Yes, Mr. Chairman, I'd be happy to take a couple of minutes, and I'll try to make it brief; I recognize the time.
I will just take a minute to explain a couple of the charts that go through the revenue estimates to make sure everything is clear. What we're trying to do in calculating this is to look at the taxes that would be paid under a corporate structure versus the taxes that would be paid by the same entity under a trust structure. So we try to look at those two things, build that up, and compare at the end what the differences are and how big the revenue loss is.
If we look at that chart over there, the federal government loss, it takes you through those components, and it's in the background documents you have as well. If you look at the first panel, and I won't go through it in gory detail, we first look at the taxes under the FTE or the trust structure, and that includes taxes paid by the unitholders of the trust--there's no entity-level tax paid there by the trust itself, that's one of the issues--and taxes that are paid in other distributions, for example, to third-party lenders. If you look at the total of that--this is data that's based on 2005 built up to 2006--it's $1.6 billion.
If you look at the second panel, it says what that same operation would pay under a corporate structure. And there you have the corporate income tax that would be paid and you have taxes that would be paid by the shareholders on distributions and, again, the third-party lenders, and that comes up to roughly $2.2 billion or $2.3 billion.
In a sense, that's your ongoing difference. You take that $2.275 billion, subtract $1.675 billion and you get a $600 million difference. As I said, that's your ongoing loss that's there every year. But there's also another effect, and that's the one-time capital gains. When a corporation converts into a trust, there can be a capital gain arising from the increase in the share prices, and that happens in the year of conversion. That gives us capital gains revenue in that year, or some of it accrues that year and some of it accrues later. We factored that into the calculation as well, and that reduces the revenue loss. Here you see it's by $100 million, and it takes you down to a net loss for 2006 of $500 million.
As the minister indicated earlier, this is the federal revenue loss. There would be provincial revenue losses as well, and you've heard some of the numbers that have been played out.
First, the important thing in this calculation is to look at the taxes that are paid at the different stages under the two different structures and make sure you add them all up and compare them, and that's what we've done.
The other chart that's interesting in this context is over there, but it's also in your package, and it's the sensitivity chart. What we've done is said yes, $500 million is our best estimate of the cost. We think it's a conservative estimate, because some of the things we've seen since then suggest that some of the parameters might be understating it.
What this chart shows is if you adjust some of those key parameters, how much do the revenue estimates change? The two we've picked up here are the effective corporate tax rate, because in doing the calculation under the corporate structure you have to make an assumption about how much corporate taxes would have been paid, and the other parameter is the proportion of the entity that's held by tax-exempt investors. If it's held by taxable investors, it has one tax effect; if it's held by tax exempts, we don't collect any tax, RRSPs, RRIFs, in the year.