Evidence of meeting #153 for Finance in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was changes.

A video is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Steven Lewis  Adjunct Professor of Health Policy, Simon Fraser University, As an Individual
Jack Chaffe  Officer at Large, Canadian Cattle Association
Kim G. C. Moody  Moodys LLP Tax Advisors, As an Individual
Yves Giroux  Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Govindadeva Bernier  Director, Budgetary Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Katrina Miller  Executive Director, Canadians for Tax Fairness

4:25 p.m.

Director, Budgetary Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Govindadeva Bernier

In the case of individuals, capital gains are certainly quite volatile. If we look at the historical data since 2011, we see that the number of individuals who may have been affected fluctuates. That number was generally around 20,000 to 30,000 at the beginning of the decade. As we approached 2020, it was around the number indicated in the budget, which is 40,000. The year 2021 was particularly active in terms of capital gains: I believe nearly 80,000 people with capital gains would have been above the $250,000 threshold. The fact remains that the number fluctuates considerably from year to year, and we don't yet know whether it's the same people every year.

In the case of corporations, again, it fluctuates a great deal. I think the government had mentioned that about 300,000 corporations a year have capital gains. Not all of them are necessarily taxable, however. Although they did realize capital gains, they may have suffered losses or carried over previous losses to the current year.

The Chair Liberal Peter Fonseca

Thank you, Mr. Ste‑Marie.

If we can, with your indulgence, MP Davies, we'll try Mr. Moody again.

You may commence.

4:25 p.m.

Moodys LLP Tax Advisors, As an Individual

Kim G. C. Moody

Good afternoon, committee members.

My name is Kim Moody. I'm a fellow of the Chartered Professional Accountants of Alberta and the founder of Moodys Tax and Moodys Private Client, a significant boutique advisory firm in Canada. I have a very long history of serving the Canadian tax profession with a variety of significant leadership positions. I'm also a prolific writer and speaker on taxation matters, including writing a weekly column on taxation for the Financial Post.

Today, I want to talk to you on three key matters regarding these proposals.

The first is the policy underpinning the capital gains inclusion rate proposal. Canada has a long and interesting history on the taxation of capital gains, and one can have a respectful debate on whether the inclusion rate for capital gains should be 50%, two-thirds, 75% or even, as some on this panel have advocated, 100%. However, put me on record as an advocate for a low inclusion rate, like 50%, since that lower inclusion rate provides incentive and acknowledgement of a key issue that most people experience when they originally invest capital to generate such gains.

That key differentiator is risk. It takes guts to buy land, to build a building and to rent it out, to buy a farm or to start or buy a business. Most Canadians are not wired to accept that risk, unlike some who think that investing is risk free. It is not. This is important because the ones who can hang on and make something out of their risky venture usually have spinoff benefits for a large number of Canadians. Canada needs to encourage the creation of more entrepreneurs and investment in our country, and a lower capital gains inclusion rate is one of those policy tools that has historically helped with that.

This proposal is a simple tax grab, no more, no less. At a time when Canada has significant productivity challenges, the last thing we need to do is send signals to Canadians and to others that Canada is not the place to encourage entrepreneurship and/or invest their capital.

The other significant policy concern I have is that individuals are afforded a $250,000 annual threshold at the 50% inclusion rate, whereas most trusts and all corporations are not. That proposal blows a hole in the policy of integration, which has been a core principle of Canadian tax for decades and decades. In other words, taxpayers should be neutral, from a taxation perspective, as to where their investment dollars are placed when comparing various legal alternatives. Now, however, taxpayers will be encouraged to realize capital gains personally so as to be afforded the $250,000 threshold, and this will, of course, cause distortions that are simply not good.

Number two is the disingenuous messaging surrounding this proposal. By now, it is well known that the famous so-called “statistic” that this measure would only apply to 0.13% of Canadians, which appeared in the budget documents, is simply false and disingenuous. It still shocks me that a simple and misleading so-called “statistic” would be put forward by a government to try to justify its proposal.

When faced with criticism on that, the pivot was to say that the increase was necessary to deal with intergenerational fairness. The Prime Minister also advertised a new slogan in a cutesy but misleading video where he called it the “capital gains advantage”. Then, of course, there was the pivoting by the finance minister with her famous “higher fences” comment.

These are examples of horrible politics trying to justify poor policy. Like many Canadians, I find it divisive, misleading and disgusting. As I stated earlier, one can have a respectful debate on whether an inclusion rate is a good policy, but to denigrate that subject into divisive politics is disappointing, to say the least.

Third, and last, is the implementation of the proposal. Setting aside my strong dissent to this capital gains increase, I now will consider whether this proposal is well thought out and implemented. It is clear the capital gains inclusion rate proposal in the 2024 budget was half-baked. No draft legislation was available on budget day, with that proposal to be effective roughly 10 weeks later on June 25. On June 10, the imperfect first batch of draft legislation was released and, as expected, was very technically complex.

