Evidence of meeting #72 for Finance in the 41st Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was dollar.

A video is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Rhys Mendes  Deputy Chief, Canadian Economic Analysis, Bank of Canada
Jeff Walker  Vice-President, Public Affairs, Canadian Automobile Association
Jayson Myers  President and Chief Executive Officer, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters
Mark Nantais  President, Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association
James Stanford  Economist, Unifor
Melissa Blake  Mayor, Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo
Flavio Volpe  President, Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association
Angella MacEwen  Senior Economist, Social and Economic Policy, Canadian Labour Congress
Catherine Cobden  Executive Vice-President, Forest Products Association of Canada
Ron Watkins  President, Canadian Steel Producers Association

10 a.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters

Jayson Myers

Maybe I'll just focus on three key points.

The first one is the need to secure a new investment in terms of assembly, because that drives the auto supply chain. The movement of assembly down into the southern states and Mexico means that we've lost a lot of the potential for growth here in Canada, so to secure a new investment there is critical.

The second one is that the entire auto industry is going through some pretty big technological changes in response to regulatory requirements around emissions, driving, lightweighting, smart vehicles, and all of this stuff. We have to make sure that our auto parts industry in particular keeps up with that technology, and I think those investments in R and D and new technology are critical.

The third one, of course, is that our auto parts and vehicle assembly industry is a global industry. Trade, regulatory cooperation, and making sure that we have trade remedies in place so that we can effectively enforce the trade rules of our trade agreements are extremely important, as is the new opportunity.

10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Thank you, Mr. Van Kesteren

Mr. Adler, please.

March 12th, 2015 / 10 a.m.

Conservative

Mark Adler Conservative York Centre, ON

Thanks to all the witnesses today.

I want to begin by saying that the challenge for any government is in how it deals with events. One unforeseen event, of course, was the drop in the global price of oil.

I want to ask Mr. Myers first about what kind of role our government's economic record played, and how important it was, in the unforeseen drop in global oil prices. You remember that when we first came into government, we paid down a massive amount of public debt. We're going to be the first government of the G-7 to balance our budget. We've created 1.2 million new jobs since the depths of the recession. We have the lowest net debt to GDP ratio of any country in the G-7.

How important are those factors in light of what we see on the global scene right now in terms of lower oil prices? How has that protected us or cushioned the potential blow that this obviously could have had if we had been in a weaker position?

10:05 a.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters

Jayson Myers

The improved fiscal situation, the steps that have been taken to encourage companies to make investments in productive assets and to be more flexible, the response of the Bank of Canada, all of that, which has been enabled by a lot of the improvement on the fiscal side, I think has been very positive in being able to cushion the Canadian economy against the rapid plunge in oil prices.

As I said before, I don't think this is an economic crisis for the Canadian economy. I think there are bigger risks out there in terms of the global financial economy and that situation. I think Canada is very well positioned with respect to our fiscal situation and our debt situation.

10:05 a.m.

Conservative

Mark Adler Conservative York Centre, ON

Thank you.

Mr. Nantais or Mr. Myers, either one of you can jump in on this one. Your members are producers of goods and services, and clearly this is a.... I think a lot of people are fixated on price. Why aren't we seeing, with this drop in oil prices.... Historically, we've seen that a lot of layoffs would follow that. We're not seeing that now. Why do you suppose that is? Maybe Mr. Nantais could start.

10:05 a.m.

President, Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association

Mark Nantais

Maybe I can speak at least to the auto industry. As I mentioned, first off, investment decisions are in the long term. The short-term impacts of the price of oil, for instance, aren't really major factors. If it tends to be a long-term trend, that may be a different story, and that long-term trend will make a difference. When we develop new vehicles, we respond, and with the fact that we export 85% of those to the U.S., and the U.S. continues—as was reported repeatedly here—to have greater disposable income, they will of course use the benefit of that to purchase new goods, and those are the goods that we export primarily.

