Thank you for your question.
Well, I think I was careful not to make any predictions, and I think for that very reason. Of course, when we get to July 17, when we issue our monetary policy report, we will put our best numbers forward, as we did in the past MPR, which of course I was not part of.
But I think the answer to your question is that models don't become useless in this setting. What they become, though, is less useful than they usually are, as if the zone of ignorance or the margin of error is bigger. That requires us to work harder at the judgmental aspects of how we put these numbers together, which I am absolutely certain the OECD would agree with. They have done exactly the same thing.
When you do these things, then, you use the model as a way to ask the right questions, and then you use other evidence or other models to help fill in the shady parts. We already do this at the bank; I've seen enough to know that's true. So it's a robust conversation, and then we'll come in and say that in our best judgment it's this for 2013 and this for 2014.
