Thank you very much for the invitation to appear. It really is an honour to be here again before the Standing Committee on Finance as you prepare the 2021 budget.
I'll use my time to talk about Alberta's contributions to Canada, the CFS, and fiscal stabilization. I'd like to start with Fairness Alberta's motto “Proudly Canadian, fiercely Albertan”.
We are a group of Canadians who believe Alberta has not been treated fairly, and the situation is serious enough that our 14 directors, 38 voting members, and many other supporters have dedicated time and money to try to make a difference. We believe that by respectfully but assertively raising awareness across Canada about the basic facts, we could persuade a majority to support meaningful reforms.
I can tell you there's a lot of pessimism out here. We take some flak for not beating at least a quasi-separatist drum, but our members believe there are millions of fair-minded Canadians who just need to hear clear, positive, fact-based messages to understand better why there is legitimacy to the anger and frustration in the west, and join our calls for change.
Our key message is to convey how beneficial Alberta's productivity has been for all of Canada. In terms of the federal balance sheet alone, Albertans sent $324 billion more to Ottawa over the last 20 years than was spent back in Alberta, partly because of higher incomes, but also due to Alberta getting the least federal spending of any province by far. That $324 billion since 2000 is equivalent to a $320,000 net transfer for every Alberta family, and also a $42,000 benefit for families outside of Alberta.
After a five-year energy downturn, exacerbated by a Russia-OPEC price war and COVID-19, that productivity is at risk. Many Albertans feel that if it were central or eastern Canada where a critical economic sector took a hit, the federal government would be right there with significant targeted financial and other support.
Not only have we seen little in the way of unique measures, but the looming CFS could make things much worse. A study by Canadians for Affordable Energy estimates it will cost Canada 30,000 jobs and $22 billion in capital investment. If the CFS goes ahead, we will become the only country to target natural gas with a fuel standard. Not even California does this.
In fact, while we look to become the world leader in taxing natural gas, most jurisdictions are seeking to expand its use as a cleaner energy option. The CFS just makes no sense given our status as a sparsely populated, cold-weather, exporting nation with an abundance of natural gas reserves. It will put everyone in Canada who uses it for heat—households, manufacturers, warehouses, industrial users like oil sands and petrochemicals—at a competitive disadvantage globally, just as the world seeks to recover from this jobs and fiscal crisis.
Moreover, Alberta is embracing the possibilities from this resource with an ambitious natural gas strategy aimed at plastics recycling, hydrogen, petrochemicals and LNG. For jobs recovery initiatives like this, we need governments working together, not at cross purposes. We have a moral imperative to restore opportunity for those many families suffering from jobs and businesses lost across Canada, not to prolong it in order to pursue other priorities.
As the Standing Committee on Finance, you know better than anyone that the staggering COVID debts also need to be paid off, and that every dollar we borrow this year means less flexibility in the future. We need to stop the bleeding and get every province making the most of its economy in order for Canada to recover from this jobs and fiscal crisis.
As in the 2009 recession, Alberta's productivity can boost Canada's economy if federal policies let us reach our potential. That's why we are pushing for change on various files, particularly the CFS. For the sake of unity, we also have proposals for equalization and fiscal stabilization.
I'll close by briefly noting the change to stabilization announced this week. Yes, there was a modest improvement to the cap on fiscal stabilization, but it completely ignored the unanimous agreement from all 13 premieres to drop the cap and make it retroactive to 2015 in recognition of the contributions from Alberta.
In 2015, provincial revenues here dropped $8 billion, but Alberta's stabilization payment was $250 million, or 3% of that. Under the new formula, with the $170 per person cap, it would still only cover 9% of that loss, which can hardly be called stabilization. When you consider the stabilization Albertans have provided federal revenues every year, it's about $4,000 per person or more, but all we can ever get back when we need it is $170 dollars. It becomes clear that fiscal flows between Alberta and Canada are badly broken.
While we need to see action on fiscal transfers for the sake of fairness and national unity, the urgent priority right now has to be on economic recovery so there is still wealth to share in Canada.
Please don't impose the clean fuel standard. I ask all of you to push back against any other policies that extend the awful suffering this jobs crisis inflicts on families, not just in Alberta but across Canada.
Again, thank you very much for this pre-budget consultation and inviting me to speak to you today. I look forward to your questions.