Environment Committee on Nov. 20th, 2025

[Branden Leslie, Conservative, Portage—Lisgar, MB]

I've heard this a few times, that, by mandating that you have to buy a certain type of vehicle, this in fact is more choice. I think the folks who are sending me here to represent them struggle with the idea that being forced to buy a certain type of vehicle, and to do the necessary local investments in their own home for overnight charging, is in fact a better choice for them. I find it very difficult, when I get a response rate of 98%, to come here and be told that I frankly should just ignore the will of my constituents.

They ask me a lot of follow-up questions, such as, “Where are we going to get the power?” In Manitoba, for example, I believe just yesterday the NDP government there announced a new gas-powered turbine, because at the current pace of electricity use, we're not going to have enough power. We're generally proud to have such amounts of hydroelectric power. I know that other provinces are in a similar situation.

What will be the total dollar amount for utility companies that will have to generate much more power should we go to an entirely electric vehicle fleet across this country?

[Sam Hersh]

I think perhaps Mr. Turner might be better placed to respond to that specific question, but further on that point, to reiterate, the EVAS is not about forcing people to drive an electric car. It's about giving folks more choice. It's about being—

[Branden Leslie, Conservative, Portage—Lisgar, MB]

You see why that's confusing, right? It's a mandate. You're mandating that it can only be sold—

[Sam Hersh]

Well, it doesn't pertain to consumers. It pertains to dealers and the selling of electric vehicles. It doesn't pertain to consumers. It's not saying you have to buy an electric vehicle. It's saying that to dealers, but also, as I said in my remarks, it's giving them a lot of flexibility on when they have to meet that standard. There's a three-year grace period. There's a credit system. They're giving them a lot of leeway to meet that, at the same time.

[Branden Leslie, Conservative, Portage—Lisgar, MB]

The manufacturers have told the government—that's why this pause was initiated—that the demand is not there. When I talk to my local dealers, certainly the demand is not there in rural areas. That's because of the lack of infrastructure. In our last panel, we did have some good information on some of the requirements.

Again, I'd like to go back to the electricity. Ultimately, whatever that cost is—we've heard upwards of $250 billion to electrify this country enough to do that—the utility companies are not going to eat those costs. Those costs are going to be passed on. As much as we talk about how they are certainly cheaper at this point in time, that is not going to be the case.

Don't get me wrong; these vehicles are marvels of innovation. I think anybody who wants to buy one should have the option. Where the folks that I represent struggle is to be told by the government what they can and cannot buy. Yes, it's the manufacturers that are being told that they have to build them, but if people don't want to buy them, they are being forced into it.

I can look at, for instance, somebody who has bought a used beater. They're a low-income or modest-income person or are called working poor. They're working their tail off to try to support their family. They really struggle with this ivory tower government that tries to tell them what is best for them, and that it is going to save them so much money, when they can barely afford to put groceries on their table. What would you recommend I say to a low-income resident in my riding when they say to me that they don't want to buy an electric vehicle?

[Sam Hersh]

Again, that's not what the standard is saying. I think when we're talking about the cost, we should also look at the opportunity cost that's mentioned in the report by Dunsky. Again, I'm sure Mr. Turner can speak more to that.

When it comes to health care, for example, over the long term, from some modelling that we did as well, there's $90 billion in savings when it comes to health care, with 11,000 fewer premature deaths. I think there are lots more benefits to implementing this and to making sure that we reach our climate targets as well.

Again, I think a lot of people in rural Canada want to be able to afford an electric car as well. I don't think every single person in rural Canada and other ridings across the country wants to drive just gas cars. What the EVAS does is, again, give them the ability to choose. By driving up supply it lowers prices and gives people the ability to be able to afford an electric car, which I think is positive and what we need in this country.

[The Chair, Liberal, Angelo Iacono]

You have four seconds.

[Branden Leslie, Conservative, Portage—Lisgar, MB]

It's okay, Mr. Chair.

[The Chair, Liberal, Angelo Iacono]

Thank you.

Mrs. Miedema, you have the floor for six minutes.

[Shannon Miedema, Liberal, Halifax, NS]

Thank you very much.

It's nice to see you both, Mr. Turner and Mr. Hersh.

During the course of this study and in our previous one, we've talked a lot about myth-busting. I just witnessed a great example of that with my honourable colleague from the Conservative Party.

I wonder, Mr. Turner, if you would like to add to that conversation and talk a little bit about mandate versus availability standard, and what it means specifically for automakers, what it means for dealerships and what it means for the consumer.

[Jeff Turner]

Thank you, Mr. Chair. I'm happy to contribute.

I'd say, thinking about how to respond to constituents who are concerned about this policy, first of all, one of the aspects to keep in mind is the time trajectory that we're talking about here. For example, today we're not at all talking about forcing everybody to buy an EV. We're talking about a policy that would require automakers to find 20% market share of their sales somewhere in the country to be electric. So, yes, it's possible that some people are reluctant, but the chances are that if we were at 14% market share in 2024 with the right mix of policy measures in place, 20% shouldn't be too much of a stretch.

Now, the elephant in the room is that, of course, over time that target increases. I think one of the things I mentioned is that in our analysis we pay careful attention to technology evolution. I think if you go back 10 years, the EVs on the market had maybe 120, 140 kilometres of range. You could only buy cars. There were no pickups on the market. Today, we have fully electric pickup trucks with a range of over 700 kilometres. We're having debates about exactly which use cases can or cannot be supported by the current crop of EVs. We'll be seeing plug-in hybrid pickup trucks coming to market from Ram next year, which should address a lot of concerns around range anxiety and things like that.

