Evidence of meeting #72 for Finance in the 41st Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was dollar.

A video is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Rhys Mendes  Deputy Chief, Canadian Economic Analysis, Bank of Canada
Jeff Walker  Vice-President, Public Affairs, Canadian Automobile Association
Jayson Myers  President and Chief Executive Officer, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters
Mark Nantais  President, Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association
James Stanford  Economist, Unifor
Melissa Blake  Mayor, Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo
Flavio Volpe  President, Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association
Angella MacEwen  Senior Economist, Social and Economic Policy, Canadian Labour Congress
Catherine Cobden  Executive Vice-President, Forest Products Association of Canada
Ron Watkins  President, Canadian Steel Producers Association

9:05 a.m.

NDP

Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC

You haven't used the word, but it sounds like an attempt to kick-start it, an attempt to stimulate, but is that a loaded economic phrase? Again, I don't want to.... I'm trying to interpret the bank's initiative. It surprised everybody, as you know, but the bank took a longer view on this and felt that this was important to do.

9:05 a.m.

Deputy Chief, Canadian Economic Analysis, Bank of Canada

Rhys Mendes

I think it's clear that monetary policy in Canada has been stimulative for some time in response to the after-effects of the global economic and financial crisis and that monetary policy responds to all the shocks that hit the Canadian economy in order to try to return inflation to target over the medium term.

9:10 a.m.

NDP

Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC

Again, I want to be careful.

Mr. Walker, I want to challenge one thing. I think it was you who talked about the consumer confidence perhaps being concentrated in Alberta, where the worries are greatest. Was it you who spoke to this?

9:10 a.m.

Vice-President, Public Affairs, Canadian Automobile Association

Jeff Walker

All I said was that in Alberta what the data tells us is that the concern around the macroeconomic aspect of this has taken hold to a greater extent than it has in the rest of Canada.

9:10 a.m.

NDP

Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC

The only reason I bring it up is that I was just looking at the Conference Board's report, which showed that consumer confidence fell 11 points across B.C., Alberta, Ontario, and the Atlantic provinces. I would like to debate that, but I'm without the time to do it.

My last question is for Mr. Myers.

Do we know from the manufacturers' side of things how much of manufacturing in Canada is tied to the energy sector? Is your association able to present...? We're talking about whether there is going to be a pickup in the manufacturing industry, as has maybe been historically true, and there is some uncertainty as to whether it is in fact true.

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Just a brief response, please.

9:10 a.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters

Jayson Myers

The analysis we've done is for oil sands. I'll send a copy of our analysis to the committee. It basically shows that there could be a $12 billion hit on overall manufacturing sales across the country.

9:10 a.m.

NDP

Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC

Thank you.

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Thank you, Mr. Cullen.

We'll go to Mr. Saxton, please.

March 12th, 2015 / 9:10 a.m.

Conservative

Andrew Saxton Conservative North Vancouver, BC

Thanks to our witnesses for being here today.

My first question is for Mr. Mendes at the Bank of Canada.

Some people have characterized this as an economic crisis. Do you think this is an economic crisis?

9:10 a.m.

Deputy Chief, Canadian Economic Analysis, Bank of Canada

Rhys Mendes

As we've said, it is negative for the Canadian economy. Canada's economy has, over time, demonstrated the ability to flexibly respond to various shocks. Through the period of rising oil prices, labour and capital shifted across sectors and across regions in response to the incentives created by that. Some of the same trends will likely reverse in response to lower oil prices. Overall, as I said, it is negative for the Canadian economy.

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

Andrew Saxton Conservative North Vancouver, BC

Does the bank take into consideration that many of the jobs lost in the energy sector were in fact contract positions that will be re-established once the price goes back up?

9:10 a.m.

Deputy Chief, Canadian Economic Analysis, Bank of Canada

Rhys Mendes

Our working assumption in our analysis is that the price remains constant at roughly its recent level, so in our latest monetary policy report for Brent oil prices, that was $60. That assumption is driven by the fact that, one, it's consistent with our assumption for the Canadian dollar, which we assume to be constant over our projections, and two, it's difficult to beat a constant oil price assumption. It's difficult to forecast oil prices. We did in the past use futures prices, but they didn't do materially better. For simplicity, we assume a constant oil price over our projections, and...[Technical difficulty—Editor]—

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Sorry, Mr. Mendes.

Is there something on that's causing a beep at our end?

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

Andrew Saxton Conservative North Vancouver, BC

I think we can live with it, Chair.

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Okay. Sorry, I apologize for that.

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

Andrew Saxton Conservative North Vancouver, BC

It's Mr. Cullen thinking out loud, that's all.

9:10 a.m.

Voices

Oh, oh!

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

I apologize, Mr. Mendes. Please continue.

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

Andrew Saxton Conservative North Vancouver, BC

Have we restarted the clock, Chair?

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Yes.

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

Andrew Saxton Conservative North Vancouver, BC

Thank you.

My next question is for Mr. Walker with the CAA.

How have the lower oil prices had an impact on your members?

9:10 a.m.

Vice-President, Public Affairs, Canadian Automobile Association

Jeff Walker

So far, most members are pretty happy about it. This is the thing, though: again, most consumers on a day-to-day level are thinking about relatively short term, relatively microeconomic considerations, and because they fill their vehicles with gas once a week, it tends to be a reference point for how they're feeling overall. In general, as I alluded to earlier, most Canadians so far are feeling pretty good about the fact that they've saved, ballpark, 30% on gas than they had previously. It was almost like they had no idea it was coming, so it was a nice bonus for them. In the west, in Alberta and to a lesser extent Saskatchewan, you see more people reflecting a sense of, whoa, this could be a bigger picture, longer term, macroeconomic problem. The short term, “Hey, I'm getting cheaper gas,” is trumped by, “Wow, my house price might drop by 30% or 20%,” or some significant number. It depends on where you live how it weighs out in terms of people's overall feeling about what's happened on gas prices.

I would make one additional point which I think is really important. The oil price has gone from $110 to roughly $60, right? Gas prices have not dropped by that same amount. There are studies that have been done in the past. They call it the rocket and feather effect in gas prices, where they rocket up when oil prices go up, but they don't come down that fast when oil prices go down. One of the things that I believe this group might want to look at are some studies around what is happening in terms of the impact on the relationship between oil prices and gas prices at the pump for consumers over time. If you look at those proportionate changes, it isn't the same.

9:15 a.m.

Conservative

Andrew Saxton Conservative North Vancouver, BC

Thank you very much.

My next question is for Jayson Myers.

Jason, have you seen that in central Canada manufacturers have actually benefited as a result of the lower oil price?

9:15 a.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters

Jayson Myers

It's not so much from the downward trend in oil prices, but from the stronger growth in the U.S. and from a lower dollar. I think one of the key things—and it goes back to your previous question about employees in the oil sector—is a number of manufacturers across the country, particularly in Ontario, eastern Canada, and in Quebec, see, I think, opportunities to take some of the people who were previously employed in the oil industry and who were travelling across the country.... It is going to ease their ability to find skilled workers, particularly in the trades. That may have a positive impact on their ability to increase production and relieve some of the capacity constraints. I think that's one of the positive impacts here.