Evidence of meeting #8 for Canada-China Relations in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was arctic.
A video is available from Parliament.
8:20 p.m.
Conservative
Michael Chong Conservative Wellington—Halton Hills, ON
Thank you.
I have just a couple of quick follow-up questions.
Is China developing the same kind of submarine autonomous capabilities that Russia has already developed?
8:20 p.m.
Associate Professor, University of Calgary, As an Individual
We haven't seen any sign of it. If we go to the open literature, Janes and the usual sort of information we get, we haven't seen that, but this doesn't necessarily mean that they haven't done it. Something like this can be developed very secretively.
Most of you will be aware, of course, that at one of the Chinese bases the submarines don't surface. There is a tunnel into the island where it's based. If they're developing this capability, they could have developed it without our knowing, and that's indeed a possibility.
8:20 p.m.
Conservative
Michael Chong Conservative Wellington—Halton Hills, ON
I would note that in your earlier comments, Professor, you indicated that China has a larger navy in terms of the number of ships it has vis-à-vis the U.S. Navy. I would also note that the U.S. is a larger navy in terms of its overall tonnage compared to the navy of the People's Republic of China. I think that's an important thing for the committee to take note of as well.
Professor, what is your view on what the U.S. response would be in the event that Taiwan is attacked? Do you think it would be primarily a military response, a kinetic response, or do you think it would be primarily a response of economic sanctions and other sanctions that we've seen with Russia? If it's the latter, how do you believe that would affect Canadian trade and investment?
8:20 p.m.
Associate Professor, University of Calgary, As an Individual
Absolutely.
I think it would be a kinetic response. If the Americans do not respond with kinetic responses to a Chinese invasion, basically they are handing the Indo-Pacific region to China at that point in time.
There will be economics, and it would be completely disruptive to Canadians in ways that I don't think many people would understand. Few Canadians understand how much coal we now sell to the Chinese. It's our number one export. There is no way of getting that to China in a war zone, so basically B.C. would suffer very directly. The Walmarts would suffer. As with the supply chain, it would presumably catch everybody by surprise, but it shouldn't.
8:20 p.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ken Hardie
Thank you very much.
Now we will go to Mr. Iacono for five minutes or less.
8:20 p.m.
Liberal
Angelo Iacono Liberal Alfred-Pellan, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
My question is for Mr. Lu.
On my recent visit to Taiwan, the members of our delegation had some enlightening conversations with the Taiwanese parliamentarians. As well, on our numerous visits to sites and businesses, we were able to discuss the subject of best practices in numerous fields. The know-how of the Taiwanese and the scientific and technological expertise they have can certainly be an advantage.
Through agreements with our partners, such as Italy and France, student exchanges and youth mobility broaden these young people's minds, stimulate knowledge sharing, and sometimes meet workforce needs and the need for expertise.
How can we develop this type of collaboration between Canada and Taiwan so that both our governments can benefit from it?
8:25 p.m.
Professor and Chair, Department of Diplomacy, National Chengchi University, As an Individual
Sure. Thank you for your wonderful observation. It is quite important for Taiwan to continue to forge friendships with other countries around the world, and Canada of course is one of these very significant and important countries with which we should further develop our friendship.
In the past few years, Taiwan, especially Taiwanese society, has been very open and resilient. We welcome all talents from around the world and we are willing to exchange our experiences and knowledge about these high technologies and even education. Right now in terms of bilateral relationships, Canada has invested a lot in education, and Taiwan has also benefited from these kinds of programs and arrangements.
I think in the future both countries, both governments, should continue to develop and further these kinds of collaborations. For example, in the past few months, the Fulbright program in the United States has invested heavily in these kinds of exchange programs. In the years to come, I do hope to see that both Taiwan and Canada can invest more in these exchange programs.
Thank you.
8:25 p.m.
Liberal
Angelo Iacono Liberal Alfred-Pellan, QC
Thank you, Dr. Lu.
Taiwan is a solid trading partner of Canada and a major player in the global supply chain, as we have witnessed in the past two years with the supply of chips that are critical to our technological market. Moreover, Taiwan embraces free and open markets, making it an ideal port of business with the Asia-Pacific region for our Canadian companies. We have had the pleasure, for example, of visiting a Canadian windmill company in Taiwan and hearing from their CEO about the opportunities they had developing in Taiwan.
How can we further develop the economic ties we have with Taiwan, and what arguments could be made in support of their joining the CPTPP?
8:25 p.m.
Professor and Chair, Department of Diplomacy, National Chengchi University, As an Individual
It is quite important. As I mentioned briefly in my statement, the avoidance of double taxation, this kind of arrangement, is quite important, and now Taiwan is looking for an opportunity to develop a foreign investment promotion and protection arrangement with Canada. If this can be considered positively in the months to come, I think that would be very welcomed and appreciated by Taiwan.
With respect to other arrangements, I think there is also, for example, the CPTPP, and right now China and Taiwan already submitted our bids separately for that. In the past few weeks, some countries have expressed certain kinds of concerns about Taiwan's bid, but I do hope that Taiwan, as a strong and open market and a liberal economy, can be included in this arrangement. It is very important. After that, if Taiwan can be admitted, Taiwan can contribute more and we can all benefit from Taiwan's inclusion in the CPTPP.
Thank you.
8:25 p.m.
Liberal
8:25 p.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ken Hardie
You have 20 seconds, sir. I think you're really out of time for all intents and purposes.
8:25 p.m.
Liberal
Angelo Iacono Liberal Alfred-Pellan, QC
I'm sorry, Professor Huebert. The next question was going to be for you.
8:25 p.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ken Hardie
Thank you, Mr. Iacono.