We're at capacity, and as long as we continue to benefit from that additional disposable income and the export products they're demanding, then we'll be in fair shape. The longer term may be a different story. We all have economists who are looking at these details very closely for changing directions and trends. For the moment, we respond to the demand, and the demand is there.

10:05 a.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters

Jayson Myers

I think, reiterating what Jim said, too, we're seeing sectoral and regional impacts on employment and on economic activity, particularly for the suppliers in oil exploration and oil drilling in the oil sands sector. It has a pretty large range right across the country, but particularly in western Canada, we're seeing that there. There are also the services that are wrapped around that on the retail side, real estate, for example, in western Canada.

To some extent there's a saving grace in that it is becoming easier to find people with the skills in particularly the trade sector, which is the number one constraint on growth for manufacturing across the country, so there is a positive impact here as well. I agree with Mark that these are longer-term changes, and it will take some time to adjust, but I don't see a major downturn in employment, particularly on the part of skilled trades that are no longer in the construction field with respect to oil. I think they will be easily.... There's a lot of demand for those types of people right across the country.

10:05 a.m.

Conservative

Mark Adler Conservative York Centre, ON

Were there companies, airlines and so on...? I mean, nobody saw this coming in terms of the precipitous drop in the price of global oil. But were there companies that shorted when the price started to drop in order to buffer themselves against any potential increase—nobody saw it dropping as much as it did—and bought oil at, say, $100 or $110, locked in for the next year or so?

10:05 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Please make a brief response.

10:10 a.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters

Jayson Myers

Okay.

Yes, and that's a major issue in the short term, because you have a lot of companies that have bought oil or other commodities, bought high even in terms of a higher Canadian dollar, and now, as the Canadian dollar has dropped, they're left with materials and inventory that are relatively highly priced here. In the short term, that is a problem. It really has an impact on operating cash and it's one of the problems we're seeing right now in that adjustment.

10:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Thank you, Mr. Adler.

Colleagues, I have a couple of questions, but I have a request from Mr. Brison. He had a question for Mr. Stanford and we didn't have the video conference set up. He's asking for the consent of the committee to ask one 30-second question and maybe a minute for the answer from Mr. Stanford.

10:10 a.m.

Conservative

Ron Cannan Conservative Kelowna—Lake Country, BC

All right.

10:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

I'm sure it'll be a very nice, polite question, Mr. Brison.

10:10 a.m.

Liberal

Scott Brison Liberal Kings—Hants, NS

Absolutely. Mr. Stanford and I have been kicking around these parts for some time, so it's always good to hear from him.

Mr. Stanford, you made reference to the fact that oil prices are not actually at an abnormal level given historic pricing of commodities. Given the volatile nature of oil prices and commodity prices, do you think the federal government has focused too narrowly on this one sector and potentially put all its eggs in one basket over the last several years? Is it good fiscal policy to build your fiscal framework around $100-a-barrel WTI oil?

10:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Just a brief response, Mr. Stanford.

10:10 a.m.

Economist, Unifor

Dr. James Stanford

Thank you.

To the extent that our fiscal plans and our economic strategies were premised on the expectation that the oil price was high and going one way, and that we would be an energy superpower, and that this would drive our whole economy forward, then I think that was a mistake. Now, in reality, there were many other things, of course, that were being done, so we never, as a country, put all our eggs in the oil basket, nor should we have.

In at least our rhetoric, and to some extent in our policy, I think we emphasized too much that one sector and underestimated the importance of maintaining diversity in our economy and maximizing the value-added links to that natural resource sector. We wasted huge opportunities in using the growth in resources to leverage more demand for Canadian manufactured goods, for Canadian-made services and other inputs, to get more bang from the buck.

One good example of that has been how we've treated our petroleum refining industry. The graph in the handout shows you that real GDP in refining has actually declined since 2002 by over 10%. We should actually be focusing on getting more value-added out of our resource and less of a belief that pure extraction will save the day for us.

10:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Thank you, Mr. Stanford.

I have time for one question, and I want to follow up with Mr. Myers.

First of all, I thought your point that lower oil prices will result in a very small reduction in energy costs was a very interesting one which I just wanted to highlight.

Second, in your brief, you stated the following:

The rapid depreciation of the Canadian dollar has increased the cost of imported materials, parts, and equipment for manufacturers across Canada....in the short-term many companies are caught with higher input costs without offsetting revenue benefits.

I wanted you to expand on that and perhaps address the question of whether the Canadian manufacturing sector and companies took advantage when the dollar was near parity in terms of upgrading their equipment. You talked about investing in the skills, equipment, and new products. Did they invest in new equipment? Then perhaps you could link into a much broader policy issue, which we hear a lot about, that companies are sitting on cash, to use a sort of colloquial expression.

Could you address that?

10:10 a.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters

Jayson Myers

I think it comes down to all of the impacts on cashflow. Right now, in the short term for companies that are caught with high inventory costs and high materials costs and that aren't able to take advantage of the lower dollar immediately, that does eat into their cashflow and their operating cash. Over a period of time it may work out because they'll be selling at a lower dollar and making more Canadian dollars, so there is an offsetting benefit there.

It's very difficult for any company, let alone any government, to do any forecasting around prices or currencies. This is a dismal profession. I remember it was only a few years ago that some economists—I don't want to say some of us—were predicting a price of $200 a barrel for oil. It's very difficult for anybody...particularly when contracts are set over a long period of time. The price volatility and currency volatility do really affect cashflow, usually negatively, until adjustments can be made.

To your major point, we hear a lot about companies sitting on cash, and in fact, they are in their balance sheets; cash is more in their balance sheets. But that's like saying you have more cash in your RRSP. You're not necessarily going to spend that, nor should you be spending that cash immediately.

What drives investment is operating cash, which is usually after-tax profits plus depreciation. That's why the accelerated capital cost allowance is so important; it drives the cashflow that drives the investment. Right now, and really since 2011, we're seeing record levels of investment in machinery and equipment, usually productive new technologies on the part of manufacturers. A lot of that is attributable to the accelerated depreciation that has been in effect since 2007.

The operating cash drives the investment, and so all of these changes in prices and in currency values will also be affecting that cashflow in a very volatile way. I think it's very important that we continue to encourage the productive use and productive investment from that cash rather than just simply a distribution of dividends.

10:15 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

I'm sorry to cut you off. It's a very interesting topic that I'd like to continue, but unfortunately we are at the end of our first panel.

I'll just point out that this committee has recommended the extension of the ACCA, accelerated capital cost allowance. Our work going back to 2007 has paid some benefits. I don't know when the temporary ACCA from 2007 becomes permanent, but we'll see on that.

Thank you so much for being here. Thank you, Mr. Stanford, for being with us in Toronto and your patience in setting up the video conference. We appreciate all of your comments and responses. If you have anything further, please do submit it and we'll ensure that all committee members get it.

Colleagues, we'll suspend for a minute or two.

10:15 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

I call this meeting back to order.

We are continuing with our study of the impact of low oil prices on the Canadian economy.

Colleagues, I understand that there will be a vote in the House in an hour, so I'm not exactly sure how we're going to proceed here. We'll do as much as we can before that vote and see whether we can come back.

First of all, from the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association, we have the president, Mr. Flavio Volpe. Welcome.

From the Canadian Labour Congress, we have the senior economist, Ms. Angella MacEwen. Welcome back.

We have from the Forest Products Association of Canada, the executive vice-president, Ms. Catherine Cobden. Welcome back to the committee.

From the Canadian Steel Producers Association, we have the president, Mr. Ron Watkins. Welcome to you.

From Fort McMurray, we have the mayor of the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Ms. Melissa Blake.

Melissa, can you hear me okay?

