Evidence of meeting #119 for Environment and Sustainable Development in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was habitat.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Full Professor of Animal Ecology, Université du Québec à Rimouski, As an Individual
Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
Depending on the herd, yes. My research shows that a co‑ordinated effort involving active and passive restoration, along with interim measures, makes this possible.
September 16th, 2024 / 11:55 a.m.
Conservative
Richard Martel Conservative Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, QC
How can this be achieved in Val‑d'Or, Charlevoix and the Pipmuacan reservoir?
Full Professor of Animal Ecology, Université du Québec à Rimouski, As an Individual
Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
This can be achieved by creating protected areas or by consolidating existing ones; by active habitat restoration efforts on the periphery to reconnect certain beneficial areas; and then by taking a forestry approach that involves less canopy opening than the approach used for cutting with protection of regeneration and soils. My published work shows this, Mr. Martel.
Conservative
Richard Martel Conservative Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, QC
Quebec's chief forester has done disturbance rate projections far into the future. In the Charlevoix range, for example, even in non‑harvest scenarios, if we closed off access to roads and never took into account potential new natural disturbances like forest fires and spruce budworm infestations, in 50 years' time, at best we would achieve a 50% disturbance rate.
What solution do you suggest for this?
Full Professor of Animal Ecology, Université du Québec à Rimouski, As an Individual
Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
I haven't looked at the document you're referring to, but the studies I've done on a number of sectors, such as Eeyou Istchee and the Pipmuacan reservoir, show that we can achieve a lower disturbance rate than that through a relatively ambitious approach to road closure.
If I can consult the study by Quebec's chief forester, I can consider his methods, but I can't comment if I haven't read it.
Conservative
Richard Martel Conservative Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, QC
You say there's been a decline. In my opinion, at least two measures need to show a negative gap to reach that conclusion. I imagine you have the same definition.
Full Professor of Animal Ecology, Université du Québec à Rimouski, As an Individual
Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
We will specify our definition, but to conclude that a caribou population is in decline, if we exclude emigration and immigration, which is the reality for a number of isolated herds like those in Val‑d'Or and Charlevoix, the birth rate has to be lower than the mortality rate. It's as simple as that.
Conservative
Richard Martel Conservative Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, QC
How many inventories in the Pipmuacan region do you have comparative data for?
Full Professor of Animal Ecology, Université du Québec à Rimouski, As an Individual
Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
I think we have two or three inventories at the most for Pipmuacan that show counts. Right now, everyone, especially the media, is fixated on counts and they're forgetting vital rates. If we compare the survival and recruitment rates of these inventories, we see that, mathematically, the figures do not add up to a stable or growing population. So unless we parachute caribou into the study area, I feel that discussing counts is not germane to your question.
Conservative
Richard Martel Conservative Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, QC
Can you assure us that if caribou habitat is not disturbed, it will not be damaged by climate change and forest fires?
Full Professor of Animal Ecology, Université du Québec à Rimouski, As an Individual
Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
Our studies indicate that climate change will have an impact on the quality of caribou habitat starting in 2070 in many of the areas we studied, but until then, the effect of human disturbance on land use generates the trophic cascade I mentioned.
I will finish my answer, if I may.
Since 1850—this was published in a serious scientific journal—the southern line of the caribou range has receded northward by 620 kilometres, of which 105 kilometres is due to climate change, and the rest is due to changes in land use patterns.
That means that if we engage in active restoration efforts, we can even extend caribou ranges to the south into climate-friendly habitats. This is important, and it's often ignored in the public debate on this issue. So it's not true that caribou are moving north 40 kilometres a decade, as we hear from some people, who don't do caribou research, by the way.
However, our work shows that we could have caribou populations in a favourable climate space, south of the line where we currently find them. In 1850, we had boreal caribou in the Maritimes, in New England and south of the St. Lawrence, all over the place. They hunted it behind Rimouski, where I'm located.
Liberal
Liberal
Shafqat Ali Liberal Brampton Centre, ON
Thank you, Chair.
Thank you to the witnesses for being here before the committee.
My question is for Mr. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent.
You just said that climate change will have an impact on habitats. What are the risks of climate change in Quebec forests? Is there a risk of worsening our problem if we do not adapt our forests to climate change?
Full Professor of Animal Ecology, Université du Québec à Rimouski, As an Individual
Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
You've asked a very legitimate question.