I think that's really important to keep in mind, when we project out 10 years from now, where we think the technology is going. We also have EVs that can charge in under 20 minutes at this point. I think there's generally a lack of awareness of this progress and the various technology options that are coming to market both here in Canada and elsewhere across the world.

On the topic of grid impacts, we were the authors of the study that's often reported on in terms of the cost of upgrading our grid. We presented a range of possible outcomes, including more optimistic and more conservative scenarios. We find that, of course, the very top end of that estimate is often quoted. Our central estimate is that grid upgrades are more on the order of $90 billion, and that's for both light and heavy-duty transportation. Just for light-duty vehicles, we are talking about $45 billion by our latest estimates. Crucially, those EVs contribute over $70 billion in revenue to electric utilities because EV drivers pay for more electricity. The revenue that utilities collect from these EV drivers more than offsets the cost of the upgrades required to support them. This mirrors findings that we're seeing south of the border as well in California that find that EVs are actually a net benefit to the grid and can drive electricity costs down for all electricity consumers, whether they drive an EV or not. I think that's in parallel to significant benefits in terms of fuel savings as well.

[Shannon Miedema, Liberal, Halifax, NS]

Thank you.

Why do you think we get such strong push-back from different political perspectives and from the Canadian auto sector itself when we understand the way the world is going? We understand Canada is on fire and flooding on a regular basis. We understand that we would like to be leaders and not laggards in growing our economy. What is it at the end of the day? Is it like those private interests that are just that kind of stronghold? Can you comment on that a little bit, please?

[Jeff Turner]

I wouldn't say that our research and analysis really goes into the politics of any of this. I would say that one major factor that influences our forecasts of where this market is going is awareness and understanding of these technologies. In general, you find that consumers aren't really aware of the fact, for example, that it costs about $5 to charge up, and you can do this at home, provided you have a driveway. We do think that awareness of these solutions is part of the problem.

It is telling that there are a number of government-funded education awareness initiatives. There does seem to be a lack of this kind of information coming from the folks who make these products in many cases. I do think that that's probably one of the big pieces of the puzzle. If you ask anybody who's actually driven an EV.... I live in a rural area. My neighbour is a hunter. He's a carpenter. He drives an EV. He's very happy with that. I think there's a clear sign that folks who actually give this technology a chance find it actually really convenient and very affordable.

[Shannon Miedema, Liberal, Halifax, NS]

Thank you.

Mr. Hersh, would you quickly like to comment on things that your organization is thinking about to try to myth-bust and to provide that kind of education and awareness? There can be really strong paid-for advertising from lobbying groups. What can we do to really show fact versus fiction here?

[Sam Hersh]

I think Mr. Turner really answered a lot of that. In the short amount of time I have I do think, when it comes to more education and awareness initiatives from the government, that it's warranted. In terms of some myths that we just heard of, the idea that there is no demand or there's very little demand for this I don't think is true. I think the real issue is the restriction of the market supply and the uncertainty when it comes to what's happening with the EVAS. We need a more stable EVAS and I think that would lead to higher demand.

[The Chair, Liberal, Angelo Iacono]

Thank you.

Mr. Bonin, you have the floor for six minutes.

[Patrick Bonin, Bloc, Repentigny, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I have to admit that my Conservative colleagues are particularly effective in some of their campaigns. We saw this in the case of carbon pricing, which even led the government to backtrack. We've also seen it with electric vehicles. In fact, they oppose almost every environmental measure through strategic communications. It has to be said that sometimes there's even disinformation.

Do you think the government is doing enough to defend, promote and publicize the benefits of a zero-emission mandate?

[Sam Hersh]

Yes, I think the government could probably do a better job. As I just said, we need more education and awareness programs. We've tried to educate and raise awareness in a number of campaigns. I think there are a lot of myths out there, such as the myth that there's a $20‑million tax. I think the government should be doing more to combat these ideas and rhetoric.

[Patrick Bonin, Bloc, Repentigny, QC]

What would you like to see the government do in terms of concrete action?

[Sam Hersh]

I'd like to see more programs and more investment in certain programs so that we can promote them in the various regions. More information would be needed not only on how electric vehicles work, but also on the standard itself. I find that there are a lot of myths and a great deal of misinformation about the standard itself.

[Patrick Bonin, Bloc, Repentigny, QC]

So we need education, awareness and information programs, as well as advertising.

[Sam Hersh]

Yes.

[Patrick Bonin, Bloc, Repentigny, QC]

Mr. Turner, we don't hear enough about opportunity costs, particularly economic and health costs. I think you put it at $8 billion.

I'd like you to talk a little bit about that.

Can you tell us about the benefits of that?

[Jeff Turner]

Thank you for your question.

I would say that this is often left out of the discussion. I think a lot of our analysis in previous years had a big focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but I think this loses sight of a number of benefits that are much closer to home for the average consumer.

I mentioned my neighbour, who is very happy to be saving thousands of dollars a year by driving an EV. That's one of the benefits of this technology that is, really, overlooked. I think the vast majority of people are still unaware of how much more affordable an EV can be to drive.

In terms of air quality, anybody who lives in a city is familiar with those days, during the peak of summer, when you go in and you see that yellow haze over the city. The numbers show that this has a significant impact on a portion of our population who deals with respiratory challenges.

[Patrick Bonin, Bloc, Repentigny, QC]

Can you tell us about the costs, not only in dollars, but also in human life and hospitalization? That might wake up my Conservative colleagues.