10:15 a.m.

Melissa Blake Mayor, Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo

Yes I can, thanks.

10:15 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Welcome, and thank you for being with us from Alberta this morning.

You'll each have five minutes for an opening statement and then we'll go to questions from members.

We'll begin with Mr. Volpe, please.

10:15 a.m.

Flavio Volpe President, Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association

Good morning, committee chair and honourable members. I'm pleased to join you today. I would like to thank you for this opportunity to share with you our views and perspectives on the effect of oil price fluctuation and the consequent foreign exchange rate on the automotive parts manufacturing sector.

To start, please allow me to introduce the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association. The APMA is Canada's national association representing OEM producers of parts, equipment, tools, supplies, and services for the worldwide automotive industry. The association was founded in 1952, and its members account for 90% of independent parts production in Canada. In 2013 automotive parts shipments were over $25 billion, and the industry employment level was over 80,000 people.

Much has been made about the material decline in the spot value of oil in recent months and its consequent effect on the value of Canadian currency, especially against its American equivalent. While creating a disadvantage for anyone importing American finished goods, the common position is that Canadian exporters have accrued an advantage over the immediate short term. The biggest export in the Canadian manufacturing sector is automotive, and the most diverse job-intensive subsector of that business is automotive parts manufacturing. Approximately 500 independent companies in Canada manufacture parts for original equipment manufacturers' assembly operations at home and abroad.

Parts manufacturers deal with currency risk management and manipulation, and export finished goods as a matter of course. We're here today to contribute to your committee's analysis because we believe the benefits accruing from the currently advantageous Canada-U.S. foreign exchange rate is neither permanent nor structural in the automotive parts manufacturing sector. Furthermore, from a long-term planning perspective, the longer the currency valuation outlook remains pessimistic, the more likely that OEM forecasting modellers will be planning to benefit from Canadian purchasing while ignoring escalating U.S. dollar-based input costs that develop at the same time.

Most parts manufacturers fall into a similar band, with EBITDA margins running from 8% to 12% and gross margins in the 15% to 20% range. The major inputs to a typical systems supplier or heavy manufacturing North American plant would be raw materials such as steel or resin, components from the lower tiers of suppliers, direct labour, and plant overhead.

While raw materials and lower-tier components as a percentage of sales can vary depending on the nature of the product being produced, one can generalize that they likely represent in the range of 50% of the cost of sales. For most suppliers, the underlying currency of these key input costs is predominantly the U.S. dollar. While the drop in oil prices has reduced the input costs of some non-specialized resin supply in the market, complex resins used in higher value-added applications remain relatively unaffected.

Direct labour, of course, for a Canadian supplier operating in Canada is clearly denominated in Canadian currency. In the automotive parts sector, that typically constitutes about 10% of sales costs, a relatively smaller cost compared with raw materials, and I should note, a lower percentage of costs than final assemblers.

Plant overhead is a mix of Canadian foreign currency-based exposure. Canadian-based costs include electricity, indirect labour, and local services. However, virtually all specialized and heavy machinery and ancillary equipment is based in U.S. or Euro currency costs. These costs typically run in the 15% to 20% of sales costs, with approximately half of that being in Canadian currency.

If we take these figures together as a typical volume-based auto parts supplier's cost breakdown, a supplier would have U.S. dollar content in the 50% to 65% range of costs of sales. On the revenue side of the ledger, the transacting currency typically differs by OEM, but most manufacturers would see a majority of the percentage of sales in U.S. dollars. However, increasingly during the recent term of Canadian currency overvaluation of the last five to ten years, many OEMs have begun the practice of pricing directly in Canadian dollars at the time of sourcing. Those plants do not benefit at all from the Canadian dollar devaluation.

While programs priced in U.S. dollars are benefiting in the short to mid term, they would typically see some of these gains retracted through the business planning process and purchasing repricing from their OEM customers. Many suppliers with multiple operations and OEM customers have adopted hedging programs to reduce their exposure, but the success of those mechanisms is difficult to forecast because cashflows from any given product program are based on future volume estimates. History has shown that they fluctuate materially.

