In our outlook this time, to take into account the uncertainty around the economic outlook, we have provided a fan chart. Basically, this is a range of possible outcomes that have varying degrees of likelihood. The idea here is to stress that we're moving beyond just looking at one scenario and that there's a probability of other scenarios. Within that fan chart, we think about our risks on the upside and on the downside.
On the upside, we think that our most important risk is that we would have stronger household spending. Currently, we are projecting a pullback in spending by households over the medium term. It has surprised us for awhile that consumer spending has held up quite strongly and that growth has increased. We think that it's possible that, even though household debt levels stay really high, households become less prudent, let's say. That's our upside risk.
On the downside, we think that the most important risk is continued weakness in business investment. When we look in our outlook, we think that the conditions on the financial side and the economic side in terms of confidence, interest rates, and borrowing rates should result in business investment picking up quite strongly. Our downside risk, whether because of increased uncertainty or lack of business confidence, is that we don't get that pickup.
Those are the two main risks that we've identified, but we wanted to stress that there is a lot of uncertainty and that's why we put together these fan charts.