Evidence of meeting #25 for Finance in the 41st Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was analysis.

A recording is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Kevin Page  Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Sahir Khan  Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, Expenditure and Revenue Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Jeff Danforth  Economic Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament

5 p.m.

Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament

Kevin Page

Sir, in the context of fiscal sustainability, when we look forward, we look at how aging demographics will impact on the provinces as well as the federal government. In the report that we provided at the end of September, we break out where we think all the key spending components are. We do projections that look at impacts of demographics, potential enrichment, and other cost factors.

In that context, when we look at the fiscal gap as a result of aging demographics, we're saying roughly something in the neighbourhood of 2.7 percentage points of GDP, roughly equally balanced as we kind of go forward in terms of dealing with the demographic issue.

I think it's true that we have certain provinces right now that are under more fiscal strain than others, and certainly under potentially more fiscal strain than the federal government. When we look at the fiscal sustainability now, trying to stabilize both, we're talking about a gap of 2.7 percentage points. That's quite significant.

It's less significant than what some other countries are experiencing, like the U.S. and the U.K. on a fiscal sustainability basis. Again, this analysis is provided for all other countries, but it's balanced between the two. So we have fiscal holes or fiscal gaps at both levels.

5 p.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

For the record, which provinces concern you most, in terms of their debt levels and their ability to meet them going forward?

5 p.m.

Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament

Kevin Page

Actually, we don't have that analysis for you here today. I'd be hesitant to provide a kind of conclusion, as to....

5 p.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Okay. Maybe we'll have to go for coffee as well and discuss that.

5 p.m.

Some hon. members

Oh, oh!

5 p.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

I very much appreciate you and your team being here with answers to our questions. We look forward to any further additional information you may provide to the committee, and we look forward to seeing you again. Thank you very much.

Thank you, colleagues.

The meeting is adjourned.