I'll save you the rest on multi-jurisdictional exposure. I'll say only that a lot of Canadian companies have U.S. plants as well, and they operate Mexican plants.

Canadian-based plants in those portfolios are doing well against their American plants, but of course, as we've been competing with the Mexican operations, the Canadian dollar and the peso have kept pace and there are a lot of other dynamics that come into play. Foreign exchange isn't one of them.

10:25 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Thank you for your presentation.

We'll hear from Ms. MacEwen, please.

10:25 a.m.

Angella MacEwen Senior Economist, Social and Economic Policy, Canadian Labour Congress

I'd like to thank the committee for taking this study on. We think it's very important. Thank you for inviting the Canadian Labour Congress.

I'm here on behalf of 3.3 million members of the Canadian Labour Congress. We bring together workers from virtually all sectors of the Canadian economy, in all occupations, and in all parts of Canada. I'm going to be speaking from that perspective.

It has long been the position of the CLC that Canada has had an overreliance on unprocessed and semi-processed resource exports, which has had a negative impact on productivity. We heard Jim Stanford earlier talking about the need for making linkages between stuff that we pull out of the ground and stuff that we sell.

As a result of globalization and unfavourable trade deals, a high dollar, and a devastating recession, manufacturing in Ontario especially has experienced devastating losses over the past decade.

Coming out of the recession, business investments in manufacturing and other areas have been very slow to rebound. The October 2014 monetary policy report of the Bank of Canada suggested that this was because of a semi-permament loss of capacity in several manufacturing export sectors and that we should not expect to see business investment and hiring pick up until it was clear that the Canadian economy was on more solid footing.

That was before the price of oil collapsed. In the context of what normally happens to manufacturing if the price of oil collapses, the dollar lowers, and that's better for export sectors, but this indicates that we don't necessarily have the capacity for those export and manufacturing sectors to pick up the slack and carry the economy forward. Given that context, it's the opinion of the Canadian Labour Congress that the lower price of oil will be a net negative for the Canadian economy as the lower dollar will be insufficient to spur new business investment.

We've also pointed out several times that corporate tax cuts have failed to spur new business investment. If we look at the GDP data released for the fourth quarter of 2014, it's clear that there were areas of weakness showing in the economy even before the full impact of oil prices was felt. These include continued dependence on consumer spending to drive economic growth. In that quarter it grew 2% on an annualized basis. In that quarter we saw decreases in machinery and equipment investments, the export of goods falling to 0.5% on an annualized basis, and growth hinging on a buildup of inventories.

One impact of the falling price of oil we could expect to see is cuts to investments by private sector companies and public sector bodies such as the Province of Alberta and other hard-hit oil provinces. We see a shrinking potential output, which will lead to increased unemployment.

To compensate for this lack of investment in the Canadian economy and to respond to the additional negative impact that the falling price of oil will have on the Canadian economy, the Canadian Labour Congress calls for a major public investment program to create good jobs, to promote our environmental goals, to stimulate new private sector investment, and to boost overall productivity.

In October 2014, the International Monetary Fund suggested that the time was right for Canada to make some much-needed infrastructure investments. I previously testified before the committee about these investments. Clearly identified infrastructure needs could be financed through borrowing without increasing our debt-to-GDP ratios since the types of public infrastructure investment we're calling for increase growth both in the short term and in the long term.

Encouraging value-added production investment in key sectors along with green job and green skills initiatives will enhance innovation and labour productivity. These initiatives will also require active government strategies on trade, sectoral development, and domestic procurement strategies. Having a sectoral development policy that seeks to promote more investment, production, employment, and exports, especially in a diversity of sectors in the economy, is key to attaining a more desirable sectoral mix and a greater share of output and employment.

Thank you.