Given the complexity, this clearly was not enough time to advise Canadians on their affairs, since the effective date would come into effect almost immediately. The second batch was released on August 12, and it's imperfect. Late yesterday, the third batch was released, and of course most Canadians have not had the chance to review it yet.

Canadians should expect detailed draft legislation to accompany significant tax policy changes and proposals. One important fix the government could do would be to redirect some of the huge amount of money that has been allocated to the Canada Revenue Agency in recent years to the Department of Finance's tax legislation division—even a small amount of it to go there—because there are a small number of hard-working bureaucrats in that division who are expected to carry a very heavy load to properly draft this important legislation. Extra resources allocated to them would be a positive step in the right direction.

The second implementation concern is the fact that the only way for Canadian taxpayers to avoid retrospective taxation on their accrued gains up until June 25 was to trigger actual gains on their assets. The government budgeted for Canadians to do this. Think about that for even two seconds. In order to avoid—

The Chair Liberal Peter Fonseca

Mr. Moody, I am going to interrupt you. The sound is still not working. We've had to stop the interpretation. We'll see if that can be rectified. I don't know, but we'll see what we can do.

On that, we're going to go to MP Davies, please, for six minutes.

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Thank you to all the witnesses for being here.

Mr. Giroux, I'll begin with you. Budget 2024 noted:

...28.5 million Canadians are not expected to have any capital gains income, and 3 million are expected to earn capital gains below the $250,000 annual threshold. Only 0.13 per cent of Canadians with an average income of $1.4 million are expected to pay more personal income tax on their capital gains in any given year.

In your view, is this a reasonable estimate of the number of Canadians impacted by the capital gains inclusion measures announced in the budget?

4:30 p.m.

Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Yves Giroux

That seems to be a reasonable assessment of the number of Canadians directly affected by the capital gains inclusion rate. There are others who will be indirectly impacted. An example is when these corporations that are subjected to higher inclusion rates have lower dividends or profits to redistribute to their owners. However, the direct impact seems to be in line with what we have estimated ourselves.

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

I think those numbers are about individuals, not corporations. Is that correct?

4:30 p.m.

Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

Approximately how many Canadians does the PBO estimate will declare over $250,000 in capital gains in any year in their lives?

4:30 p.m.

Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Yves Giroux

We haven't done that study yet. That's why we want to do the linkages to see whether the 0.13% is made up of the same individuals or individuals coming back in these statistics over time, or if these are just one-offs.

In any given year, though, as Govindadeva indicated earlier, it fluctuates quite heavily. However, an average would be 40,000 to 50,000 individuals.

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

The budget also announced the Canadian entrepreneurs' incentive, which will “reduce the inclusion rate to 33.3 per cent on a lifetime maximum of $2 million in eligible capital gains.” The budget says:

Entrepreneurs with eligible capital gains of up to $6.25 million will be better off under these changes. In practice, these numbers will likely be higher to reflect the inflation adjustment for the lifetime capital gains exemption and the ability to spread capital gains over multiple years.

Do you agree with that statement?

4:35 p.m.

Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Yves Giroux

The statement is factual. It's looking at the difference in income tax paid with and without the higher inclusion rates and the fact that the entrepreneurs' incentive will increase, I think, by $200,000 per year until 2035. It's mathematically accurate.

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

If I'm a risk-taking entrepreneur in Canada, it's only if I make over $6.25 million in capital gains that I may have to pay more.

4:35 p.m.

Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Yves Giroux

That's once the entrepreneur's incentive is fully phased in.

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

Right. Okay. Thank you.

Now, I'll go to Ms. Miller. On May 13, Canadians for Tax Fairness published a report on productivity, which reads:

Against the backdrop of a Bank of Canada declared productivity emergency, economists, lobbyists, and corporate executives alike have decried the proposed change under the assertion that any tax increase on capital income will inevitably harm productivity by discouraging investment and innovation. These claims have been made without any evidence to support them, and yet, they have received broad media coverage. However, it is foolish to take the old trope that taxation hurts productivity as an article of faith when that data tells a different story.

Can you please tell us about that data and why you published that statement?

4:35 p.m.

Executive Director, Canadians for Tax Fairness

Katrina Miller

Sure. I appreciate the question.

We looked at our labour productivity, which is often how we view productivity in developed economies, and how that played out over the longitudinal set of data of our capital gains inclusion rates when they bounced from having no capital gains to 50% and 75%, and back down to 50%. What we found was that there was just absolutely no correlation whatsoever between the rate of capital gains taxation and our productivity.

