Thank you, Mr. Chair and members of the committee.
My name is Jeff Turner. I'm the director of mobility at Dunsky Energy and Climate Advisors.
I'll begin by providing a bit of background on my own professional experience, followed by an overview of the type of work that Dunsky does in the EV space and some specific findings from recent projects as they relate to the EV availability standards, or EVAS.
My career has been focused on transportation electrification for almost 20 years. I have degrees in mechanical engineering from McGill University, where my research involved designing prototype hybrid and electric vehicles and modelling battery performance in cold climates. I've worked for two different vehicle manufacturers—one selling EVs in London and another based in Vancouver, B.C., developing hybrid and electric commercial vehicles in partnership with Ford Motor Company.
Following this, I spent four years at BC Hydro's Powertech Labs, where I focused on technologies that help integrate EVs into the grid and deploying public charging infrastructure.
In 2017, I joined Dunsky, which is a Canadian firm with over 65 professionals focused on analysis and strategy development to support the energy transition. Since then, we've conducted projects with governments, utilities and corporations in all 10 provinces, as well as leading states like California, Colorado and Massachusetts to help them to understand and design policies to overcome barriers to the adoption of EVs, anticipate the pace of adoption and associated demand on the grid, and develop policies for effective deployment of charging infrastructure.
Here in Ottawa, our name is often associated with reports we've published on EV availability in dealerships for Transport Canada or on charging infrastructure forecasts and fleet electrification for Enercan. We've also developed load forecasts for 15 Canadian electric utilities across eight provinces, as well as EV analysis and strategies for 22 Canadian cities from Halifax to Victoria, Toronto to Calgary and many in between.
This is not to mention our work with provincial governments of all stripes, including B.C., Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, P.E.I. and Nova Scotia.
Through these projects, we gain a deep understanding of how EVs are working in these regions, what specific barriers are holding consumers back and how these barriers are evolving over time. This has given us the chance to continually refine our analysis and, in particular, our EV adoption forecasting model, which we first launched in 2018. We recently had the opportunity to put this model to use developing forecasts for EV adoption in each province and territory as part of the Powering Up project with Electric Mobility Canada. We forecasted EV adoption under a range of policy scenarios and quantified the associated electrical load growth in each region.
Over the past two months, we've been able to revisit this analysis and focus in specifically on the impact of EVAS and explore a few alternate policy scenarios, all while accounting for the disruptions we've observed in the market in 2025, including the sudden pause in financial rebates and the resulting uncertainty in the market. Our analysis found that even in the absence of supportive policies, we are likely to see the Canadian light-duty vehicle market transition to EVs, driven by ongoing technology progress that is global in nature.
We also found that policies like EVAS can significantly accelerate this transition, bringing the benefits of EVs to more Canadians sooner. These benefits include affordability—EVs save, on average, about $1,700 per year in fuel costs alone—and reductions of GHG emissions and other emissions that have significant health impacts for Canadians.
On affordability, while EVs can save their owners money over the life of the vehicle, we know that most vehicle shoppers are not like me—they don't use a spreadsheet to calculate total cost of ownership—and their primary focus is on the sticker price. Our modelling captures this dynamic and captures how adoption increases as upfront EV prices come down over time.
Our modelling highlighted that while EVAS helps by ensuring a smoother EV shopping experience, fewer months-long wait-lists, more vehicles on lots and motivated salespeople, it can also drive automakers to accelerate these EV price reductions through greater competition and economies of scale.
We also modelled a multipronged approach that includes complementary strategies to help increase EV affordability, including modest government rebates that are phased out gradually over time, helping to share the load of achieving those price points.
With the right policy mix, we found that a target of 50% EV market share is achievable by 2030, leading to an additional $30 billion of fuel savings and $4 billion in health benefits, thanks to improved air quality in Canadian cities.
Finally, across all our work, we see repeatedly how valuable this type of policy is in terms of providing market certainty, especially for the utilities and private sector actors we work with, who are considering significant investments in grid capacity and charging infrastructure. We have seen first-hand how regulated targets increase confidence and solidify business cases, unlocking significant investment in Canada from valuable partners in the EV transition.
I look forward to your questions. Thank you.