In all honesty, I would say that one of the problems right now is that the reference scenario is based on jobs and economic revenue from the recent past that's then pitted against protecting caribou. However, according to my research colleagues at the Centre for Forest Research, or CFR, at Natural Resources Canada, forests will clearly experience more intense fire regimes, decreased stem growth and drought episodes that will compromise growth in volume. When projections are done with that, the most recent studies on the issue show that the forest industry should be much more concerned about the impact of climate change on future forest volume and supply than the impact of protecting caribou habitat. Forests are going to change. My colleagues have made that very clear in numerous studies.
Liberal
Shafqat Ali Liberal Brampton Centre, ON
Can we reconcile the adaptation of the forests and the health of the caribou and its sustainable exploitation?
That is for Mr. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent.
Full Professor of Animal Ecology, Université du Québec à Rimouski, As an Individual
Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
My research leads me to believe so, and that's why we suggested that the governments of Quebec and Canada bring together experts from various backgrounds in a research consortium consisting of sociologists, economists, as well as indigenous nations, caribou, forest engineering and timber supply experts to try to come up with science-based solutions to the problem.
The federal government has shown that it's open to that, as has the Quebec government's wildlife sector. The Quebec government's forestry sector has refused to support such an initiative, when it's wanted so badly and would allow us to reconcile both missions.
It must be understood that the Quebec regions differ in terms of the caribou realities, the forestry realities and the socio-economic realities of the forests. You can't have a one-size-fits-all solution. It's important to find regionally tailored solutions. You can't do that if you ignore the science. That would be very counterproductive. If we had dealt with the COVID‑19 pandemic by ignoring the science, we would still be squarely in the thick of it.
Liberal
Shafqat Ali Liberal Brampton Centre, ON
What proposal would you make to the Quebec government for the future of the forests?
Full Professor of Animal Ecology, Université du Québec à Rimouski, As an Individual
Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
It would be to include the upstream impact of climate change in timber supply calculations, and to create some leeway, that is to say a reserve margin we can draw from to address increased “stochasticity” and uncertain timber supply. In addition, forest management should of course be integrated with the many other forest functions, such as carbon capture and storage and air and water purification. In addition to all that, we'll maintain wealth and wealth creation if we can, but in the meantime, we need to be concerned for the future of people who make their living from the forest.
I'm very sensitive to this reality for communities, which are often single-industry communities, but we can't do it if we deny the science available to us.
Liberal
Shafqat Ali Liberal Brampton Centre, ON
Can you tell us about your research and the state of caribou in Quebec, as well as the state of our forests?
Full Professor of Animal Ecology, Université du Québec à Rimouski, As an Individual
Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
As I told you, caribou is one of the most studied species in Canada. It is in Quebec as well. Over the past few decades, a number of research teams made up of researchers from various institutions have made phenomenal progress. We understand the link, the cascade of events between forest harvesting, caribou decision-making and increased predation. For several years now, we've also understood the solutions that are within our grasp. Connectivity and the effect of protected areas have been studied. We also looked at how we could even identify caribou that are more able to live in disturbed areas. We're continuing in that direction. We have a great deal of knowledge on the subject, as do other research teams. I myself have published nearly 100 scientific articles throughout my career. Quebec is rich in forests and in knowledge of its forests.
The Centre d'étude de la forêt is a group of scientists from various organizations in Quebec. It has the highest number of invested forest scientists in the Americas. It would be important to consult them in situations like this, both to inform the public and elected officials and to find solutions together.
The current polarization and science denial are not a solution.
Liberal
Shafqat Ali Liberal Brampton Centre, ON
If you want to add anything more, there are 15 seconds left.
Full Professor of Animal Ecology, Université du Québec à Rimouski, As an Individual
Prof. Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
I want us all to work together to find the solution. I am very sensitive to what Mr. Vachon, Mr. Cloutier, Mr. Dufour and the speakers before us have said. We can find the solution together.
Bloc
Monique Pauzé Bloc Repentigny, QC
Thank you to all the witnesses.
I love what Mr. Saint‑Laurent just said. That was the purpose of this presentation and these meetings, to find solutions together. Before getting back to the just transition, I want to make one point.
Earlier, Mr. Vachon talked about the mine. There was an extremely interesting article in Le Devoir last Friday. Rodrigue Turgeon of the Coalition pour que le Québec ait meilleure mine, said the following: “If the federal order is adopted as is, Val‑d'Or's caribou population will see its critical habitat continue to be disrupted at levels exceeding the desired conservation objectives as a result of mining operations that will be allowed to continue”.
Mr. Vachon, since you raised the issue of mines, doesn't the order have a narrower vision? Is there anything else we need to do? We're still looking for solutions.