We'll now go to Mr. Bergeron for two and a half minutes.
8:25 p.m.
Bloc
Stéphane Bergeron Bloc Montarville, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Mr. Huebert, I would like to come back to the question you were asked by Mr. Chong at the very end when he asked you this: what credence must be given to the statement by the President of the United States, who said, in answer to a question about the statements he had made earlier in this regard, that he was prepared, when that had not been the case for Ukraine, to send American soldiers in the event of an invasion of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China?
8:25 p.m.
Associate Professor, University of Calgary, As an Individual
We have to take it very seriously, and this is one thing, of course, that historians in the U.S. always remind us. The issue of who lost China is a driving feature in American politics, and that goes back to 1949. It doesn't matter if it's Democrats or Republicans; you can't be seen as surrendering to China. That is sort of the third rail for any American president, and, as I said, we have seen this historically. It doesn't matter what party you're with; you have to be there for Taiwan. I think the type of forced disposition that the Americas have made in terms of responding to the Chinese buildup is clear.
Just to go back to Mr. Chong's point that the American tonnage is bigger, the American tonnage is also much more capable at the same time. They've responded directly with the means of responding to an amphibious assault. That is the type of dispositions they have, and that's what you have to look at, which means they're going to use it if they have to, because politically it's suicide for Biden not to. It would be suicide for any Republican not to.
8:30 p.m.
Bloc
Stéphane Bergeron Bloc Montarville, QC
Very quickly, I would like to ask Mr. Lu a question.
You referred to the fact that Taiwan was in a situation of de facto sovereignty.
Is the loss of countries that recognize the People's Republic of China a problem in the long term? Is the diplomatic network built up by Taiwan, regardless of what countries recognize it, succeeding in making up for that in some way?
8:30 p.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ken Hardie
Again, please give us a very short answer, if you can, Dr. Lu.
Thank you.
8:30 p.m.
Professor and Chair, Department of Diplomacy, National Chengchi University, As an Individual
Yes. Thank you for this question.
It is quite important for Taiwan to maintain a number of diplomatic allies in the world, because doing so is highly related to our self-identification as a sovereign state.
In the past few years, especially when China has squeezed Taiwan's diplomatic allies and asked them to change their recognition, this has not been good for Taiwan. As long as we have diplomatic allies, we can tell ourselves and also the world that Taiwan is a sovereign state. Under the United Nations, we can see that our diplomatic allies, from time to time, including Canada and ICAO, also express their support for Taiwan. This is very important. For our international participation, at this moment I think it is complementary to our presence in the international community, but in the long run, I think these two things are not mutually exclusive. They are both important to Taiwan's diplomatic survival in the world.
I do hope that Canada and our friends around the world can continue to support Taiwan in the international community.
Thank you.
8:30 p.m.
Liberal
8:30 p.m.
NDP
Heather McPherson NDP Edmonton Strathcona, AB
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Again, thank you to the witnesses.
Dr. Huebert, you were speaking about the relationship between China and Russia and how at the moment it is beneficial to them to have that relationship. I think you discussed with Mr. Oliphant where they were aligned and where there were differences. From my understanding, you're saying that the relationship will stay intact as long as it is beneficial to China and that the relationship will end when that is no longer the case. What are the triggers for that? Could you talk a little bit about that, please?
8:30 p.m.
Associate Professor, University of Calgary, As an Individual
Yes.
There are three triggers.
The immediate trigger, as I said earlier, would be a collapse of Russia. If this war turns out to be exhausting and the Russian state—and that means the Putin administration—collapses and there's a vacuum, there will be nothing that moves in to fill it. That would be one trigger for China to immediately respond, because that would become a threat on their border.
In the longer term, the trigger will be, of course, when they are satisfied that they have become the dominant power. In other words, at this point they know that they are still secondary to the Americans. They are making all the necessary efforts to try to match them in military capabilities. When they get to the point where they feel that they are able to actually challenge the Americans as a full equal, that will be the other trigger in terms of being able to pursue the correction of the unfair treaties, a century of humiliation and going after the territory of Russia.
The other long-term trigger is what's going to happen to population growth on the Chinese-Russian border in the Siberian area. We know that in the Arctic region, the Russian area is being depopulated. The people are moving away just because of the difficulties. The Chinese population may not be controllable in terms of keeping them out of that region, and that could very well start to become a trigger that I don't think the Chinese government may have complete control over in that regard.
The last trigger, of course, will be what happens to the American state. We haven't talked about it, but as we watch the political struggles that are now occurring within the United States, unfortunately, the reality is that the United States could face a major domestic political crisis that could severely weaken it as the leader of the free world. If that were to happen, let's say, just theoretically speaking, due to a candidate for the presidency not accepting the rule of law and due process.... I say that half mockingly, but the reality is that we're seeing that this is a very real possibility. A collapse of America as the world leader into isolationism would also be a trigger.
8:35 p.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ken Hardie
With that, we'll all go home and hide under the bed for a while.
I want to thank Dr. Huebert and Dr. Lu.
Dr. Lu, it's now mid-morning for you, according to my calculations. Thank you for getting up a little early to join us.
Dr. Huebert, thank you for joining us from Calgary today. We appreciate it. I hope it's not snowing and not too cold for you.
8:35 p.m.
Associate Professor, University of Calgary, As an Individual
We're getting a chinook right now.
8:35 p.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ken Hardie
There you go. Good for you.
All right. Thank you both.
We will now suspend briefly. Committee members online, you will have to log off and log back in for our short—we hope—in camera session to talk about a study report.
Thank you. We'll suspend.
[Proceedings continue in camera]