in getting China into the United Nations system. A big part of that was the argument that excluding them from things is a threat to world peace. We brought them into it with the assumption that having them join the world system would lead to world peace and there would be a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan Strait issues.

That's clearly not happening. It's not just because of the threats against Taiwan. It's not just because of the threats against Canada, which are happening. It's also the genocide that's happening in Xinjiang and the threats against India and Japan.

I think we have to make it very clear to China that any of their aggression is of serious and grave concern to Canada. I think we have to be educating Canadians about that as well.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken Hardie]

Thank you, Dr. Simon and Mr. Chong.

Now we'll go to Mr. Oliphant for six minutes.

[Rob Oliphant, Liberal, Don Valley West, ON]

Thank you, Chair.

Thank you, Dr. Simon, for being here with us tonight.

You said in your remarks—and I think you're correct in your understanding—that “Canada's first interest is a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific.” I think that would be our goal. You also talked about ways to “reinforce”—or perhaps re-establish, unfortunately—“the peaceful status quo”. That goal is in your remarks and is the Canadian goal as well.

A recent witness at our committee, David Wright from the University of Calgary, said, “[S]ome of the steps that democratic countries”—and I would add some opposition party members—“wish to take towards protecting Taiwan's democracy may in fact achieve just the opposite result.” He added, “Maybe doing the right thing is more a matter of not doing the wrong thing.”

I want you to work with me a bit on that because we've had this system where we've attempted to neither endorse nor challenge the People's Republic of China's attitudes or actions with respect to Taiwan. They're pushing us. Some people have a response to push back. I worry at times that this could cause more danger for the people of Taiwan. Finding that balance of pushing without endangering would be my goal.

Could you help me a bit with that?

[Dr. Scott Simon]

I think this conversation has been going on for a while. What often gets overlooked is that we have decided.... Actually, when the secretary for external affairs Mitchell Sharp negotiated with China, the Chinese agreed to this framework of neither endorsing nor challenging.

Sometimes I think we don't have to always do it publicly, but we have to remind the Chinese that we don't endorse their claims over Taiwan. We have never accepted their claim. We took note, but we never accepted it.

When it comes to concrete steps, some things could be overly provocative, but frankly, I think Canada should be less concerned about that than the United States, for example. China tends to perceive the United States as being an enemy country in many ways. Canada is not really the same threat to China, so I think there are a lot of things we could do that the Americans can't do and I think we should be exploring that.

[Rob Oliphant, Liberal, Don Valley West, ON]

We're talking about the recognition of Taiwan in international fora as being important. That does push back, but we have been strong about encouraging their participation in places where they can add value. We keep strengthening trading relationships and people-to-people ties. I am very open to understanding more about where else we could push without slamming the people of Taiwan because we have an ego need there.

I would echo Mr. Pearson's comment about the people of Formosa. They're the ones who need to be engaged on this question. It's about the people of Taiwan. I don't want to hurt them. I want to push, but not hurt. How do we do that?

[Dr. Scott Simon]

I think the way we do that is by engaging them wherever we can, and often by working on things where we have values in common—on the indigenous issues, for example. Both countries have same-sex marriage and LGBT rights. There's a woman president and there's a high percentage of women legislators, so on feminist issues, our feminist foreign policy should have something there. There are some things on sustainable development too.

Maybe this could be about working with Taiwan on some of their development projects in other countries, such as in Haiti or Oceania, and reinforcing them in ways that are below the radar screen for China, in many ways, but that are still helpful.