We looked across a variety of economies across the globe and found the exact same data. Higher capital gains inclusion rates do not correlate with lower productivity.

What we know, from many longitudinal studies—some done by the London School of Economics—is that greater inequity in a society, which comes from tax systems like ours, has a regressive result on society. That, through things like the capital gains tax break, does in fact put a drag on productivity.

Something we would like to see explored in deeper ways in Canada is whether or not our low taxation of corporations and very wealthy people is providing a drag on our productivity right now as a country.

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

Thank you.

Mr. Lewis, the Canadian Medical Association says that because physicians often incorporate their medical practices and invest for retirement inside their corporations, their members will now face a higher inclusion rate on their capital gains, including on retirement investments.

In your view, are there alternate avenues for physicians to shield their retirement savings from taxation?

4:35 p.m.

Adjunct Professor of Health Policy, Simon Fraser University, As an Individual

Steven Lewis

Yes, the same mechanisms are available to all Canadians, and, in particular, higher-income Canadians who are able to save more.

The RRSP, of course, is the number one mechanism. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, if you're prudent and you're a physician.... Let's take the average physician in Alberta, who, according to the CMA's own reckoning, will have a pre-tax income of about $240,000. The maximum you need to make the maximum RRSP contribution is in the order of $155,000 to $160,000, I think—maybe a little bit higher.

Anyway, the incentive is to take as much money out of the corporation as is required to make the maximum RRSP contribution. You put in $32,000 a year. It grows tax free until you retire. If you do it every year, you get a $15,000, roughly, tax refund. It only costs you $17,000 to make that $32,000 investment. Do the simple spreadsheet. Over 35 years, at modest rates of return, 6% to 7%—if you bought the Toronto Stock Exchange index, for simplicity—you cannot help but have that grow to millions of dollars.

In the meantime, you still have money left in your corporation, which is lightly taxed as a small business. In Alberta, it would be 9% to 10%. You can invest that any way you want, some of which will generate capital gains, etc.

This is a tremendous tax advantage for an incorporated professional. I have the same incentive.

The Chair Liberal Peter Fonseca

Thank you very much. We're well over time.

We're getting into our second round now, and we're starting with MP Kelly, please.

4:40 p.m.

Conservative

Pat Kelly Conservative Calgary Rocky Ridge, AB

Thank you.

It sounds like we don't have Mr. Moody. I would like to, if I can, on the record, ensure that the clerk connects with him, so that we can have his full statement entered into evidence. It didn't sound like he had finished his statement. I would have many questions for him if he were available. In fact, I may ask him to expand, based on some of the questions that have come up, if he has additional remarks, so that we don't lose the benefit of his testimony over the interpretation issues.

With that, I'll turn to the Parliamentary Budget Officer. Thank you for being here today.

When you calculate the projected $17 billion over five years, is that just a straight-up calculation based on gains, taking the old rate and expanding the rate on what you would expect to receive?

4:40 p.m.

Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Yves Giroux

It's a bit more complicated than that.

We look at the expected growth in the economy . We assume a certain ratio of capital gains that will be reported for tax purposes. We look at past behaviour for the proportion of these taxable capital gains that are in excess of $250,000.

4:40 p.m.

Conservative

Pat Kelly Conservative Calgary Rocky Ridge, AB

Is it possible that this change will change investment behaviour that might impact that number?

4:40 p.m.

Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Yves Giroux

We account for some expected changes in behaviour through what we call elasticities. We have some details that we can go through if you want, either here or in writing to the committee.

Yes, we take into account changes in behaviour.

4:40 p.m.

Conservative

Pat Kelly Conservative Calgary Rocky Ridge, AB

Yes, if you can table that, it would helpful.

Let me go to Mr. Lewis.

In the very beginning of your opening statement, you acknowledged that this change will affect many Canadians, including yourself and many of the thousands, perhaps millions, of Canadians who are self-employed and have a corporation. Particularly the ones with corporations are the ones who do not have the $250,000 exemption. From your own research, do you know how many Canadians you expect...?

You said this will affect many Canadians, and it's your belief that it should. You think these particular Canadians should pay more taxes. I may not agree with you. In fact, I don't agree with you on that point.

However, could you share it with the committee if you have a number or if your own research has pegged how many will be affected by this change?

4:40 p.m.

Adjunct Professor of Health Policy, Simon Fraser University, As an Individual

Steven Lewis

I don't have the number, but we can speculate. Again, talking about self-employed people with Canadian privately controlled corporations, like me, there are 80,000 or 90,000 doctors in the country. There are a lot of lawyers in the country, and there are a whole lot of people with small businesses in the country. It would be, I'm guessing, in the low millions, potentially.

Also, yes, of course, we can have a good, honourable debate about what the overall tax revenue should be and, then, who should pay it. My point—